Ghostwriter of fiscal misfortunes
Joined June 2023
- Tweets 4,477
- Following 144
- Followers 108
- Likes 7,485
Photos and videos
Phantom Economics retweeted
🏗️ Erisha Smart Manufacturing Hub- RAKEZ | Ras Al Khaimah, UAE | 335 Acres | USD 10 Billion. Your Gateway to Industry 4.0.
We are now opening select partnership opportunities for technology companies seeking a strategic foothold in the UAE’s most ambitious industrial development.
Three Ways to Enter:
① Smart Industry Lease
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② Joint Venture — Co-Investment
For qualified technology partners, we offer equity co-investment structures within the Hub’s green hydrogen, aerospace, electric vehicle, and advanced manufacturing verticals. JV partners gain shared ownership, preferential land rights, and alignment with our Q4 2027 ADX/NYSE IPO trajectory.
③ Anchor Tenant Strategic Partner
Secure an anchor position within the Hub and co-brand your presence alongside a USD 10B development that has positioned India as the #1 source of greenfield project into the UAE.
Whether you are a semiconductor firm, clean energy company, aerospace supplier, or Industry 4.0 integrator — Erisha Smart Manufacturing Hub is where global technology meets industrial-scale ambition.
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Serious inquiries: info@ranagroup.ae
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Concentration risk is real. Not calling tops, just diversifying. UAE sovereign capital deploying into real assets while everyone debates the chart.
14h
🚨THIS CHART SHOULD SCARE EVERY AI BULL
Last time this ratio looked like this was the Dot-com bubble
It ended with a 75% collapse
Today we're watching the exact same AI-driven concentration push markets to another extreme
Everyone thinks this time is different
That's usually how bubbles end...
NOTIFS ON!
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$293B. Stagflation is here. Gold gets it. UAE's institutional framework held under real stress, Mubadala published AED 1.4T AUM mid-conflict.
Are we connecting the dots yet?
Month of May: Deficit Spending
2006: $42B
2016: $52B
2026: $293B
*Official US Treasury / FRED / CBO / MTS Data). US Budget Deficit.
*Gold / commodities since 2020, top right, outperformance, 2026, yet to be determined.
cc @TheStalwart
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14/16 higher highs is solid. Still like EM diversification on that tho
FIRST HALF OF JUNE NEW HIGHS TENDS TO LEAD TO HIGHER HIGHS
The S&P currently resides 2.34% from the June 2nd High.
Since 1950, I see sixteen, prior cases of new 12 Month Highs being set in the first half of June.
The performance in the remainder (Jun15-Dec31) of those 16 years was somewhat normal, 12-4 for an avg/med gain of 5.2/8.1% with three of the sixteen time frames experiencing a 10% Drawdown at some point as measured from June 15.
But you were promised Higher Highs before year end as none of those 16 years was the High set in June and,
In 14 of those 16 cases, the High for the year was set in the 4th Quarter, nine occurring in December.
A snippet of the presentation on this subject shared with Study Subscribers this week.
waynewhaley.witterlester@gmail.com for subscription inquiries.
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Retail buys the float. G42's Stargate partnership already secured OpenAI allocation at terms retail never sees. That's the real asymmetry.
The retail consensus around the upcoming wave of mega-cap AI IPOs is mathematically suicidal.
You guys genuinely believe OpenAI and SpaceX hitting the public markets will ignite a multi-year index supercycle.
In reality, these events are highly engineered exit liquidity mechanisms for early-stage venture capital.
By the time a private decacorn finally lists on the broad market, the asymmetric growth phase has been completely stripped out behind closed doors.
You are not buying the future of artificial general intelligence or multi-planetary colonization.
You are systematically buying the absolute top of a private equity distribution curve.
When these behemoths list, every single passive index fund gets mechanically forced to rebalance and absorb their multi-hundred-billion-dollar floats.
The broad market is going to become a structural dumping ground for late-stage venture bags disguised as a technological renaissance.
Insiders will quietly distribute their shares into your passive bid while the index violently bleeds out under the sheer weight of the new supply.
Stop confusing a systemic liquidity vacuum with a structural bull market. $SPY $QQQ
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Stagflation doesn't respect Fibonacci.
21h
THIS LEVEL HAS HELD THREE TIMES NOW IT'S BACK
The 0.5 Fib on S&P 500 has caught every major top without exception
2020→ pandemic top, held
2022→ rate hike cycle, held
2025→ geopolitical top, held
2026→ fourth top forming now, same level: $6,000
Three times in a row, same playbook, same bounce nothing has broken it yet
If history holds one more time, you'll want to know before it happens
Turn on notifications - I'll call it the moment it confirms
Phantom Economics retweeted
Originally developed for weather forecasting and environmental monitoring, Earth observation #data are now informing development finance at scale, such as:
• Climate resilience
• Agricultural statistics
• Energy infrastructure planning
Read more 👇 wrld.bg/1gqG50ZbbUl
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8% IFRS compliant says it all. ADGM kept issuing licences through the conflict. Institutional continuity moves capital.
