We're winning the league next year

Joined December 2022
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To finding many such friends and mentors
Jan 26
On Scott Adams. A man finds, to his astonishment, that he exists. After the elation of childhood wears off, he asks, who am I, why am I here, how does this work? These are hard questions, so after a brief struggle, he selects a readymade answer and goes about the motions of life. Scott Adams was not such a man. He was a live player, ever curious, intent on figuring out this simulation that he found himself in. From first principles, Scott unraveled, understood, and ultimately controlled his own reality. He hacked himself with affirmations, others with persuasion, the world with simultaneous sips. He explained people as moist robots, two movies happening on one screen, his world as Gods’ debris. He carved a personal mission to “be useful,” and made us all better writers, public speakers, and persuaders. He preached the footwear theory of motivation, the Adams Law of slow-moving disasters, the skill stack, systems over goals, and of course, the Dilbert Principle. Besides cartooning, philosophizing, and teaching, Scott rose to the occasion and displayed, “the one virtue that cannot be faked” - courage. Scott had the courage to speak honestly as he saw it - about Trump, about his nation, and about his time, even though it cost him friends, audience, money, and his ticket to polite society. Scott had true courage, the kind that makes you unpopular, the kind that is always and everywhere in short supply, At the end, as any hacker of reality, Scott covered all of his bases - he left as a Buddhist, a Christian, and a player in the Simulation. Scott, we didn’t get enough time with you, but you were a mentor and a marvel. You were useful and you were courageous. You were incompressible and indivisible. One of a kind, and generous with your drawing, writing, and speaking. Unlike your squealing critics in the chattering class, you will be read generations from now. On this earth there are many long-lived hells but no lasting heaven. Each heaven must be created and nurtured, ex-nihilo, from mind and from mud. Scott, you created a small heaven for us all, and to a larger heaven you go. A man finds, to his astonishment, that he no longer exists. He asks why, what it was for, and how will the new reality work? When the rest of us get there, we’ll find Scott, ever useful, ready to explain, having figured it all out. Notes: • First line paraphrasing Schopenhauer. • Courage quote via Taleb.
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Big reform for Indian markets. India has opened its listed stocks to foreign individual investors. Earlier, direct access through this route was mainly available to NRIs and OCIs. Now, it has been expanded to persons resident outside India. Why it matters: More foreign participation. Better liquidity. Deeper equity markets. Stronger global integration. This is a clear signal: India wants its equity market to become more global and more accessible. Potential beneficiaries include large caps, liquid midcaps, stock exchanges, brokers and depositories. But inflows may not be instant. Actual participation will depend on taxation, KYC, currency risk, valuations and global risk appetite. Long-term positive reform. Near-term impact: watch foreign inflow data.
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Replying to @snowmaker
I talk about this in "How to Do Great Work."
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When I was 14, social media was my escape hatch from mediocrity. I did not relate to anyone at school. Online, I found people on the other side of the world who thought the way I did. That changed my life. It is how I ended up working with one of Silicon Valley’s most respected investors and some of the smartest engineers in the world. It is how I started a podcast and got into rooms school would never have opened for me. The UK wants to close that door for every weird, ambitious, hyper online 14-year-old. They say it is “for safety”. But there is a much greater danger in being trapped inside schools, consuming state-mandated narratives, and waiting for permission from people whose entire worldview is obedience. The internet lets kids escape the factory before the factory stamps them into shape. It lets them find mentors, employers, collaborators, friends, customers, and ideas no school would ever give them. It lets them discover that the classroom is not the world, and the adults around them are not the ceiling. A social media ban for under-16s protects the enforcement regime, not the child. Age verification is KYC with a child-safety sticker on it. First they ask if you are old enough. Then they ask who you are. Then the anonymous internet is gone. The excuse is children. The prize is obedience. Fight back, Britain.
We are banning social media access for under 16s. These days kids must find their feet in a world where technology intrudes into every area of their life. I just can’t let that go on anymore. So we’re giving children their childhoods back.
