General
$BTC market outlook update:
Supply distribution has started. Here's what I'm looking at and how it compares to previous cycles, and what might come next:
First off, the biggest story is obviously the ETFs.
$IBIT has been the most succesful ETF launch in history by a wide variety of metrics, and just looking at BlackRock Fidelity alone, they've bought 284k BTC since launch, greater than 1% of total
#bitcoin supply that will ever exist.
On a net basis, including
$GBTC outflows, ETFs have hoovered up ~160k BTC since launch in early January. Just massive numbers. Demand has surpassed most all initial expectations, with increasing strength into the rally ($788m of inflows from
$IBIT alone yesterday amidst a -8% close from ATHs). While the bitcoin market has boomed post ETFs, nothing exists in a vacuum.
For those that have been following since before the ETF, it was clear the ground work for this rally was laid over the past couple years of bear market purgatory.
Various on-chain HODL metrics clearly showed all time levels of supply constraint. From the most simple to understand (i.e. '% of supply last moved in N years' most all hitting all time highs) or more advanced quantifications of HODL strength using the UTXO set, despite the 100% bounce from 2022 lows, net accumulation was on-going for much of 2023.
However, as is tradition with the ever-cyclical
$BTC market, with the rise to new heights comes the distribution of coins to new entrants from the old guard.
This can clearly be seen by the change in long-term holders over the recent months. For those interested in a deeper dive on the quantification of LTHs, you can take a deeper dive here:
insights.glassnode.com/quant…
However, at this stage, I'd say its far from worrisome, nor by any means a red alert for bulls. New distribution (on a 30d change basis) began to occur at ~$1k in 2017 and ~$13k in 2020 during the run up to new highs, and started in early January this time around.
Here's a visual of the distribution that has begun to occur. Below displays the drawdown in supply held by long-term holders from its local two peak as a percent of circulating supply. Just the start, and likely to increase as new highs are set (if current rally is sustained).
A clear takeaway should be just how strong distribution can become during a raging bull market while price is still going parabolic.
As new forms of demand unlock from new classes of investors that realize bitcoin did not indeed die during the previous bear, while fundamentals such as liquidity and adoption have improved, unlocked supply can be overwhelmed by newfound demand for quite a while. A local peak is reached once an increasing overhang of supply exceeds newfound demand at exceedingly high prices, the exchange rate crashes, and we repeat the whole cycle of accumulation all over again.
In terms of catalyst on the horizon I am watching, there are a few obvious ones. First, it's still the early innings of ETF allocations. These passive flows from the world's largest financial institutions will continue, and are likely to grow given the immediate success of the products. Here are some of my thoughts from back in November on the impact of ETFs. All still hold true today, and admittedly my initial expectations have been far surpassed. Crazy bullish.
x.com/DylanLeClair_/status/1…
Portfolio managers and financial advisors have zero excuse to ignore the best performing asset in absolute and risk adjusted returns after the BlackRock stamp of approval and subsequent ETF rollout. You especially can't afford to ignore it when your direct industry competitors aren't (
$IBIT is currently 25% above its average volume weighted price ). There will be chasing.
Secondly, the FASB accounting rule change has massive implications that have not begun to be priced in or felt by the market. Post 2020, it was only
$MSTR,
$SQ,
$TSLA,
$COIN, and some miners with
$BTC exposure in public markets, which was treated as an intangible asset.
It's only a matter of time until CFOs everywhere, with improved accounting standards for
$BTC, begin to wake up. Saylor's
$MSTR raised another $700m this morning at 0.625% in the convertible debt market. This is on top of already tapping the corporate debt market with a 0% convert and a 6% junk offering previously.
You could've laughed and dismissed it all you wish during the mania of 2021. Laugh they did, yet MicroStrategy is 933% from the point they adopted a bitcoin standard, and every single debt instrument issued and equity sale facility utilized to buy
$BTC is in the money. There will be copycats.