Jun 12
Nigeria risks being locked out of a rapidly growing pool of global institutional capital worth more than $120 trillion unless companies accelerate compliance with emerging sustainability disclosure standards, according to a new report by advisory...
businessday.ng/news/article/…
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ADFD's water platform model already does this for South Asia. Structured capital not aid dependency
Asia faces a massive climate adaptation challenge, requiring up to $650 billion annually—over half the global total—to protect its rapidly urbanizing populations from extreme climate events.
But it also presents a massive opportunity for resilient growth, notes MGI Partner Mekala Krishnan. mck.co/4fsX3FM
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Turn notifications on lol
Jun 13
This is exactly what I told you would happen.
S&P 500 is at all-time highs, but the real macro support is still far below.
Because in years, this pattern NEVER fails.
50 out of 50 years showed the same thing:
Every pump before the previous major support retest ended the same way.
DUMP.
And right now, the S&P 500 is still trading far above the level it usually needs to retest before the real bottom forms.
This is the final squeeze before the next leg down.
I’ve studied macro for 10 years and I called almost every major market top, including the October BTC ATH.
Follow and turn notifications on.
I’ll post the warning BEFORE it hits the headlines.
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Top 3% holds 53% of wealth. That capital goes where income tax is zero. UAE is complementary exposure.
Jun 13
$1 Trillion ETFs, Wealth Inequality and the Shrinking Middle Class
"Way more money is going into passive investments at the same time far more retail traders are now speculating in the markets. There’s a narrative for everyone."
buff.ly/PhKtLuI
by @awealthofcs
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Phantom Economics retweeted
Consensus estimates continue to point to declining ROE (return on equity) for mega-cap tech. Remember, these estimates are coming from analysts who are predisposed to being bullish.
Have a lovely and relaxing weekend! 😊
Source: Goldman Sachs
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Jun 13
If confirmed, continuity not new policy. $28.2B bilateral trade, 500K Iranian nationals in Dubai. Verify first.
Jun 13
JUST IN: 🇦🇪🇮🇷 UAE agrees to unlock billions of dollars in frozen assets for Iran.
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Jun 13
98% to capex is brutal. Question is where it deploys. UAE already capturing AI compute through OpenAI-G42.
⚠️The AI spending is approaching Dot-Com Bubble levels:
Hyperscalers are on track to allocate ~98% of their entire operating cash flow to CapEx in 2026, according to Goldman Sachs.
This compares to ~95% for the broader S&P 500 TMT sector at its Dot-Com peak.
Furthermore, Big Tech CapEx is expected to reach ~$920 billion in 2027.
Goldman's upside scenario is even projecting as much as $1.4 trillion, representing growth of up to 89% from 2026 average projection levels.
Meanwhile, companies using AI tools are increasingly questioning the return on AI investment, with token pricing wars between OpenAI and Anthropic signaling that AI models may not be able to generate enough revenue to justify the scale of spending commitments.
Is the massive AI spending sustainable?
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Jun 13
20x forward getting expensive. UAE complementary exposure making sense here
The forward 12-month P/E ratio for the S&P 500 is 20.1.
This P/E ratio is above the 5-year average (19.9) and above the 10-year average (19.0). @factset
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Jun 13
Cheap is not a floor. Sovereign capital creates floors that public equities just don't have.
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Jun 13
Stagflation doing what it does. Real wages at zero, earnings will follow. Diversification case writes itself.
Jun 12
Real average hourly earnings — the eight-month leading edge of NASDAQ-100 returns — has rolled back to the zero line, and the signal it governs just armed. That threshold is a coin flip: 50% probability of negative returns eight months out, with the chart projecting the index roughly -12% by December 2026. Read it as a yellow flag, not a red one. The kill zone sits lower — past -1 (67% odds) and especially below -2, where no reading has ever failed to precede losses. R²=0.265 is loose in aggregate, but the fit tightens precisely where it bites: the downside. Why? Negative real wages erode household demand first; consumer-facing revenue fades next; forward earnings follow them down; and only then does the multiple-rich NASDAQ-100, leaning hardest on those out-year estimates, reprice. Households first, megacaps second. The clock has started; the wallet, not the tape, is keeping time. join.recessionalert.com/
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Jun 13
100% debt with no growth catalyst this time. UAE's $2.5T SWF base is different fiscal math. That's the diversification case.
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Jun 13
When 5 of 7 can't beat SPY, the EM diversification case writes itself.
Jun 11
5 out of the 7 stocks in the Magnificent Seven have actually underperformed the S&P 500 since the start of 2025, a very different picture than 2023-2024.
Only Google and Nvidia have outperformed.
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Phantom Economics retweeted
Nasdaq 100 logged its second 3% gain of 2026.
Looking back at years leading up to 2000 tech bubble, these types of outsized moves became far more frequent between 1996 and 2000.
Every generational innovation eventually turns into a bubble. But we're not there yet. $NDX $QQQ
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