Pleased to see my article on #Russian and #Chinese discourses on #UN #peacekeeping out in ‘Asian Perspective’ in good company w/ @M_Kaczmarski &others. Thx to @DrRadchenko for organising the special issue on #Russia #China and to @hofunghung for editing muse.jhu.edu/article/905232

I’m so pleased to see this BISA working group which I confounded around 16 years ago, going from strength to strength with 11 panels at this year’s Brighton conference 😊

.@warstudies

My nerdy calculations now in the Financial Times!

Bowen: Strait of Hormuz standoff raises risk of sliding back into all-out war bbc.in/4n7fYYe

What's happening in the Strait of Hormuz this week is very significant. Iran is blockaded, while at the same time the US is trying to open up the Strait to Western ships. All this is an existential threat to Iran and explains why it's getting more erratic. robinjbrooks.substack.com/p/…

Perhaps it’s a blessing given recent shenanigans there (pretty rude though and won’t help it’s already tarnished image)

China hardly needs a 2 2 dialogue format for Central Asia - its channels across the region are extensive and have pretty deep roots. Incidentally, the trend line is not toward 2 2 but toward 3 3 with internal security, policing, and surveillance as a big part of the Chinese package. See China-Vietnam as case #1 and a model.

Yes. We need more books to make this crucial point-- the West's fundamental mistake of the 1990s-2000s-2010s was coddling Russia rather than alienating, let alone threatening it. Some still want to return to coddling it asap.

We might be happier but I very much doubt Russia would be

In some Western defense circles, there is still a dismissive view of the threat that FPVs and other cheap UAS pose to NATO militaries. Russian and Ukrainian UAS crews are far more experienced and capable than Hezbollah's, who seem to be posing a serious challenge for the IDF.

I’m excited to share the news about our new initiative at Carnegie, The Future of Russian Power. Join us online for our inaugural event this Wednesday, 15 April with @amenka @KofmanMichael @eugene_rumer as we discuss upcoming economic, military, and foreign policy developments.

The Middle East war just dropped an unexpected financial gift on Moscow — but the real drama is unfolding inside Russia. R.Politik Bulletin No. 6 (180) is out. IN FOCUS A major oil supply shock from the Iran conflict has narrowed Urals discounts and given the Kremlin short-term breathing room, helped by the temporary US waiver. Putin is treating it as temporary. The budget crisis isn’t. Yet the domestic stories are even more striking: • Moscow hit by sudden selective mobile blackouts where even the official whitelists failed to work, paralysing businesses, officials and daily life while testing new digital control tools. • A prominent investor suddenly faces extremism charges and asset seizure after a bitter family dispute — a case with surprising reach into the highest levels of the hierarchy. • The Defence Ministry is quietly recruiting university students into specialised units, creating growing tensions across the education system. • Siberian farmers — traditionally a loyal base — are protesting serious administrative failures in veterinary services against the backdrop of sanctions, raising uncomfortable questions about political responsibility that could backfire later. • And the most intriguing of all: well-known state propagandist Ilya Remeslo publicly turns against Putin, sparking feverish speculation about an elite split and powerful figures behind him… before quickly ending up in a psychiatric clinic. These reports reveal the internal tensions, quiet experiments and elite dynamics you won’t see anywhere else. The full bulletin is essential reading. rpolitik.com/bulletin/6-2026…

This is an amazing resource that will help you understand Russia's genocide against Ukrainians.

It appears that the U.S. is responding quickly, perhaps even preemptively, to Iranian mining attempts by striking high-speed boats and other vessels that can carry naval mines and block the Strait of Hormuz. This will likely be the focus of many air strikes for days.

Russian President Vladimir Putin has signed a decree that indefinitely extends the ease of obtaining Russian citizenship in the occupied territories, a move that experts say is a sign that Russia is consolidating its occupation by pursuing mass passportization. kyivindependent.com/russia-m…

Interesting report from CSIS on the expansion of Russia’s UAV factory that manufactures Geran drones (Shahed) over time. Noting some of the site protection mechanisms as well.

Thoroughly researched @RiddleRussia piece Russia's National Guard - Rosgvardiya evolving into an infantry-heavy light paramilitary force tasked with keeping domestic security firmly under Vladimir Putin’s control. ridl.io/the-evolution-of-the…

It is deeply alarming, though not entirely surprising, that @DavidLammy on @BBCRadio4 #r4today repeatedly refused to make clear that the British government categorically opposes the idea that Donald Trump should be "involved" Venezuela style in the choice of the next Iranian leader. Asked again and again, he reeled off the PR lines to the effect that the British government's position is that this for the Iranian people to decide, but when asked whether that means Trump should not have a role in this, he would not clarify that this should have nothing to do with Trump. While reinforcing the important of the US-UK special relationship, his stance was clear: he was unable to offer any meaningful criticism of the Trump-Netanyahu war escalation leaving the impression that Britain would ultimately capitulate to whatever the US and Israel decide they want to do. Military and strategic analysts on both sides of the Atlantic are fully aware that the current escalation will not result in a 'victory', but in prolonged regional destabilisation that drives protracted civil war, increases the risks of nuclear proliferation, hikes up Islamist militancy and cements global oil and gas shortages which could trigger a global financial crisis. Any government that cares about the national interests of its people should work toward raising awareness of these catastrophic risks and build a coalition that aims to restore sanity. Yet capitulation in the name of a "national security" alliance that is actually about to fatally degrade British national interests and security is the option dominating the current policy and media discourse.

Gulf states had been using expensive Patriot missiles to defend themselves from Iranian Shahed drones. But their stocks are declining, and they are looking to Kyiv’s experience for cheaper defence. ft.trib.al/JlIcROm

Azerbaijani troops have reportedly been put on combat alert and deployed to the border with Iran, the independent media outlet Qazetchi has reported, citing sources. 🔗 Read more: oc-media.org/azerbaijani-tro…