While maybe not as ALL IN as Saylor's
$MSTR, there WILL be copycats.
Capital markets are still mispricing this transition. Corporate speculative attacks and share dilutions to acquire
$BTC will occur with increasing levels of frequency and size. This is not going away. The playbook has been vindicated. After a decade of ZIRP financed buybacks that decapitlize corporate balance sheets that created a zombified public sector, the pendalum is going to swing back.
$BTC is the new stock buyback, most companies just haven't figured it out yet.
Lastly, Russia being kicked from SWIFT sent a clear signal to any not under the umbrella of USD hegemony. Multiple sovereign are currently mining BTC. Multiple are likely accumulating in secret currently as well.
$BTC is running it back on a global stage, but this time around with pipes built out directly into the heart of TradFi.
In summary, yes, incumbent HODLers have begun to slightly distribute, but they are currently being met by an insatiable wall of money. It's going to be a wild ride ahead.
Finally, if you found any of this interesting or valuable, consider a share. 🧡🫡
Talk of ETF approval misses the forest for the trees. It's not just about immediate reactions or flows
It's about the recognition of
$BTC as an institutional asset. Pensions, endowments, insurance investment portfolios, etc., will soon be entering the arena with passive buy-side flows for the long term.
In December 2020, Mass Mutual invested $100m into bitcoin.
tinyurl.com/27ctpdd6
MASSIVE.... except not really. Mass Mutual manage $235b in assets, with long-dated fiat liabilities.
tinyurl.com/yz3b4hpn
$100m of
$BTC is a ~0.05% allocation...
Large institutional investors don't purchase something to flip it the next month. They are constructing portfolios for multiple decades.
A 0.05% allocation is just the start. There are many more many more Mass Mutuals out there, and all of these allocators are staring at their bond portfolio which is -50% from ATHs, questioning previous assumptions they held.
The endorsement by the likes of Larry Fink isn't a sign that Larry is suddenly a bitcoin bull, it's a sign that clients are knocking on BlackRock's door, asking for a vehicle to gain exposure.
The narrative violations are strong. Passive accumulation starting from the $69k ATH has you 45% right now on your bitcoin position. The same passive allocation into long bonds has you -12%.
"But the volatility!" Again, it's a misunderstanding of time horizon. A ~1% allocation to an asset that they don't plan to liquidate for years/decades, with an extremely strong sharpe ratio, is within their risk profile. If you want proof, just look at the rest of their portfolio...
- No, the orange coin is not going away.
- No, it did not die when FTX collapsed.
- Yes, supply is more tightly held than ever before.
- Yes, perpetual credit expansion of the fiat monetary system is an ongoing reality.
- No, there is no sense of fiscal austerity present ANYWHERE.
- Yes, this illiquidity means marginal flows into the market sends the price higher, which is why all of these institutions will start with a tiny ~0.05% stake, while continuing to passively allocate steadily for the long-term.
Reinforcing this all is the shift in narrative and negative bias around 'energy usage' and mining, evidenced by new academic papers on mining as a tool for balancing the grid and monetizing waste energy:
- Bitcoin could support renewable energy development, Cornell Engineering,
news.cornell.edu/stories/202…
- Leveraging Bitcoin Miners as Flexible Load Resources for Power System Stability and Efficiency, Co-authored by former ERCOT CEO,
papers.ssrn.com/sol3/papers.…
- From Mining to Mitigation: How Bitcoin Can Support Renewable Energy Development and Climate Action, ACS Sustainable Chemistry & Engineering,
resistance.money/research/mi…
The landscape and profile of the asset has shifted. It's not about the ETF, it's about the reason WHY the ETF is coming. Institutional exposure has been given a green light. It won't happen all at once, but understand the shift that is underway.
Bitcoin has been passively accumulated by individuals and retail for sometime now, while institutions mostly watched the madness from the sideline. This is changing.
Welcome.