The post-Keynesian growth cycle doesn't begin with central banks distorting a mythical natural interest rate. It begins with the normal functioning of capitalism itself.
Businesses invest because they expect profits. Investment creates income, income creates demand, and demand encourages further investment. Growth feeds on itself.
As the expansion continues, unemployment falls and labor markets tighten. Workers gain bargaining power. Wages begin rising faster as firms compete for scarce labor.
Higher wages are not a distortion. They are a predictable consequence of successful growth. But rising wages can compress profit margins. As profits come under pressure, firms become more cautious. Investment slows.
At the same time, businesses and households often turn to debt to maintain growth. Banks are eager to lend because recent success makes risk appear low. Credit expands, asset prices rise, and optimism becomes self-reinforcing.
The longer stability persists, the more fragile the system becomes.
What began as productive investment gradually shifts toward speculation. Rising debt commitments require continued growth to remain sustainable. The economy becomes increasingly dependent on expectations that cannot all be fulfilled.
Then reality intervenes. A slowdown in profits, rising debt burdens, falling asset prices, or declining investment can trigger a wave of deleveraging. Spending falls. Layoffs begin. Income declines. The boom turns into a bust.
The crisis was not caused by an external distortion imposed on an otherwise stable system.
The boom itself created the conditions for the bust.
This was the insight of Richard Goodwin. It was the insight of Hyman Minsky and formalized by
@ProfSteveKeen Cycles emerge from the interaction of wages, profits, investment, employment, and debt.
Capitalism does not require policy mistakes to become unstable.
Its internal dynamics are often enough.