John Guardiano: writer, analyst, investor, observer—the antithesis of an influencer. Retweets=1 of 4 things: news, interest, agreement, or disagreement.
Joined December 2009
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Jun 12
Prediction: just as Chump’s negotiation with the Taliban paved the way for Biden’s surrender of Afghanistan; so, too, has Chump’s negotiation with the IRGC paved the way for a future president’s accession to Iranian nukes.
Chump’s apologists will vehemently deny it, just as they vehemently deny that his deal with the Taliban presaged Biden’s surrender of Afghanistan.
But all honest and objective observers will know that the truth is very different, then and now.
What might change this dangerous path Chump, Obama, and Biden (birds of a feather) have laid out for Iranian nukes? Only two possibilities:
1. Israel summons the courage and the will to defy the United States and to do what it must to stop this otherwise all but inevitable outcome.
2. The regime collapses from internal and external pressure that it can no longer withstand. This is an under-appreciated possibility.
Note: options 1 and 2 are not mutually exclusive. In fact, these options are complementary.
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John Guardiano retweeted
It looks as if the White House will play the Iran deal as "no cash" and ending the nuclear program. That's misleading because it apparently unfreezes assets and money is fungible, and because there is apparently no nuclear deal. Basically, it seems that Iran gets rewards for reopening the Strait, and then we'll try to figure things out. It's all very well to say that after 60 days we can resume sanctions; then Iran can resume its closure of the Strait. My fear is that Trump in 60 days will be ready to move on and will reach a bad nuclear deal without adequate inspections or prompt dilution of HEU, and that Iran will then be in a position to take the North Korean path of acquiring not just threshold status but actual nuclear weapons. Bottom line is instead of regime change, Trump and Netanyahu have strengthened the Iran regime and put the IRGC in charge.
Jun 12
🚨 I just spoke with a senior White House official (whom I trust 100%):
He laughed at how everyone who correctly points out that the Iranian regime lies about everything is suddenly believing what it publishes about the MOU, and losing their minds over it.
He shared the actual details of the deal with me, which are VERY DIFFERENT from what the regime is claiming:
🔸 ZERO CASH released to the regime. Some of the frozen funds will be unfrozen for humanitarian purchases only, and every single purchase must be approved by the US. He emphasized that all the money in the MOU is tied to Iran's actual nuclear concessions, not just for talking ("pay for performance," not "pay to play").
🔸 ZERO ENRICHED MATERIAL: Unlike what is being claimed, the US stance is that ALL enriched uranium (including all 60%, 20%, and 3.67% enriched material) will be taken out of Iran or diluted to make it unusable.
🔸 The only sanctions relief is a temporary 60-day window on oil sales, which will snap back into place at the end of the 60 days if no deal is reached.
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So, this is the Israeli political opposition’s take. These may be fair criticisms, but from an American and non-Jew’s perspective, the Israelis are being unduly harsh toward each other.
The real problem is Chump—and the fact that Bibi foolishly placed his trust and confidence in Chump. But really, would any other Israeli leader have done differently?
I rather doubt it. Israel has always been exceedingly deferential to the United States. And this was doubly so during the Iran war, when American military personnel were active in combat with Israeli military personnel.
With American military personnel in combat on Israel’s behalf, the allure of simply following America was irresistible. And it would have been irresistible, it seems to me, for any Israeli prime minister.
No, Bibi isn’t the problem. The problem is Chump.
Chump is a loser and a moron. He lacks a moral and strategic compass, and that is why we are back at the JCPOA, version 2, Obama redux.
צריך עדיין לקוות שהפרסומים לגבי ההסכם עם איראן אינם נכונים, אבל אם כן, מדובר באחד הכשלונות המזעזעים ביותר של מדיניות החוץ והבטחון של ישראל, והוא כולו רשום על שמו של נתניהו.
1. הוא מכר לאמריקאים תסריט אופטימי מדי, בלי לפרט בפניהם את מפת הסיכונים, ואיבד את אמונם באמצע המלחמה.
2. הוא לא הקים צוות מקצועי שיעבוד מול הגורמים הבדלניים במשטר האמריקאי.
3. הוא לא הצליח לשכנע את האמריקאים להפציץ את מתקני הנפט והאנרגיה האיראנים ולא סגר את העניין מראש.
4. הוא לא הצליח לשכנע את האמריקאים להכניס את נושא הטילים הבליסטיים להסכם, או אפילו למשא-ומתן.
5. הוא המעיט בחשיבות המעבר החופשי בהורמוז - האפשרות שהמיצרים ייסגרו הועלתה לפני המלחמה, אבל לא התקיים לגביה שום דיון רציני.
