We just published the Prediction Index Annual Report 2025–2026. 👉predictionindex.xyz/annual-r… Over the past year we tracked 268 projects, $120B in cumulative volume, and 115k live markets across the prediction market ecosystem. The report is a collection of essays from builders in the trench, researchers, traders - those who dive into market structure, research process, trading execution and see how programmable probability is reshaping our politics, culture, and trading in real-time. We cover topics like competitive market design and infra, monetization innovation, proxy hedging, oracle, liquidity and more. Read the full report here: predictionindex.xyz/annual-r… Huge thanks to the main contributors who made this possible: @lililashka @MartonBorsos @ericsports from @predictionindex @probabilitygod @Inframarkets @MarcinRedStone from @redstone_defi @justigor from @functionspaceHQ @AliHabbabeh from @xomarket @JustinHerzig from @EstablishtheRun @gianlucapanz from @predikapp @drealblaise @hanami_foresee And appreciation to frens who supported the thinking, reviewed drafts, and shared ideas along the way: @NathanWorsley_ from @Euphoria_fi @dimahorshkov from @trylimitless @thib0ault from @Polymarket @meleemarkets

Pretty cool FIFA ui from @Polymarket 👀👀👀

new listings coming soon. not even fifa can slow down prediction markets.

Bonus 2: @Agg_Market launches Extra Time, a loyalty campaign, built around the World Cup. Earn 2x XP on every contribution with a permanent 50% fee discount on fees for holders. check worldcup.agg.market/extratim…

Bonus: check out WeLikeSports' world cup bracket daily pick’em contest with up to $5K. free to enter welikesports.com x.com/playwls/status/2064769…

Introducing DG3 - the advanced trading terminal built for sports prediction markets ⚽️ Access real-time EV detection and sub-100ms execution across markets. Monitor whale flow, sharp money, live signals in one pane. Configure risk guardrails and trade in 1-click. Alpha is now LIVE on @polymarket

THE SHOT EP8: live startup fundraising: prediction market special @predikt_gg takes the shot – a live interview, pitch to a panel of PM investors and experts, and an audience that gets to fire questions and invest in real time. june 16th. live on star and X. RSVP below.

PREDIKT turns prediction market positions into usable collateral. instead of sitting idle until resolution, you can borrow against your position, earn yield or add leverage to double down. now open for pre-commits (10% allocation boost). official raise opens 16.6 on the shot.

🏀 Set your own line. Get real crowd odds. Beat the field. PROPSPACE is going live for the NBA Finals - a free prediction-market game with up to $2k in USDC prizes. Invite-only, limited spots so apply now! Only possible with functionSPACE. propspace.fun

Introducing: Prediction Market Atlas What most people see in prediction markets is only the surface. The categories now shipping include futarchy, distribution markets, multiverse markets, opinion markets, attention markets, decision markets, and info-finance. Each has its own pricing logic, regulatory lane, and audience. PM Atlas maps that landscape across 108 platforms, 12 mechanisms, and 90 concepts, from industry structure down to the actual products being built. A way to track who is building what, how these markets differ, and where the next primitives are emerging. pmatlas.xyz

top 1% of prediction market ideas i've come across of which some are live, some are being built, some are still concepts: > impact markets: trade the consequence of events on real assets, not the probability > conditional/sequential markets: markets that unlock based on prior outcomes. cascading probability trees where one resolution opens the next tradeable question (came up in a conversation) > PM-powered risk engine for DeFi: exploit probability and depeg signals feeding into lending protocols in real time. (insider information becomes a feature not a bug) > accuracy-based undercollateralized lending: your prediction track record becomes your onchain credit score. (skill reduces collateral requirements) > event-hedged stablecoins: stablecoin running PM positions underneath to hedge purchasing power against macro events the user never sees > probability API for AI agents: PM infrastructure consumed by billions of autonomous systems, not human traders. the TAM shift from millions to everything > continuous probability surfaces: full distributions instead of binary yes/no. one pool, entire outcome range tradeable > self-funding prediction markets: losing capital finances the outcome being predicted. the bet funds its own resolution > pre-IPO event contracts: retail exposure to private company trajectories years before any S-1 > parlays with correlation pricing: stacked predictions with proper correlation models (solves the bounded payout problem while generating the most valuable correlation dataset in finance) > prediction markets as recommendation engine: personalized market discovery based on your accuracy profile, trading history, and domain strengths (the tiktok algorithm for predictions) > institutional execution infrastructure: cross-venue routing, unified APIs, and abstraction layer as PM fragmentation accelerates > 0DTE-style micro markets: ultra short duration, high-gamma-equivalent payouts, same day resolution > prediction market data as an intelligence product: packaging cross-venue flow, whale positioning, and probability shifts into a subscription feed for funds and news desks this is not exhaustive if you're building something that doesn't fit any of these categories that's probably a good sign, feel free to comment below

Remember when we dropped the full Polymarket order book archive? 30M rows per hourly dump, raw parquet files, everyone loved it The problem: you had to download 500MB-1GB parquet files, write your own parser, reconstruct the book yourself from tick deltas That's over. You can now query historical order books directly from the API. 4 lines of Python. 🧵