Military History Historian. Retired USAF. I enjoy discussing diplomatic/political/military history. Also, a devoted SF Giants fan.
Joined July 2023
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A must-read article by @HooverInst Stephen Kotkin illustrating how to meet the challenges of today’s authoritarian regimes by using history as a guide. The good news is that those challenges can be overcome.
foreignaffairs.com/china/wea…
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KEY TAKEAWAY: The leaked text of the US-Iran memorandum of understanding, if accurate, indicates that Iran has emerged from the conflict in a stronger strategic position. ⬇️🧵(1/7)
NEW: Multiple sources published what appears to be the text of the US-Iran agreement. Neither the United States nor Iran has officially published the text of the agreement at this time. The leaked text of the agreement, if accurate, indicates that Iran has emerged from the conflict in a stronger strategic position, however. ⬇️
The MoU reportedly grants Iran significant economic relief, which Iran would likely use to try to reconstitute its missile, drone, and nuclear programs, as well as the Axis of Resistance. The MoU states that Iran could receive further economic relief by fulfilling its commitments in the MoU and reaching a final agreement that addresses key nuclear issues. ISW-CTP has not observed any indications that Iranian decision-makers are willing to make concessions on the nuclear issues that would be included in a final agreement, however.
Iran will likely try to exploit the agreement’s seemingly ambiguous language about the Strait of Hormuz to try to enforce its control over shipping through the strait. The reported text of the agreement does not explicitly bar Iran from “managing” the strait, and Iran could therefore continue to insist on vessels using its illegal traffic separation scheme in Iranian territorial waters and paying “fees” to the IRGC Navy.
The Iranian regime is interpreting the clause in the agreement about a ceasefire “on all fronts” as a requirement for Israel to cease operations against Hezbollah and withdraw from Lebanon. This interpretation is part of a broader Iranian effort to preserve Hezbollah by trying to secure Israel’s capitulation in Lebanon.
The reported MoU terms indicate that Iran structured the agreement in a way to try to limit the United States’ ability to impose renewed pressure on Iran during the 60-day negotiations period and thereby make it more challenging for the United States to extract concessions from Iran during the negotiations.
Iranian officials and media are largely framing the US-Iran MoU as an Iranian victory that codifies Iran’s military achievements. The Iranian regime’s English-language media outlet, Press TV, argued on June 16 that the MoU is not simply a ceasefire, but rather represents the “political codification of a battlefield reality.”
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Nuclear Issues: ISW-CTP has not observed any indications that Iranian decision-makers are willing to make concessions on the nuclear issues that would be included in a final agreement.
The current MoU reiterates Iran’s commitment not to produce a nuclear weapon. Iranian officials have historically insisted that Iran does not seek to produce a nuclear weapon, but the regime has nevertheless developed in recent years the latent capability to develop a nuclear weapon if it decides to do so.
NEW: Multiple sources published what appears to be the text of the US-Iran agreement. Neither the United States nor Iran has officially published the text of the agreement at this time. The leaked text of the agreement, if accurate, indicates that Iran has emerged from the conflict in a stronger strategic position, however. ⬇️
The MoU reportedly grants Iran significant economic relief, which Iran would likely use to try to reconstitute its missile, drone, and nuclear programs, as well as the Axis of Resistance. The MoU states that Iran could receive further economic relief by fulfilling its commitments in the MoU and reaching a final agreement that addresses key nuclear issues. ISW-CTP has not observed any indications that Iranian decision-makers are willing to make concessions on the nuclear issues that would be included in a final agreement, however.
Iran will likely try to exploit the agreement’s seemingly ambiguous language about the Strait of Hormuz to try to enforce its control over shipping through the strait. The reported text of the agreement does not explicitly bar Iran from “managing” the strait, and Iran could therefore continue to insist on vessels using its illegal traffic separation scheme in Iranian territorial waters and paying “fees” to the IRGC Navy.
The Iranian regime is interpreting the clause in the agreement about a ceasefire “on all fronts” as a requirement for Israel to cease operations against Hezbollah and withdraw from Lebanon. This interpretation is part of a broader Iranian effort to preserve Hezbollah by trying to secure Israel’s capitulation in Lebanon.
The reported MoU terms indicate that Iran structured the agreement in a way to try to limit the United States’ ability to impose renewed pressure on Iran during the 60-day negotiations period and thereby make it more challenging for the United States to extract concessions from Iran during the negotiations.
