Equity Analyst Macro Trader, hobby economist & humble market student.
Joined August 2014
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3,072 Photos and videos
Retail is going to get slaughtered $SPCX
Jun 12
*SPACEX SHARES INDICATED TO OPEN 29% ABOVE IPO PRICE IN DEBUT
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Why are equities falling? The answer lies in the trend in inflation. See below.
substack.com/@marginofsafety…
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When investment banking fees trump revenue from equity research but the analyst still tips the market to how ridiculous the upgrade is by lowering his estimates. $TSLA
Jun 5
You can’t make this up…On their epic price target hike for $TSLA right before the SpaceX IPO, JP Morgan actually cut its 2027 estimates for Tesla.
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People keep pointing out the unprecedented level of investment in AI and ignore the fact the frontier labs that get to recursive self-improvement first will pull away from the competition. Essentially the ‘fast take-off’ scenario to AGI is unfolding.
Jun 4
Our internal data shows Claude is accelerating AI development—a possible path to recursive self-improvement, or AI autonomously building a more capable successor.
It’s happening faster than we thought, and the implications deserve greater attention. anthropic.com/institute/recu…
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Greg retweeted
Jun 2
The recent Ornn H100 index drop to $2.63 (-7.72%) is confusing. But mostly because it's a misleading index. Our H100 hourly has been in a $2.70–$3.01 band for 146 straight days. Ornn's last month alone: $1.80 → $3.22 → $2.63.
Why? OCPI is built only from printed transactions. But H100 on-demand has been sold out across our coverage for months. No continuous spot tape exists. What's left is a thin residual of bilateral trades from a narrow contributor set. Small N gets pushed around easily.
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No one could have predicted this….
Tesla says its Full Self-Driving software is up to 10 times safer than human drivers. But the figures don't withstand scrutiny – and staffers who trained the technology say it isn't close to safely delivering autonomous vehicles at scale reut.rs/4nZIuM8
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Tesla Robotaxi fleet in Texas less than one-tenth size of Waymo's, filings reveal cnbc.com/2026/05/28/tesla-ro…
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Staging public displays….theres a name for this
🔊 @c_kirkham tells the Reuters World News podcast Tesla ex-employees say its self-driving software fails at the basics and, 'Musk and other executives ... were pushing Tesla to stage sort of public displays of this fully autonomous capability' reut.rs/4fLkJVF
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This is great for OpenAI and worker productivity….but terrible for incumbents.
openai.com/index/building-se…
May 27
At @ThriveHoldings, we built a product with @OpenAI to automate tax prep for the 30 accounting firms we own across the country.
This season, it processed 7k returns. But what I think is more interesting is that the product meaningfully self-improved as accountants used it.
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Single dose therapies are going to change the healthcare landscape very quickly. Quality of life and longevity are going to continue to improve as well.
Question is: How do you price a therapy that improves your condition for life? $LLY
Today, we presented positive results from our investigational study at #EASCongress2026 and published in @NEJM, demonstrating the potential of our early-phase medicine designed to deliver LDL-cholesterol lowering effects in a single dose.
Learn more: go.lilly.com/2al4ap
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What do people from Korea and Taiwan think about index providers calling their countries ‘emerging’ when clearly they are more first world than many parts of Europe these days.
May 25
stole this from Oxford Economics. EM is getting shellacked when you remove TSMC, Samsung and SK Hynix.
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Anthropic is short compute and they have essentially stopped serving the free tier of retail. You literally can’t use it for more than 5 minutes before rate limits hit.
It’s a decision internally that helps free up compute for enterprise clients and helps profitability but hurts your consumer facing business probably forever since most people still haven’t heard of Claude and when they try it, it literally doesn’t work.
May 21
Anthropic has gone from being kinda a lone wolf in the ecosystem two years ago (with some key strategic investors) to everyone's favorite new partner.
@aaronpholmes @QianerLiu
theinformation.com/articles/…
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It’s a bubble crowd is not paying attention.
May 21
Nebius ($NBIS) raising on-demand pricing by 29%.
The 3Fourteen GPU Availability Index went from 80% at the beginning of the year to 9%.
GPU availability leads pricing.
B200 still at 0%...GH200 tightening further.
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