$RLAY is an interesting case study because from the time they announced their initial 2L pi3k serd PFS data in HER2-/HR breast cancer the stock went down ~60% over the next 5 months (coincident with bad macro environment) and then up ~530% over the next 12 months. As Jonathon points out, the stock steadily trended up from Apr 2025 to Mar 2026 to a current 2.2B market cap. How? Why?
First, the PI3Ki HER2-/HR landscape has changed a but in the last few years. Invalosib (Roche), a selective PI3Kα inhibitor, recieved BTD in May 2024 and approval in October 2024 for triplet invalosib fulvestrant palbociclib in endocrine resistant HR /HER- mutant PIK3CA breast cancer. Improved median OS by 7 months from 27 to 34 compared to fulvestrant palbociclib (Jhaveri et al NEJM 2025). Capivasertib (AstraZeneca), a pan-AKT inhibitor, initially approved in late 2023 is indicated for PIK3CA/AKT1/PTEN-altered HR /HER2- breast cancers following at least 1 endocrine based therapy. In the CAPITello291 trial in this setting oround 70% of patients had prior CDK4/6 inhibitor therapy. In AKT altered tumors, overall survival was 70% at 20 months in capi-fulvestrant treated patients compared to ~60% at 20 months in fulvestrant monotherapy patients.
Positioning for zovegalisib
$rlay is PIK3CA-mutant HR /HER2- breast cancer patients with prior treatment of 1-2 endocrine therapy and 1 CDK4/6 inhibitor therapy. Open label trial. Excluded if prior PIK3/AKT/mTOR pathway drug has been given. This means invalosib treated patients are ineligible. Of course, invalosib triplet is an earlier line of therapy so that narrows the pool of patients considerably for zovegalisib if approved. Has a 4 month PFS improvement relative to capi-fulvestrant comparing across trials (VERY rough, but that's what we have till the ReDISCOVER2 trial reads out)
Zovegalisib targets a different site on PI3Ka than inavolisib and is billed as a more mutant selective molecule. This comes with better tumor specificity and if so, less side effects. Relative to doublet, inavo triplet carries on an absolute basis, a 7% higher hyperglycemia grade 3 rate, 6% higher grade 3 stomatitis, 10% higher thrombocytopenia rate. Relative to fulvestrant, capi combination carries on an absolute basis, a 9% higher grade 3 diarrhea rate, 12% higher grade 3 rash, 2% grade 3 hyperglycemia rate. Absolute rates of grade 3 AEs at the phase 3 dose for zovegalisib is similar to inavo triplet and a bit better than capi-fulvestrant.
$rlay zoveg may be a more efficacious and tolerable drug than capi BUT the patient population is going to be cut considerably given
$rlay can only give their drug to patients NOT given inavo triplet.
Summary of relevant corporate actions from Dec 2024 to Apr 2026:
- Reprioritized pipeline and focused on PIK3CA program after seeing interim safety and efficacy data in Q4 2024 from open-label phase 1 study.
- Jan through April of 2025, like most other small biotechs, stock got hit hard due to macro factors.
- Outlicensed FGFR2 program to Elevar, delayed initiation of fabry and nras programs (originally slated for 2025 IND but still yet to file), cut research programs and costs. More disciplined cash usage. Discipline, pare down.
- Board member stepped down and new board member appointed in June 2025. New board member experienced in oncology drug development.
- Aug 2025 start phase 3 trial. Primary completion expected in 2028.
- Brought in two other board members in Nov 2025 who were experienced in commercializing / developing biotech drugs.
- Get breakthrough designation from FDA in Feb 2026.
- Report data in Mar 2026 from open label phase 1b study at the phase 3 dose and compare efficacy/safety head to head against previous dose strategy (Dec 2024).
- Apr 2026 announced that they will present data on vascular abnormalities in May.
$RLAY- great example of how a stock can go from hated back to the market's good graces