🌐📈 Based on Dec 2023 data, our long-range Fundamentals Forecaster predicts DR’s Pres. Luís #Abinader to win 62.1% of the vote share & gives him a 96% chance (93-99%, 90% c.i.) of re-election in 19 May 2024 #election! 🗳️🇩🇴 #RepublicaDominicana

Habemus EAD 3.0! 📈📉👉 osf.io/kmw7q/. Huge thx to EAP Country Leaders, @NSF & @Pollitik_Lab for supporting this project. Please spread the word to colleagues, students & non-academic partners! Stay tuned for news of our data viz tool...

We've finally published the study that drove the creation of @ExecApproval: "Executive Approval Dynamics in Presidential and Parliamentary Democratic Regimes" by C Martínez-Gallardo, GJ Love, J Hartlyn, @RyanECarlin1, @HellwigT & @MattSingerPOLS 🔗👇📈📉 journals.sagepub.com/doi/10.…

Gender, ideology, or both? Pollitik examined the polarized presidential approval among Gen Z in South Korea. The graph, based on data from @ExecApproval , shows the difference in approval ratings between young men and women in South Korea. @Politicx_

📢Next week in Berlin: What are the best research-based strategies to counter the rise of populism? Our Kiel-CEPR @cepr_org workshop will draw lessons for German policymakers by pooling research expertise. 23rd - 24th April at our Berlin office, hosted by Thiemo Fetzer @fetzert and Moritz Schularick @MSchularick. Program highlights: Panel and plenary discussion on “Putting defensive democracy into practice” with Sebastian Pittelkow @sepikow (NDR Investigative Unit @NDRrecherche) and Justus von Daniels (Correctiv @correctiv_org editor in chief), moderated by Franziska Klemenz @FreieReporterin (TableMedia @Table_Media_ editor). Online keynote and Q&A with Karin Prien @PrienKarin (Minister of Education, Science, Research and Culture of the Land Schleswig-Holstein, Deputy State Chairwoman of the CDU Schleswig-Holstein) Keynote by Catherine de Vries (Bocconi University @Unibocconi ) followed by a panel discussion on “How to stop dancing to the far right’s tune – programmatically and rhetorically” with her and Mark Schieritz (@schieritz ZEIT political section editor @zeitonline_pol ) moderated by Moritz Schularick. Research presentations by Heike Klüver @HeikeKluever , Vicente Valentim @ValentimVicente , Christoph Trebesch @Ch_Trebesch, Tommaso Nannicini @TNannicini , Werner Krause @krause_we, Laurenz Günther, Théo Konc, Jacob Edenhofer @edenhofer_jacob, Evelyne Hübscher @EveHubscher and Robert Gold. Full program here 👉 ifw-kiel.de/de/institut/vera…

Using inflation & presidential approval, Pollitik’s Fundamentals Forecaster predicts #Biden will win 53.3% of the vote share.📈🗳️While this may not guarantee his victory, no candidate has garnered this many votes and lost. 🇺🇸🦅🧐 @Election2024 #Biden #Trump

The numbers speak volumes! 📈 Using #AMLO aggregate approval from January, Pollitik’s Fundamentals Forecaster predicts a Sheinbaum vote share of 48.1% and a 68.28% chance of victory in Presidential election 🗳️ in #Mexico🇲🇽 #Sheinbaum2024 #ElectionForecast open.substack.com/pub/pollit…

After much blood, sweat, and tears...it's finally here! Lucky to work w/a great EAP core team of Jonathan Hartlyn, @HellwigT, @Rwillh11, Greg Love, Cecilia Martinez-Gallardo & @MattSingerPOLS. I'd be remiss if I didn't mention the EAP Country Team leaders NOT tagged in the pic 🧵