Iranian officials and media are largely framing the US-Iran MoU as an Iranian victory that codifies Iran’s military achievements. The Iranian regime’s English-language media outlet, Press TV, argued on June 16 that the MoU is not simply a ceasefire, but rather represents the “political codification of a battlefield reality.”
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I suggest reading @RadioFreeTom article, which highlights the complete lack of direction or understanding concerning the ME exhibited by the President while in France for the G7 Meetings. Below is an excerpt from the article.
“It suggests that Trump, more than ever, is unable to fathom what’s happening in the world around him and has been reduced to turning all of his previous statements upside down: A regime that was once the epitome of evil is now a reasonable partner; nuclear material that once represented an existential threat to America might now sit in Iran forever; Syria and Iran and Israel and Lebanon will now do things that they would never do, just because he wants them to.”
None of this makes any sense, except as desperate rationalizations from a man who cannot face facts and admit defeat. The president of the United States seems to be losing his grip on reality itself.
theatlantic.com/newsletters/…
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The president’s comments at the G7 summit revealed that he doesn’t understand the war he started—or the words that come out of his own mouth.
theatlantic.com/newsletters/…
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18h
First signs are emerging that commercial shipping is preparing for a Strait of Hormuz reopening.
VLCCs signaling the UAE as their next destination are tracked sailing from as far as the South China Sea and across the Indian Ocean. At least 23 VLCCs are currently heading for the UAE ports of Khor Fakkan or Fujairah based on their AIS messages, joining at least 30 already at anchorage there.
Although more than 550 stranded ships west of Hormuz have yet to exit, including a reported 60 laden tankers, shipowners are readying for inbound transits to load oil once the Memorandum of Understanding to reopen the strait is signed on Friday.
Watch for evolving behavior as regional transit patterns shift.
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22h
The US-Iran deal may end this phase of the war and allow more traffic through Hormuz. But it does more to entrench than to end the larger US-Iran confrontation--and it won't undo the geopolitical effects the war has wrought.
@opinion @AEI
bloomberg.com/opinion/articl…
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Jun 16
New out from @CIMSEC: "China is Rehearsing More Than Amphibious Landings," by @AndrewSErickson, @mhbernardo14, Jason Wang, and Pei-Jhen Wu.
cimsec.org/china-is-rehearsi…
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Jun 16
Back at those War College places, they make the students read Clausewitz, who described war as "an act of violence to compel our opponent to fulfill our will."
I don't see Iran fulfilling anyone's will but their own here.
Jun 15
Iran’s top 3 layers of leadership is gone. It’s Navy at the bottom of the sea. It’s Air Force and Air defense rendered impotent. Over 30K IRGC / soldiers killed. What does the Fuck victory look like in your eyes…the entire nation vaporised by nuclear attacks?
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Jun 16
People who wonder "How could Trump have won two elections?" have to face up to what a dumpster fire of ideological lunacy and incompetence the Democratic party is. The Democrats are Trump's secret weapon, just like Trump is theirs. Elections are now about finding ways to convince enough swing voters that you are slightly less dangerously insane than the alternative. That's where we are.
The Dems midterm warning sign is pretty clear:
There are high quality polls (Ipsos, MU Law, & NBC), which show Dems shy of their generic ballot benchmark in past wave years.
Their Dems avg. lead is just 3 pts... & Dems need a 3-4 pt win to take the House given redistricting.
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Our thoughts and prayers are with the families, loved ones and fellow servicemembers of those aboard today’s Air Force B-52 crash at Edwards Air Force Base.
‼️ Official release regarding today's B-52 crash at Edwards. Our thoughts and prayers are with the families and unit members at this time.
More information will be released as it becomes available.
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Jun 15
Meanwhile, Venezuelans remind us that their "liberation" was phony too ft.com/content/f121babc-838d… via @ft
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Jun 15
Suddenly, this fraudulent blowhard feigns concern about congressional approval and a strict reading of the Constitution. Every day with this gang, it’s another betrayal of principle, another lie, another sophistry. The GOP has proven itself as unfit to govern as the Democrats.
Jun 15
Mark Levin seeks to undermine Trump's deal with Iran by insisting it should be a "treaty" that must be approved by two-thirds of the Senate.
(Trump can launch the war without Congress but can't end it without them, according to Levin.)
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NEW: US and Iranian sources appear to have diverging interpretations of some aspects of the US-Iran agreement, which will likely complicate the implementation of the agreement and the next phase of negotiations.
