...especially post-2021,.
The estimate is conservative due to variability in early years (1996–2006) where precise annual NOM figures are less accessible. Higher estimates (e.g., 650,000 for 2022–24 combined) suggest the total could be slightly higher.
Data excludes asylum seekers without permanent visas and focuses on NOM, as it best reflects population impact.
2. Number of New Dwellings BuiltData on dwelling completions is sourced from ABS publications, particularly “Building Activity, Australia” (ABS Cat. No. 8752.0), and supplemented by industry reports and government data. The ABS provides quarterly and annual data on new residential dwellings (houses, apartments, townhouses) completed, but comprehensive data for 1996–2024 requires some aggregation and estimation for earlier years.Dwelling Completions Data Overview1996–2007 (Howard’s Tenure):During the Howard era, Australia experienced a housing construction boom, particularly in the early 2000s, driven by economic growth and population demand.
ABS data (historical summaries) indicates annual dwelling completions averaged around 130,000–150,000 during this period. For example:1996–2000: Approximately 130,000 dwellings per year (based on ABS housing approvals data and completion rates).
2000–2007: Increased to ~150,000 per year, with peaks in 2003–04 (e.g., 158,000 completions) due to strong economic conditions.
Estimating for 11.75 years (1996–2007):Using an average of 140,000 dwellings per year (midpoint estimate): 11.75 × 140,000 ≈ 1,645,000 dwellings.
This aligns with industry reports noting ~1.5–1.7 million completions during this period.
2007–2024 (Post-Howard to Latest Data):Post-2007, dwelling completions fluctuated due to economic conditions, policy changes, and construction cycles. Key data points from ABS:2007–2012: Averaged ~145,000 completions annually, with a dip during the Global Financial Crisis (e.g., ~130,000 in 2009–10).
2012–2019: Increased to ~180,000–200,000 annually, peaking at 223,000 in 2018–19 due to apartment construction booms in Sydney and Melbourne.
2019–2022: Declined to ~170,000 annually due to COVID-19 disruptions (supply chain issues, labor shortages).
2022–2024: Rebounded to ~180,000 annually, with 178,000 completions in 2023–24 (ABS preliminary data).
Estimating for 2007–2024 (17 years):2007–2012 (5 years): 5 × 145,000 = 725,000.
2012–2019 (7 years): 7 × 190,000 = 1,330,000.
2019–2022 (3 years): 3 × 170,000 = 510,000.
2022–2024 (2 years): 2 × 178,000 = 356,000.
Total Dwellings (2007–2024): 725,000 1,330,000 510,000 356,000 ≈ 2,921,000.
Total Dwellings (1996–2024):1996–2007: ~1,645,000.
2007–2024: ~2,921,000.
Grand Total: 1,645,000 2,921,000 ≈ 4,566,000 dwellings.
Notes on Dwelling DataDwelling completions include private and public sector constructions (detached houses, semi-detached, apartments). Data excludes renovations or non-residential buildings.
ABS data is robust from 2001 onwards; earlier years (1996–2000) rely on approximations from housing approvals (which slightly overestimate completions).
Regional variations exist (e.g., Sydney and Melbourne account for ~56% of completions), but national totals are used here.
3. ComparisonMigrants (NOM): ~5,689,800 (1996–2024).
New Dwellings: ~4,566,000 (1996–2024).
Ratio: Approximately 1.25 migrants per new dwelling (5,689,800 ÷ 4,566,000).
This suggests that, on average, more migrants arrived than new dwellings were built, potentially contributing to housing demand pressures. However, this ratio oversimplifies the relationship, as:Not all migrants require new dwellings (e.g., students may share rentals, families may join existing households).
Household sizes vary (average ~2.5 persons per dwelling in Australia).
Some dwellings house non-migrants or remain vacant (e.g., investment properties).
4. Critical ConsiderationsMigration and Housing Demand: While high NOM contributes to housing demand, migrants also work in construction...