Community note
The UK Government's 'careful review' of the research found a small correlation between children's use of social media and wellbeing, but no evidence of a causal effect: gov.uk/government/pub… assets.publishing.service.gov.uk/media/696e0b46…
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The case being made for Indian IT is that the business by its nature is to be conservative - cheap labour, margins, and a market which could punish R&D by eroding 30% value in one day. As true as it could be. IT has built our forex, the middle class, the ground the startup ecosystem stands on. Pretty much all IT company founders back startups with their own capital now - personal risk capital. The startup ecosystem must acknowledge this instead of blatant callouts. However there's a slippery slope in the argument - "They were built this way" is quickly becoming "so it's fine that they stay this way." Even a services business needs product-market fit. And PMF is not permanent - it erodes, and finding the next one takes innovation. The fiduciary logic being used to justify the conservatism is the same logic that now defies it - protecting shareholder value. The traditional headcount-arbitrage model is not the same anymore - it needs innovation. The shareholder value they optimise for is exactly what erodes if they don't innovate now.
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We think the Economics Nobel Prize confers some kind of real economic insight about how a poor country becomes rich. It does not. If you want real insight about how a developing nation gets rich, study Lee Kuan Yew of Singapore, study Japan, study South Korea, study Taiwan, study post-Mao China. They have all lifted people up from poverty, produced widely shared prosperity but they do not produce Nobel Laureates in Economics. The book "How Asia Works" by Joe Studwell is a great read. Tldr; ignore Nobel Laureates in Economics. That is not the path to wealth.
Jun 14
#WATCH | On the Nobel laureate Abhijit Banerjee's statement that he does not have faith in Indian GDP numbers, India's Chief Economic Advisor (CEA), Dr V. Anantha Nageswaran, says, "... If I want the Indian economy to be bad and the statistics confirm it, then I am quiet. If the statistics don't confirm my belief or wish that the Indian economy is actually in a bad state, then the statistics are unreliable. I find this inconsistency difficult to accept." Watch the full podcast at: youtu.be/3g0VCR3KSlk?si
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The stupidity of these @Stanford students to take the greatest opportunity for equality in humanity ever and to really free humanity and go walk out on @google and @sundarpichai that's pioneered that. Biased, idiotic, short-sighted and very selfish. Selfish because they ignored the bottom 3 billion people on this planet that could benefit from AI and they are worried about their misinformed selfish self-interest. youtube.com/watch?v=wf74VXKT…
Stanford grads walk out as Google CEO Sundar Pichai takes the stage as commencement speaker. No mention of AI, unlike other uni speakers getting booed down this year. Story for @sfgate shortly
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Indians are blaming Infy/Murthy/Nandan for a lack of home-grown LLM. But that blame is misplaced. Infy/Murthy/Nandan could never start an AI company. They had money and they could have fund something. But that again, is their money and why should they risk it? The real culprit here is Amitabh Kant and other IAS like him. These are the people, why I left India and started two companies in the US. These are the people, why much of Indian talent left to work for US based companies. And these folks did well. Let's say the government gives me $10B and ask me to set up an AI lab in India. Am I qualified to do it? YES. Will I do it? HELL NO And you would ask why? Some would say that I have a cozy life in the US. Some would say, I have deep connection in the US, including family. All of that is correct but does not pin point the reason why I wont start a company in India. The real reason is Babu. Unlike, many In India who think competing for 1000 seats using some bullshit essay writing contest makes Babu some wizard, I have not come across one, I will hire as an analyst. Under no circumstance, I am gonna report to a babu (Happy report to Dharmendra Pradhan or Smriti Irani though). Also, under no circumstances, I will accept a position where I am unable to fire and put an IAS in jail if they reported to me and indulged in some corruption. Till this babu problem is fixed, no NRI would come to India. If I were the CIA or CCP, trying to ensure that India does not gain AI independence, I would make every effort to protect Babu fiefdom.