6. הוא דחף את התוכנית הכורדית מבלי להביא בחשבון את התגובה התורכית הצפויה ואת השפעתו של ארדואן בוושינגטון.
7. הוא לא לקח בחשבון את משמעות עליית מחירי הנפט בארה"ב חודשים ספורים לפני הבחירות לקונגרס.
8. הוא לא לקח בחשבון את משמעות הסרת הסנקציות והזרמת עשרות מיליארדי דולרים לכלכלה האיראנית בפיקוח משמרות המהפיכה.
9. הוא לא לקח בחשבון את האפשרות של הפצצת מתקני האנרגיה של מדינות המפרץ ולא הצליח למנף את הקשר עם המפרציות כדי להביא אותם ללחימה משותפת.
10.הוא נכשל בלגייס את דעת הקהל העולמית למלחמה מחודשת בין דמוקרטיות לדיקטטורה פונדמנטליסטית.
11. הוא מינה צוות בדרג נמוך מדי למו"מ עם ממשלת לבנון וגרם לכך שהממשל החליט להוציא מידיו גם את העניין הלבנוני.
12. הוא החליף תוך כדי המלחמה - ר׳ מל״ל, ר׳ מוסד - איש לא החליף את דרמר כיועץ. אין לו צוות מקצועי לנהל בצורה מקצועית את המצב.
13. הוא ממשיך לומר לכולם: "שינינו את המזרח התיכון." הבעיה היא שבגלל רשלנות, יוהרה, היעדרו של צוות מקצועי מתאים ושיקול דעת המושפע מדברים אחרים – הוא שינה אותו לרעה.
אפשר לתקן, צריך לתקן, נתניהו כבר לא יכול לתקן, אנחנו נעשה את זה.
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This is key. Chump’s popularity was plummeting well before the Iran War. Yet when the GOP gets creamed in November, MAGA influencers will blame the war.
They are wrong, demonstrably wrong.
It was and is Chump’s trade wars, inflation, affordability, and subpar economic growth, not the war, that are the real source of his political problems.
IOW: it’s the economy, stupid.
NEW: In 2018, white working-class voters approved of Trump on the economy by 30 points.
Now they disapprove by as much as that margin in some polls.
My piece on how Trump’s big blue-collar white vulnerability is reshaping the 2026 landscape
nytimes.com/2026/06/13/us/po…
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This is a superb piece. I agree with its primary point: Chump’s disgraceful deal with Iran echoes Obama’s disgraceful deal with Iran.
But @LeeSmithDC makes a bad and inapt historical analogy when he says, falsely, Bush lost the Iraq War; and that that is the last time America lost a war.
No, sir, when Bush was on the verge of losing the Iraq War, he changed his war fighting strategy and pulled victory from the jaws of defeat.
In truth, the last time America lost a war was when Joe Biden stupidly and willingly pulled out of Afghanistan and surrendered the country to the Taliban.
Smith is right, though about this: “There are serious consequences to losing wars.” Biden’s surrender of Afghanistan to the Taliban helped effect the Russian invasion of Ukraine.
Any concern Russian dictator Vladimir Putin might have had that his attempt to swallow Ukraine would be met by U.S. military force quickly evaporated when Putin saw Biden running for the exits in Afghanistan.
Smith writes:
There are serious consequences to losing wars. The last time an American president lost a war, Obama was sent to the White House and struck a deal with a terror state guaranteeing that they’d have a nuclear weapons program roughly a decade after he left office.
"What Trump has frequently called the worst deal ever negotiated, and has identified for more than a decade as Exhibit A in the case against American loserdom, has now become the pattern of his own Iran policy."
@LeeSmithDC writes the clearest and most devastating articulation I've seen of the case that Trump is turning a military victory into a diplomatic defeat that will haunt America for generations.
Lee still gives Trump his due for what he accomplished until the April ceasefire but there's no way around the fact that, as he writes, "There are serious consequences to losing wars." And this was a loss Trump chose.
Make no mistake, while JD Vance led the negotiations and this is his deal, Trump is endorsing it. I give Trump no quarter for getting kneecapped by those he appointed.
tabletmag.com/sections/news/…
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John Guardiano retweeted
Netanyahu has decided to accept the Iranian deal. Security officials are despondent and see it as a disaster. Ynet brings some high level quotes from them:
1) A senior Israeli official said "Nobody is happy with this. We understand it is not good for us, and that it harms Israeli interests. What is troubling is that Israel cannot influence it. Its voice is not being heard."
2) The anger at Trump is palpable.: "Trump screwed us, we took the hit. We're no longer in the loop and can't really influence anything."