The United States and Iran signed an agreement to end the war on June 14 and are expected to sign the agreement on June 19. The full text of the agreement has not been published at this time.
IRGC-affiliated media claimed that Iran will pause imposing "fees” on vessels transiting through the Strait of Hormuz for the next 60 days, but added that Iran intends to charge vessels “service fees” after the 60-day period. US Vice President JD Vance stated, in contrast, that the United States expects the Strait of Hormuz to be open “in a toll-free way for the long term.” Iran has consistently insisted that the “fees” it is imposing on vessels are not tolls and that shipping through the strait is therefore “toll-free.”
US officials also denied Iranian claims that the United States will release some frozen Iranian assets upon the signing of the agreement on July 19 and insisted that the release of Iranian assets is dependent on Iran’s implementation of the agreement.
IRGC-affiliated media argued that Iran must “strictly implement its interpretation” of the agreement and disregard the United States’ “nonsense interpretations,” which highlights the apparent divergence between Iran and the United States’ understandings of the deal.
ISW-CTP will provide further analysis about the US-Iran agreement in its June 15 update.
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Jun 15
In all the many strong takes on the MOU in which we actually don’t yet have any of the definitive details, (and I am guilty of jumping to assumptions as well), let’s all just remember to ask one key additional question – what about the Iranian people? What about Trump‘s statement in mid January saying “help is on its way.” For many of us – this was the most important issue, not even nukes, etc….yet, helping the Iranian people, pftttt, it’s gone.
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Jun 15
The disgrace is on him and the sycophants who even now still defend him. He should never have made the “help is on the way” pledge, a promise he couldn't keep given the unacceptable massive cost in U.S. military and Iranian civilian lives a serious war of liberation would entail.
Jun 15
The Atlantic is terrible, but their analysis rings true. Trump told the people of Iran that help was coming, and now he’s backing out. This is the most disgraceful thing my nation has done since it allowed Saigon to fall, by choice.
apple.news/An4Px3SepRgSi2McH…
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Jun 14
UFC fighter Bryce Mitchell criticizes Trump's White House UFC fight:
Our government is desecrating its role in society by hosting sporting events. Our tax dollars and resources are funding this operation. The government is supposed to protect us, not entertain us.
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Jun 15
Aristotle: “Tyranny favor[s] the baser sort, in the sense that a tyrant loves to be flattered, and no man of free spirit will oblige him. Respectable men…refrain from flattery” (Politics, Book V, Chapter XI)
Jun 14
Marco Rubio compared UFC to landing a man on the moon. There's nothing comparable to it.
This is the poison of working for Donald Trump. Every time you get behind a microphone, you've got to figure out a way to kiss his behind.
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Jun 14
Westerners were just in Russia proclaiming it the bulwark of Christian civilization. Tonight, Russia bombed the Kyiv Pechersk Lavra, one of Ukraine's most revered Christian sites.
Jun 14
Kyiv’s iconic Lavra Monastery is on fire after Russian missiles and Shahed attack drones struck Ukraine’s capital tonight.
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Jun 15
This attack tonight on the Monastery by the Russians in Kyiv makes no sense. It has a parallel with the bombing of London’s St. Paul’s in 1940 by the Germans. It won’t work. Someone tell me the military necessity of the Russian attack. There is none.
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NEW: The United States and Iran reached an agreement on June 14 that apparently calls for a ceasefire on all fronts, Iran to “open” the Strait of Hormuz, and the United States to lift its naval blockade on Iranian ports. The United States and Iran will sign the agreement in Geneva on June 19. (1/2)
Other Key Takeaways:
The exact terms of the MoU are not publicly available as of this writing, which makes it difficult to assess how Iran views the agreement in terms of achieving Iranian objectives. Iranian officials have not yet commented on whether Iran would re-open the strait without tolls. It is not clear if a “toll-free” and “open” strait means that Iran retains any of its management functions over the strait. Iran has repeatedly emphasized that the strait is under Iranian control and that the strait is part of Iran’s broader deterrence strategy.
An Israeli attack in southern Beirut prompted a flurry of diplomatic efforts to reach an agreement amid Iranian threats that it would respond by attacking Israel. Several Iranian military and security officials warned on June 14 that Iran would respond to the Israeli attack. Three Iranian officials said that Iran called off a planned attack on Israel after Trump urged restraint.
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