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Delhi is a fifteen minute city if your errands are eating slop pasta at a front for money laundering, buying a slop sherwani at a front for money laundering and witnessing the crumbling of our social fabric at a front for money laundering
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I learnt a long time ago that there is a big difference between making a living and making a life. In the times to come, AI will get increasingly better at the skills that we've used to make a living. Our imperative will be to instead make lives. Not artificial lives. Or artificial lives. But our own lives and of those we love. As machines get better at answering, and solving what they are asked, our work is to get better at asking, at making, creating, and deciding which questions are worth a life, and refusing to outsource that.
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So only reason Toney is in the squad is to take pens then?
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bro immigrated from Mexico and took a $28/hr contract welding job in 2015. didn't even know what SpaceX was. they gave him $10,000 in stock and let him buy more through payroll deductions. that stake is now worth $880,000. and he's one of 4,400 employees who became millionaires on Friday. welders. technicians. cafeteria staff.
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Sir, they have blocked access to the very AI models you said we should share instead of build
India doesn't need to lead the world in building the most advanced AI models. But it must lead in ensuring benefits of AI are widely shared. @rvenk and I have an op-ed in The @EconomicTimes economictimes.indiatimes.com…
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To train a GPT class 1T model from scratch - including failed runs, data acq clean rlhf, post-training, team/people will likely req $250M of compute on an aggressive 3-4mo schedule (i.e. more reserved GPUs), $500-600M all-in IF you do a dense one. MoE fp8 will cut costs by 1/10th depending on how many active params you have. If you want SOTA however, the budgets go significantly higher on test-time compute, post-training RL, and data/synthetic generations..and v. high on talent. Maybe $2-4B all-in. After that comes serving the model. The talent is key to get to SOTA/beat it - and then you have to ensure this is useful enough to have inference vol over time - for which the capital will come if there is usage / TAM. So this is not as much about raising $50-60B, or raising it all at once as the OP says - we are investors in mistral, sarvam, reflection and anthropic - and they all scaled capital over time as models got adoption, but the early bottleneck is more on talent GPUs at that scale where you can do interesting things.
Stop making loose comments. A foundational model needs 50/60b $ Huge hyper cloud capacity with hundreds of billion $
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PM @narendramodi Sir we need an India AI Mission under you with @NandanNilekani as vice chair and others from the private sector and govt. to Help India tackle the AI Revolution. We are way behind and need a national mission to get going quickly. Existing govt programs are too slow, way too small to make any large impact. We need an annual 50000 cr fund for deep tech and AI, a 200,000 cr ELGS Guarantee Fund to build Hyper cloud, hardware and chips. @AshwiniVaishnaw @nsitharaman @PiyushGoyal @FinMinIndia @RBI We need a Very Large National Mission. @AmitShah @amitmalviya
This is big: all access to Mythos and Fable AI models disabled for everyone outside America. First thoughts: 1. Technology is the ultimate weapon. National sovereignty, national security, all of it is now about technology. 2. Globalization is dead and Bharat must find her own way ahead. We must keep these two ideas in mind. What can our government do right now? Ensure that orgs in India embrace smaller models, both Indian and Chinese open source ones. With a bit of effort, we can make them work. Anyway, why pay money to people who don't even want to sell to you? We must deepen our R&D. Sarvam has been on it and we have been on it but remember that the latest models cost not only huge GPU budgets to train, the GPUs themselves are restricted. So we can't afford the scale of money (of the order of $100 billion to even get in the game!) and even if we could come up with the money, we can't get all the GPUs. I would not like to ask the government to fund tens of billions of dollars on this anyway - the money has far better uses. Zoho has been pursuing alternative R&D approaches that are far, far less expensive but by its nature cutting edge R&D takes time and we are patient. I am confident we will get there. Any remaining people in India who have delusions about globalization should wake up now.
