How do we protect and grow our wealth for an unknown future? For the past decade, we’ve been researching and working on the answer to that question....The Cockroach Approach! Learn More and Download the Cockroach Approach Paper! mutinyfund.com/cockroach/

I could listen to a pod on this quote alone haha. The painful frictions inherent in marketing and intellectually honesty was another great track. @jasoncbuck @InfiniteL88ps

What a treat for my Sunday morning entertainment. 2 of my most favourite people in the finance game sharing pearls. Matt - I promise never to mispronounce your surname ever again! @kevinmuir @CultishCreative THE WILE E. COYOTE MOMENT (Guest: Matt Zeigler) youtu.be/1gseAVFN400?si=NjQP…

Euan Sinclair. 27 years trading volatility. phd physicist. wrote the book on vol trading, literally, it's called Volatility Trading. on a coin that pays 51 heads / 49 tails: "over an infinite time period, you're going to make an infinite amount of money. but in any given flip, you're not going to know if you've won or lost." a 51% edge is a money machine across a million flips and visually indistinguishable from noise across 10. most of the strategies that get killed in month 1 weren't broken. the sample was just too small to see the signal. most of the ones that get scaled into ruin weren't real edges either. same problem, opposite direction. position sizing is the only thing that lets a real edge survive long enough to show up. "you can't let PNL of such a volatile process drive your theory behind your trades"

If you weren't there this year, you might want to find your way to NYC for MacroMinds 2027.

Still writing up the many disparate thought threads sparked while listening to @jasoncbuck and @jposhaughnessy One of the most nourishing and intellectually stimulating conversations I’ve listened to as a fly on the wall in some time. Great job, Jason. open.spotify.com/episode/5Rm…

@KrisAbdelmessih drawing parallels to the '90s (not the famous Matthew McConaughey movie this time)

One of the best podcasts I’ve listened to, not just for the insights (there are plenty), but for the honesty and free-flowing convo. Both @jasoncbuck and @jposhaughnessy were excellent. Despite being unstructured, the transitions between topics felt natural and seamless. 1/2

I know how i will be spending the semiquincentennial. Preordered!

“I actually think Bitcoin is one of the most uninteresting assets right now”

“The optimal time is five and a half minutes.” Data says hockey teams should pull the goalie long before they do. So why did Cliff Asness write about it for the Journal of Portfolio Management? Because investors do the same thing all the time.

When people say, ‘If the market’s down 50%, I’m a buyer,’ I laugh hysterically. You have no idea. The lived experience, day to day, plays on your emotions much harder than people could ever imagine.” ~@jasoncbuck

We're back with an absolutely stacked line-up! 📆🥞

“The P&L every day is black and white. We have a connection with reality that you may not get in a narrative religion where the end times are down there tomorrow, always tomorrow.” ~@jasoncbuck

It’s a brilliant turn of phrase by @bportnoy_

“If you have true portfolio diversification, there’s always a part of your portfolio that you hate.” ~@jasoncbuck

Some Saturday musings on turnkey return stacking / portable alpha solutions... Consider two fund choices: 100% S&P 500 100% Managed Futures or 100% US Bonds 100% Managed Futures At the portfolio level, both allow you to do the same thing: stack managed futures. But there are some very important trade-offs. Let's assume that both implement their beta with 75% cash securities 25% futures. Right now, the financing in S&P 500 futures is approximately SOFR 88bp while in US Treasuries it is approximately SOFR. That means implementing the structure on top of equity beta has an invisible 22bp drag (88bp x 25%). In fact, S&P 500 futures are almost always more expensive than Treasury futures and have traded substantially over the SOFR 30-50bp historical average for the last several years. Furthermore, if you ask people outright which structure is "riskier" (e.g. which one is more likely to face a substantial margin call), almost everyone will say the equity plus managed futures approach. And yet equity plus managed futures seems to absolute dominate bonds plus managed futures in sales. Why? I'd argue it's all about the perceived line item risk. Equities are already risky... so what if we add something else on top? And when you combine stocks managed futures, neither dominates the return. Bonds on the other hand are supposed to be safe and steady. Adding managed futures on top adds substantial volatility. Plus the managed futures dominate the variance, making the alternative return really stand out. That line-item risk has an increasingly costly trade-off though (especially if you're implementing the beta only with futures...)

“Everything I thought I knew and the genius I thought I was crumbles beneath you, and you realize your mortality. And probably more the opposite: you think you’re a complete moron.” ~@jasoncbuck

A great conversation with two great people👊 @jasoncbuck @jposhaughnessy

Don't want to jinx it, but Eric's fund is on its way to 7 years of positive returns. 2020: 16.31% 2021: 20.06% 2022: 3.71% 2023: 5.76% 2024: 13.15% 2025: 4.12% 2026 YtD: 16.50% (Yes, yes, I'm well aware it's an absolutely arbitrary measurement period. But I'm still gonna celebrate a peer when I can.)