CORRECTED: ‘26 House Predictions Thanks to those of you who pointed out some of the color code errors I made on the map yesterday. Several of the OH & VA districts were the opposite of what they should’ve been, and I had AZ-02 (not 01) as a Dem pickup.

America at 250, Part II - 100 Years In The 1876 House elections coincided with the contentious election of Rutherford Hayes, who lost the popular vote by 3% while winning the EC by a single vote. 10 years after the Civil War and with Reconstruction coming to an end, Rs gained >30 seats from both significant wins in the Northeast & Midwest, as well as through new seats in the rapidly expanding nation. Dems made gains in the South as the carpetbaggers departed and black voters began suffering disenfranchisement - the beginning of the Solid South. Mappers: @MadLibHatter @bluearrowMaps @SageOfTime1 @Thorongil16 @DemHackMaps @JMilesColeman @RJ_maps @cinyc9 @redwoodcntymaps @NinetyDegreeZ @HugeGuilfordCo @tencor_7144 @josh_metcalf @nnjpolitics @Leonz0_o @ModRightMaps

I remember one of the reasons Rep Steve Southerland (R, FL-02) lost even in the GOP wave of 2014: He threw a men-only fundraiser (which he later compared to a women’s “lingerie party”) that instructed participants to “tell the Misses not to wait up.” 🤦🏻‍♂️

On Wednesday, David Jolly, the frontrunner to be the Democratic nominee for Florida Governor, announced Gwen Graham would be his running mate Gwen, the daughter of Governor/Senator Bob Graham, came on the scene when she flipped the GOP-held #FL02 in the 2014 midterms #flapol

With redistricting finally winding down, here's how the U.S. House map is likely to change between 2024 and 2026.

NEW — Republicans made the House map redder, but Democrats remain clearly favored in VoteHub’s 2026 House forecast. @ZacharyDonnini breaks down how redistricting shifted the battlefield and what Democrats need to retake the majority. votehub.com/2026/06/12/repub…

something to monitor as time goes by in Maine: Platner's share may drop compared to previous polls, but does Collins also rise? If the former happens, but not the latter, maybe there is some sort of "shy Platner" effect Diff kind of race, but VA-AG polling provides an example

Who can guess the election where Rs won both these races with the same vote share?

A dozen ratings changes in today's @InsideElections! The five biggies: PA8 (Bresnahan, R) Tilt GOP➡️ Toss-up WI3 (Van Orden, R) Tilt GOP➡️ Toss-up NJ7 (Kean, R) Toss-up➡️Tilt Democratic OH1 (Landsman, D) Toss-up➡️ Tilt Democratic IA3 (Nunn, R) Lean GOP➡️ Tilt GOP

NEW Crystal Ball Senate Rating Changes Alaska Leans R to Toss-up NC Toss-up to Leans D Ohio Leans R to Toss-up GOP still favored because they only need one of the four Toss-ups, while Ds need all four

Happy belated birthday to former Rep Roscoe Bartlett, who turned 100 on 6/3!! After an unsuccessful House run in ‘82, Bartlett won his seat (MD-06) in ‘92 when incumbent Beverly Byron was defeated by a more liberal Dem in the primary. Bartlett served until his defeat in ‘12. Mappers: @MadLibHatter @bluearrowMaps @SageOfTime1 @Thorongil16 @DemHackMaps @JMilesColeman @RJ_maps @cinyc9 @redwoodcntymaps @NinetyDegreeZ @HugeGuilfordCo @tencor_7144 @josh_metcalf @nnjpolitics @Leonz0_o @ModRightMaps

No surprise here. The FL SC is mainly DeSantis appointees, so there was very little chance it would be overturned. This will be the map used this year, which reduces the number of Dem-won seats from 8 to 4.

Yeah, if Graham didn’t go down in 2014 at the apex of the Tea Party, he wasn’t losing in 2020 or this year. Notice the 4th place finisher in that ‘14 primary. 🤭

Totally random post on this primary night (lol), but honest question: Chuck Grassley won blowout reelections in ‘04 & ‘10 in solid environments against sacrificial 🐑 Dems. While he would’ve won in ‘06 or ‘08, what would his MOV have been?

NEW @LarrySabato's Crystal Ball: @kkondik analyzes the overall House map as redistricting winds down. How big of an edge did Republicans get through the redraws? centerforpolitics.org/crysta…

noted in this morning's Crystal Ball -- I'll withhold judgment until all votes are in, but when the R share of the two-party vote is below 50 in CA top-two primaries, they don't win

TPSI poll | 6/8 LV US Senate Maine 2026 🟥Susan Collins 43.7% (incumbent) 🟦Graham Platner 43.1% Undecided 13.2% — When voters are informed of Graham Platner’s scandals 🟦Graham Platner 48.2% 🟥Susan Collins 40.1% (incumbent) Undecided 11.7% Link to poll: open.substack.com/pub/tpsiof…

While no one believes Mike Rounds (R-SD) is remotely vulnerable, his first race (even in a GOP wave) was a three-way contest that saw him barely crack 50%. Any chance we see a similar result this year, where Rounds wins comfortably but has an unimpressive vote share? 🤔

Tallahassee Democrat: Gwen Graham named as David Jolly's running mate for Florida Governor by Tallahassee pastor Jolly is seeking the Democratic nomination for Florida governor tallahassee.com/story/news/p…

If you believe this “poll,” then you also believe these will be the real results of the ID Senate race this year. 😏

America at 250, Part I - 50 Years In After the disputed election of 1824 (where John Quincy Adams was elected by the House), the Democratic-Republican party split into the Jacksonian and Anti-Jacksonian parties, after Andrew Jackson, the 1824 runner-up. The Jacksonians (aka the modern Dem party) were able to gain 9 seats over their rivals, who would soon develop into the Whigs, then the modern Republican party. Mappers: @MadLibHatter @bluearrowMaps @SageOfTime1 @Thorongil16 @DemHackMaps @JMilesColeman @RJ_maps @cinyc9 @redwoodcntymaps @NinetyDegreeZ @HugeGuilfordCo @tencor_7144 @josh_metcalf @nnjpolitics @Leonz0_o @ModRightMaps