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Shankar is a global investor and has many avenues of investment. I am the Indian frog in the Indian well and I feel that a bull market is already under way in India. Generally we have never lost money buying Indian stocks in a currency crisis. Times change, wars end, sentiment changes and great opportunities go away…I can see a massive tech and venture capital ecosystem building in India fruits of which will be seen in times to come. Indians are a skilled people and we will see many entrepreneurs build many great cos and offer opportunities for investors to become rich. Darr ke aagey…
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There was a lot of concern when we had filed the DRHP as to why we are investing in additional capacity already. Back then, we were at 30-40% utilization, and investing in capacity which would 2x or 3x that, seemed like a crazy idea. Fast forward to today: we've crossed 90% utilization and will have to try and find ways to go above 100% in the coming weeks! The new factory can't go live fast enough! Excited about Factory 3.0 at Chhatrapati Sambhajinagar now
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AI will disproportionately benefit ADHD minds because it externalizes the boring, parts of cognition like planning, sequencing, drafting, remembering, prioritizing and amplifies the parts ADHD minds often cook at: rapid association, novelty-seeking, pattern recognition, emotional intensity, and divergent synthesis
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Good take My guess is - demand for intelligence is near infinite - but 80% of workloads will be running on 99% cheaper models within 12-18 months - 20% of workloads will still run on latest gen models where IQ maxing is important (scientific breakthroughs, higher level ochestrator agents?) - rough analogy might be what % of macbooks or gaming PCs sold have the maxed out specs for CPU/GPU, prices are falling much faster than Moore's law here though - this leads me to think the limiting factor will be energy and compute, not better models At Coinbase we're working hard on routing prompts to cheaper models where appropriate, and in some cases have been able to keep costs roughly flat, while token usage continues to grow exponentially.
The most basic way AI could blow up imo. I'm not saying it does but this is the most obvious way I can see it happening - Per seat subscriptions are massively subsidized. The flat fee was priced way below what heavy usage actually costs - For real business use you have to move to the API anyway. Data protections, work integrations and compliance officer approval - On the API you pay metered rates, and businesses are burning credits way faster than the per seat pricing ever led them to expect - This is everywhere right now. Internally for us, Codex users, Uber torching its entire 2026 AI budget in 4 months, the Microsoft comments. Just go try an API I shared more on this here: x.com/Shaughnessy119/status/… - And I don't think most businesses have the money to keep paying increasing API rates without a real change to how they operate (caps needed) - Because they have a cheap alternative. They can reach open source models through any aggregator (OpenRouter, Venice, Baseten, Together) and still get strong privacy. Venice private data centers, or E2EE/TEE serving GLM 5.1. More on open source inference provider raises here: x.com/Shaughnessy119/status/… - And the discount is enormous. DeepSeek V4 codes within a hair of Opus on SWE bench at roughly 1/30th the price, and the cheapest open models run closer to 1/100th - Chinese labs open source frontier grade models. The model is the single biggest cost an inference provider has, and they get it for free - This idea dies if China goes closed source. That is actually bullish web2 AI labs, because if everyone is closed you pay up for the best intelligence. China goes closed source if they are tired of giving away an asset and they want the revenue and data flow to train new models - Is this showing up in web2 AI lab revenue yet? No. Revenue is off the charts. Anthropic went from 9B to 47B run rate in five months - So go forward, what happens? - I think revenue slowly starts leaking to the open source inference providers (see Venice usage, OpenRouter's $113M raise, Baseten is raising at $11B or triple its valuation in three months, on revenue that went from $200M to $600M annualized in a single quarter) - It doesnt move overnight, but it caps the labs ability to raise prices, and margins are already deeply negative. OpenAI is reportedly running near negative 122% - With margins that bad there is no cash flow, so the labs are fully dependent on outside capital to buy GPUs, train models, and keep subsidizing usage (I.e. see Google tapping $80b equity sale, granted 30b for employee RSU taxes. Clearly they think Equity is overvalued or you wouldn't sell it) - The break comes when that capital stops. Pricing is capped so margins cant improve, and the moment investors lose conviction on payback, the whole flow reverses - Why would they lose conviction on payback? Back to the start - the inability to improve margins or get businesses to pay more - This is also limiting, if we start making new drugs with AI or create entirely new businesses, you better believe people will pay up to the max for AI usage
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