At the election debrief the morning after I asked:
- Do we think the Conservative c. 40% will hold better than the Liberal one? (Yes)
- Is it likely that the black swan of Trump/Tariffs/drafting Carney is a repeatable trick? (No)
That means stay the course and the Conservatives should be favoured for the next general election. Changing paths feels like madness.
Are the Conservatives once again succumbing to Tory syndrome?
The recent criticism of Pierre Poilievre from within conservative circles has to be understood through the lens of a recurring condition on the Canadian Right: what political scientist George Perlin famously coined the “Tory syndrome.” It’s an enduring impulse—part psychological, part political—that leads Conservatives to question and doubt their own leaders even when they’re succeeding.
The Tory syndrome has deep roots in our political history. It’s the nagging sense among Conservatives that being too forceful or too popular somehow betrays the party’s deeper sense of itself as the defender of order, restraint, and moderation. From Robert Stanfield to Erin O’Toole, Conservative leaders have often faced as much hostility from inside their own tent as from outside it. The result is a pattern of self-doubt and internal critique that can sap the party’s confidence at moments of opportunity.
That dynamic is playing out again. While Poilievre has maintained support at or near record levels—polling roughly where the party stood at the time of April’s election call—Conservatives have spent the week debating his tone, his tactics, and even his temperament. If you didn’t know any better, you’d mistakenly think the party’s support was collapsing instead of actually being tied or leading several polls.
Meanwhile, the governing Liberals have been busy reversing themselves on one major issue after another. The latest about-face on bail reform follows reversals on carbon taxes, Canada Post’s operations, and more. At this point, the Carney government’s most notable accomplishments involve undoing Trudeau-era policies that elected and non-elected Liberals were defending mere months ago. Yet one doesn’t get the sense that Liberals are subjecting themselves to any comparable self-recrimination.
One could say that the Conservatives’ higher standards for themselves and their leaders are admirable. They reflect a seriousness about ideas and institutions that stands in contrast to the Liberals’ reflexive opportunism. But as a matter of politics, it’s hard to see how this kind of infighting advances the Conservative Party’s core goal of winning the next election.
The merger that created the modern Conservative Party in 2003 was supposed to mark the end of these old Tory complexes. It was meant to produce a confident, united party that could compete for power on its own terms.
The past week’s sniping and self-doubt suggest that the Tory syndrome still lingers and that Conservatives haven’t yet fully given up their historic tendency toward internecine politics.