Syria, Middle East politics, and Mediterranean security at @FOIresearch. Fellow at @CenturyIntl, @SyriaStudies, and @UIsweden and occasional freelance writer.
Joined December 2011
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3,756 Photos and videos
🔥 Just out: My new @SCEEUS_UI report on Russia’s Middle East policy after the wars in Ukraine, Gaza, Lebanon, Syria, and Iran.
Russia must now make a choice: will it dig down alongside Iran or recalibrate to protect its interests?
sceeus.se/publikationer/five… @UISweden @ResearchUI
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Iran’s blockade has begun to leak and the U.S. blockade is beginning to bite, perhaps affecting Tehran’s negotiating incentives.
@jongambrell & @dgmchugh for @apnews: apnews.com/article/iran-us-w…
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A major leak of sensitive internal communications and data from the Syrian Foreign Ministry was apparently the work of an employee, rather than a hacker attack.
@EnabBaladi_Eng: english.enabbaladi.net/archi…
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🏊 Opening Ceremony of the Mediterranean Games, Latakia, Syria (1987)
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Looping video promo for sci-fi-looking Qassioun Journey development in Damascus's Umayyad Square highlights the dissonance between the Syrian government's enthusiastic promotion of deluxe real estate projects and the country's more threadbare reality:
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So what was that questioner talking about? And why were other attendees also complaining about transloading at Syria's borders?
To know more, see my report on the Syrian government's February decision and what it says about the country's new regime: tcf.org/content/report/road-…
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At last week's Syrian Private Sector Dialogue, the first audience question to panel "Charting Economic Vision, Governance, and the Roadmap to Achieve" asked how investors could feel confident when the government might arbitrarily impose things like back-to-back transloading:
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Great read by @DukhanHaian and @ArabCenterDC on eastern Syria’s mounting disenchantment with Sharaa, whose governance efforts are subverted by familiar problems: regime insularity, center-periphery tension, local fragmentation, and a lack of resources. arabcenterdc.org/resource/co…
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Jun 13
Read Sam Vigersky's great article about the Food for Peace program under the USDA, and how it is spending money to try to reacquire the expertise it lost when USAID was dismantled:
cfr.org/articles/trumps-reva…
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Jun 13
Look what I found: After USAID's Food for Peace program was moved to the USDA last year, Food for Peace seems to have stripped food aid from all Muslim-majority countries.
To this amazing chart from @CFR_org, I added a column showing the % of the population that is Muslim:
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Amazing if four months of war comes to an end with J.D. Vance getting an email "Please DocuSign these documents: IranUSA_MOU_Final_FINAL_ActuallyFinal_V43"
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Pakistani officials saying that the Iran-US agreement MOU will be signed electrically tomorrow. Araghchi implied this was the case in a lengthy interview for Iran state TV yesterday.
This suggests that there will be no in-person component (though it's possible something comes after the signing).
Technical discussions will commence shortly thereafter.
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JAS 39 Gripen nära att vinna sin första luftstridsseger mot ett slarvigt israeliskt passagerarplan.
timesofisrael.com/hungary-la…
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Trump says his Iran deal is the opposite of the JCPOA, which sounds about right.
truthsocial.com/@realDonaldT…
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Thread with a U.S. official’s comments on a deal currently on the table, awaiting Iranian approval.
Jun 13
US official, in a backgrounder, saying the Iranians are trying to do what the Trump side is clearly trying to do as well: sell the deal as a win domestically: “I think there are a few things to keep in mind here, guys. So, number one is that the Iranian hardliners, some of them want to kill the deal, but I think most of them actually want the deal, but they also want to message it to their internal audiences in a way that maximizes their upside and minimizes our upside. That's totally predictable, but just because they're sort of engaged in domestic propaganda doesn't mean that we have to follow suit.”
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Being constantly enveloped in a pungent cloud of Trump Cologne has in no way diminished Sharaa’s ability to smell trouble
Pres. Sharaa reportedly told visitors (who told @AFP) that he has no intention of sending Syrian forces into Lebanon, despite reports of U.S. pressure and troop movements close to the border. @enabbaladi: enabbaladi.net/812126/ا…
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Pres. Sharaa reportedly told visitors (who told @AFP) that he has no intention of sending Syrian forces into Lebanon, despite reports of U.S. pressure and troop movements close to the border. @enabbaladi: enabbaladi.net/812126/ا…
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To facilitate a deal, Iran will be paid off by the UAE, which may explain why it hasn’t been targeted recently. “First $3 billion tranche already sent, sources say.”
Andrew Mills, Marwa Rashad, and Ahmad Ghaddar for @Reuters: reuters.com/world/middle-eas…
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Not necessarily irreconcilable claims, though? They may have arrived at a package that includes pieces outside the main MoU, such as discreetly agreed terms for the framework and intent of future negotiations. (In addition to spin and misreadings of the other side.)
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But:
“The United States and Iran signalled on Friday that an agreement to end their war was close, with a senior U.S. administration official saying a text was in place that both sides like.”
@PHreuters, @steveholland1 & @IrishJReuters for @reuters: reuters.com/world/middle-eas…
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“The United States and Iran signalled on Friday that an agreement to end their war was close, with a senior U.S. administration official saying a text was in place that both sides like.”
@PHreuters, @steveholland1 & @IrishJReuters for @reuters: reuters.com/world/middle-eas…
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