3) Israelis fear Iran will be economically revived: "They've blown money on the Iranians, who are getting everything they want. They'll build a missile corps, and we'll have to pour money into interceptors." Israel sees oil revenue flowing back into the exact capabilities the war was meant to degrade.
4) They don't believe a deal will adequately deal with the nuclear issue: "The real test of the deal is removing the uranium and destroying it. If that doesn't happen, the sense of a bad deal will turn into something more concrete."
5) They fear this will embolden Iran: "Iran has smelled that it can achieve things by force, and it will use that against its neighbors and against us."
6) The deepest worry is not military. It is perception. After months of direct fire, Iran is seen across the region as the side that took the pressure and did not fold: "the regional working assumption will be that it was signed under Iranian pressure and American capitulation, rather than the reverse."
Israel is concerned that Iran will be stronger, the US will be weaker and that the future for it will be bleak in the region. This war has been a disaster for Israel.
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Oh, come on! lol I stand second to no one in my contempt for Chump, but the guy was legitimately elected. And while he deserves our scorn and contempt, he isn’t going anywhere.
He isn’t about to be convicted of impeachment, let alone jailed.
Nonetheless, for the hardcore never Trumpers like Conway “the work goes on, the cause endures, the hope still lives, and the dream shall never die."
Jun 13
Hey, @realDonaldTrump—wake up, pay attention—that's not an IQ test they keep making you take. Dude, try to stay awake!
It's a test for dementia! You still there??
Our latest ad 👉
georgeconwayforcongress.com
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John Guardiano retweeted
21h
What Trump calls the worst deal ever negotiated, and has identified for more than a decade as Exhibit A in the case against American loserdom, has now become the pattern of his own Iran policy — Obama's policy. I explain today in @tabletmag
tabletmag.com/sections/news/…
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John Guardiano retweeted
Jun 12
Any version of this deal with Iran means the leverage is out the window.
And there's another underappreciated enforcement cost: even temporary sanctions relief — whether waivers, authorizations, or licenses — while will fail to attract new oil buyers wary of residual risk, will actively degrades @USTreasury's ability to enforce violations that occur during the relief window and after their expiration for a significant period after it expires.
If a 60-day authorization lapses without a deal, Treasury can't simply flip the switch back on enforcement, investigators must work through transactions that were arguably authorized or occurred in a gray period.
So the leverage calculus is worse than it looks: Tehran gets the relief upfront, the Strait remains contested and risky for shippers anyway, and the U.S. walks away from a failed 60-day window with both less diplomatic leverage and a temporarily blunted enforcement posture.
Jun 12
If it's true that #Iran's regime is being offered temporary sanctions waivers for reopening the Strait of Hormuz--which will still be contested and companies may view it as still too risky to cross--that will provide less incentive for Tehran to agree to the nuclear concessions President Trump seeks later on.
It's been like a root canal to negotiate an MOU. Imagine the difficulty of getting to a final deal especially with a regime flush with new resources.
axios.com/2026/06/12/iran-de…
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John Guardiano retweeted
John Bolton famously clashed with Trump over the idea of hosting the Taliban at Camp David around 9/11. Bolton understood that some optics are so terrible they overwhelm whatever message you're trying to send.
Which brings us to the reported idea of a signing ceremony with the Iranian regime.
Trump has a habit of becoming so enamored with announcing a deal that he stops asking how it will look to the public.
Even if you support the agreement, why on earth would you want images of American officials celebrating and shaking hands with a regime that has spent decades funding terrorism, killing Americans, and chanting "Death to America"?
Jun 13
Pakistani officials saying that the Iran-US agreement MOU will be signed electrically tomorrow. Araghchi implied this was the case in a lengthy interview for Iran state TV yesterday.
This suggests that there will be no in-person component (though it's possible something comes after the signing).
Technical discussions will commence shortly thereafter.
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Wow. Just wow. What an historical ignoramus. Definitely an affirmative action admit to Yale Law School.
The Vice President of the United States thinks WWII ended through a negotiation
😳
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John Guardiano retweeted
Jun 13
Berkeley math professor:
“Today, the more successful a public high school is at preparing its students, the lower its graduates' chances of getting into top UC campuses like Berkeley and San Diego.”
Berkeley admitted 45% of applicants from a high school where nearly 94% of “students failed to meet the state standards in mathematics.”
It admitted less than 14% of applicants from a school where “nearly 100 percent of its students in AP Calculus BC pass the national exam with a perfect score of 5.”
