Appreciate
@ForeignAffairs publishing my analysis Hezbollah’s Trap for Israel on Israel’s approach to Lebanon as Israeli and Lebanese teams are in DC for a 4th round of talks. The piece describes the military challenge (including the faulty logic of turning the post-Nov 2024 “luxury” cease-fire, which allowed the IDF to maintain freedom of operation and five points in Lebanon, while Hezbollah refrained from acting, into the current mess), the shortcomings of the diplomatic track, and outlines a way forward.
Israel’s idea of holding both ends of the stick isn’t likely to work. Appreciate Israeli Amb. to DC's commitment and leadership but his idea of "reaching a peace treaty as if there’s no Hezbollah and fighting Hezbollah as if there’s no peace treaty" could derail the prospect of achieving either objective.
Israel’s approach to Lebanon must be understood in the context of the post–October 7 shift in the country’s mindset, moving away from prioritizing deterrence to an always‑on security doctrine that seizes "buffer zones" in neighboring countries. Not accepting a threat building on the border is understandable but if the current escalatory dynamic continues, that will squander a rare opening for Israel and Lebanon to achieve a shared strategic objective - Hezbollah disarmed. Disarmament is not only a kinetic effort but it requires patient, sequenced statecraft, which only Lebanon can do. Israel can’t substitute firepower for legitimacy. It can, however, help shape the conditions that enable Beirut to reclaim its sovereignty.
Israel faces a stark choice. It can accept a demanding bargain: pair calibrated deterrence and temporary military measures with clear initiatives to strengthen Lebanese state capacity and delegitimize Hezbollah. Or it can keep prioritizing prevention and retribution over patient diplomacy, and pay accumulating military, economic, and diplomatic costs. In both the near and long term, however, that will only play into Hezbollah’s hand.
This week’s round of negotiations should do more than extending the crumbling cease-fire and containing the conflict to growing parts of southern Lebanon. Unless the talks enable a fundamentally different approach and produce discernible benefits for both Lebanese and Israelis, renewal of full-on war could be inevitable—and the hope of permanently weakening Hezbollah and making peace will be gone.
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