Good article $RIG $NE $SDRL $VAL $ODL.OL Enjoyed seeing my post there. HHI isn't a topic that does numbers but in honor of this shout out here's another 6 like HHI banger. Herfindahl-Hirschman Index is a measure of market concentration used to determine market competitiveness 1/4

$TDW results reflect the general slow spot in the offshore cycle with weaker rates and "cooling" cash flow. $RIG $NE $VAL saw similar unspectacular reporting. 2027 should be better but this is not a supercycle yet. Harvey Gulf next target for Mr Kneen? bit.ly/4u2HNUa

😂 ya don't say. shocking.

We are so back @MugsLuck Dolphin Drilling AS (Dolphin Drilling, OSE: DDRIL) signs Letter of Intent (LOI) in connection with a potential new contract for the PAUL B. LOYD JR through 2030

$DVD.OL Eldorado to acquire 7G drillship Deep Value Driller for $300mm via an eleventh-hour, unsolicited offer 👀 Saipem and DVD agreed on a $272.5mm purchase price on Feb 17 — below Saipem's $300mm option, and in my view, a missed opportunity Saipem's loss is Eldorado's gain

$RIG $VAL $NE $BORR $TDW My podcast with @TommyDeepwater is up this morning. We talked about Transocean's acquisition of Valaris, how it deleverages the balance sheet, and the future for deepwater and other offshore oil services sector. Link 👇

$OIH $RIG $VAL $NE $SDRL Further thoughts / clarification on offshore drillers. I've been on hols & only just listened to the $NE call. The rather more cautious / conservative tone was quite striking - listening to it straight after today's $RIG call, as I did. But as @freakmaster222 pointed out in reply to my quoted post (linked again below) - even since $NE call last week new multi year unexpected tender/s have been announced. One does have to be careful about incentives of management to be overly positive - esp immediately after engaging in major corporate activity (i.e. $RIG). But the other key factor - which $NE's CEO Robert Eifler pointed out - is that one needs a constructive view of future oil price in order to believe a strong & durable inflection in day rates is coming. There has been a lot of back and forth on here about oil price vs. other commods - and especially gold / silver. Do the historical ratios hold - or is it different this time and oil will remain permanently cheap (strongest proponent Doomberg)? Even those who think gold will move strongly higher and oil will catch up - often say 'eventually' (e.g. @LukeGromen). My view is the long term historical ratios will hold because everything real is linked / eventually subject to the laws of arbitrage. (I think) this is also basically Gromen's position - but I disagree with him strongly that one can have any confidence about when that mean reversion might happen. I have noticed a repeated pattern in the markets (and life more generally): the big changes happen in a highly non-linear fashion - and usually in a way that is counter-consensus. So, I am very constructive on future oil price and think the old ratios will hold - which probably means most people will end up profoundly shocked where the oil price ends up. Just like happened to gold / silver after many years of contemptuous 'gold / silver bugs at it again' commentary: the naysayers were right until they were suddenly very wrong. So, this is a key part of my belief in the offshore thesis (that I've held since first invested in 2021). We've had the scrapping, consolidation (the least expected and most bullish version: $RIG taking over $VAL), effective death of energy transition & beginnings of real concern about reserve replacement. But I think we're still missing what will really turbocharge the stocks: a big upward move in oil price and total shift from consensus of oversupply to scarcity. This is why I suspect $NE's management is prob too conservative (for understandable reasons) on day rate progression: I think when it comes it will come fast & hard and surprise all the analysts. Just like it did in the post covid 2-2.5x in day rates in 3 years. But I have no idea when - just that however it happens it will very likely be counter-consensus. Final clarification: whilst I am very bullish medium term for the offshore driller stocks, they have had a terrific run since April 2025 Trump Dump - and esp year to date and since announcement of $RIG / $VAL takeover. I have held very large (for me) positions all the way through the brutal recent cycle lull trough (so I'm not that smart!!) - and added / rotated back into them from my PM exposure last year. But I am not a buyer at these levels - except possibly for $SDRL - which has lagged sector significantly over 1 month, YTD, 6 months and 1 year. The offshore drillers are one of most visible and fungible industries (one of reasons I invested) - and I have noted a repeated pattern of them going into and out of favour because 'narrative of day' - that regularly rotates / changes. $VAL was the laggard in December 2024, $RIG dumped on fears it would buy $SDRL for stock when its stock was weak, $SDRL was strongest on takeover rumours at same time. $NE was in favour around / after Trump Dump, then it lagged most - and now $RIG / $VAL are the darlings and $SDRL is written off as left on shelf. I have rotated some of my $VAL profits into $SDRL as the $RIG / $VAL takeover is extremely positive for the whole industry. And in fact you could argue most positive for the weakest of remaining players - as they will benefit most from overall improved price / contracting discipline. I have often read you should examine each stock in your portfolio with fresh eyes every day and if you would not buy it at current price - it is therefore a sell. It is my very strong view this is total garbage promoted by armchair investors / commentators: there should be a very wide area between the definite buy and definite sell prices - because real life is messy and very uncertain. How else could you possibly buy & hold a big long term winner? Which in my view should be the primary goal of every investor. So, I'm not a buyer of sector - but I am a firm holder.

Only one story in town in offshore this week: the all stock takeover of $VAL by $RIG. Forget the cost savings, this is about deepwater rate increases as a fleet of 40 floaters is created plus 33 jackups. But where does it leave $NE and $SDRL? bit.ly/4tFg2Bg

The year is 2031, TransValBorrOceanDrill is the sole offshore driller. $RIG $VAL Dayrates are still under 350k.

$RIG to acquire $VAL in all-stock transaction. Wow. I believe RIG is the most price-disciplined offshore driller; acquiring a less disciplined contract driller is positive for dayrates. VAL's 7G's a good fit for RIG. Question will be what RIG wants to do w/ the jackup rigs?

wasnt expecting this one $RIG $VAL $NE @TommyDeepwater @MugsLuck

Transocean to buy Valaris $RIG $VAL

For all my offshore homies $RIG $VAL $SDRL @TommyDeepwater

Phase 1 complete ...on to the next one

How I feel shorting AECO every time it goes above $3.00/MMBtu

Shit, now I only got 3 years left. Drillship still needs some upgrades but funds are a bit lower than anticipated🤷‍♂️

The Jones Act bans foreign vessels from working the US domestic trade. Is now the time for Europe to reciprocate with bans on American vessels working in the North Sea and the European oilfield? Would have a big hit on $TDW but would match America First. bit.ly/4bC4SqL

April 4th, what a day to ̶d̶i̶e̶-̶ buy

Me after seeing $VAL locking up a floater for up to 3 years starting 2027 @ $375k