Jun 12
California universities dropped the SAT to help low-income and minority students. The policy is doing the opposite, writes Svetlana Jitomirskaya, a professor of mathematics at UC Berkeley. thefp.com/p/bring-back-the-s…
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John Guardiano retweeted
13 Mar 2022
Tulsi Gabbard is parroting false Russian propaganda. Her treasonous lies may well cost lives.
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John Guardiano retweeted
Jun 13
Trump is bad at reaching meaningful agreements with autocrats.
He failed in his first term with Kim Jong Un.
He played a game of chicken with Xi Jinping last year, and then backed down.
He has accomplished nothing with Putin regarding the end of the war in Ukraine.
Negotiations with autocrats in Iran are not going well either.
He's better at coercing democratic allies.
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John Guardiano retweeted
Jun 12
39 years ago today, President Ronald Reagan stood before the Berlin Wall and addressed a challenge to the general secretary of the Soviet Union in a speech crafted by Hoover fellow @P_M_Robinson:
"Mr. Gorbachev, tear down this wall!"
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Jun 12
There is a word for this. It’s called appeasement, made possible by Donald J. Chump.
Jun 12
The UAE is releasing billions of dollars to Iran as part of a deal to reduce bilateral tensions and assist with reopening the strait.
It could be as much as $20 billion. $3 billion has already been delivered, confirming rumors from earlier this week.
The move comes after the emirates emerged as the single largest target for Iranian missiles and drones during the war.
From confrontation to accommodation. reuters.com/world/middle-eas…
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John Guardiano retweeted
Jun 12
Interesting. Even the regime telling people to shut up until the deal is done. Only deal should be no nuclear program, no long range ballistic missile program, give up nuclear enriched material, complete freedom of navigation in the strait of hormuz, give up robust proxy program. IMO.
The Islamabad Memorandum of Understanding has never been closer. Pending its finalization, the media should refrain from entering speculation about its content.
In line with our responsible and transparent approach, all details will be shared with the public in due course.
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John Guardiano retweeted
Jun 12
Withdraw all forces from Persian gulf, lift all sanctions on Iran, give Iran $12B immediately and $12B more in 60 days, give Iran $300B in construction, let Iran control/toll Strait of Hormuz. US gets promise to discuss Iran nukes. This is not a deal. It is a US surrender.
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Jun 12
Wow. If even 10% of this is true, it is a defacto American surrender to the IRGC.
Jun 12
Iran’s Mehr news agency publishes the purported text of the draft agreement with Trump. It will keep the Strait of Hormuz under Iranian control, will promise Iran $300 billion in reconstruction money in addition to an immediate cash transfer of $24 billion, a suspension of sanctions and the withdrawal of U.S. forces from the Middle East. Also, a commitment not to bother Iran again about its missiles and proxies, and restraining Israel in Lebanon.
The U.S. gets in exchange a pinky promise to respect the NPT.
Let’s see what happens in coming days.
Link: mehrnews.com/news/6857718
Full text:
A permanent and immediate cessation of war on all fronts, including Lebanon.
A U.S. commitment not to interfere in Iran’s internal affairs and to respect the sovereignty of the Islamic Republic of Iran.
Full lifting of the naval blockade within 30 days.
A U.S. commitment to withdraw its forces from areas surrounding Iran.
Reopening of the Strait of Hormuz within 30 days under arrangements determined by Iran.
Suspension of sanctions on the sale of oil, petrochemical products, and related derivatives, along with full Iranian access to the resulting financial revenues.
The United States and its allies would be required to present reconstruction plans for Iran worth at least $300 billion.
A 60-day negotiation period aimed at reaching a final agreement covering nuclear issues and the complete removal of U.S. primary and secondary sanctions, as well as the repeal of relevant resolutions of the UN Security Council and the IAEA Board of Governors.
Reaffirmation by Iran of its commitment under the Nuclear Non-Proliferation Treaty (NPT) not to produce nuclear weapons.
During the negotiation period, the United States would commit not to deploy additional forces to the region and not to impose any new sanctions.
The release of $24 billion in frozen Iranian assets during the 60-day final negotiation period. Half of this amount must be made available to Iran before negotiations begin.
Establishment of a monitoring mechanism to oversee implementation of the agreement.
The final agreement would be approved through a UN Security Council resolution.
Final negotiations would not begin before the release of half of Iran’s frozen assets, the suspension of oil sanctions, and the lifting of the naval blockade. The final agreement would focus exclusively on the future of enriched nuclear material and uranium enrichment, sanctions relief, and a program for rebuilding Iran’s economy. Discussion of Iran’s missile program and its support for resistance groups would be definitively excluded from the agenda.
As stated by the Foreign Ministry spokesperson, this text still requires review and final approval by the relevant authorities in Iran.
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