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BTC #options expire on Deribit in 22 min. Max Pain agrees with Magnetic Strike this time pointing at $63,000. It was a fairly calm evolution towards expiry. It tells a lot about trading and market itself... @DeribitInsights #Deribit #cryptooptions $BTC #CayøLargo
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Jun 10
Arthur Hayes just wrote his most bearish piece in months. The chain he's drawing: → US-Iran war keeps Strait of Hormuz disrupted → Oil grinds higher through Q2 → Trump needs votes — turns on AI tech bros to win the House → SpaceX, Anthropic, OpenAI mega IPOs disappoint at insane valuations → AI credit collapses → liquidity drains → BTC dumps first → Then the Big Print arrives. BTC rises from the ashes. His move: sold $HYPE, $NEAR, $WLD. Long energy. Holds BTC. The scariest line in the whole essay — AI debt issued since 2022 matched US M2 growth dollar for dollar. Every created dollar went into AI. Bitcoin never had a chance. Full read: cryptohayes.medium.com/reali… #Bitcoin #BTC #CryptoOptions #ArthurHayes #Macro
New Essay dropped "Reality Test" Am I dreaming - or is AI investing as easy as buying a subscription to Citrini Research and buying every stonk they write about? Am I dreaming - or does the price of oil not matter to economics or politics and that is why Trump and the IRGC can continue trading rhetorical barbs over social media while ships languish in the Strait of Hormuz? Am I dreaming - or does the 2-year US treasury yield trading 0.5% over the effective funds rate not lead to the Fed raising rates at an upcoming meeting? Am I dreaming - or can the entire gains of AI to America accrue to a few tech bro douche nozzles? To check whether I’m lucid dreaming about this FUBAR universe in which I inhabit, I must perform a reality test. And if this test fails, I know I am dreaming and must alter my portfolio. Let this essay be that test, and at the end of the cathartic experience that is tap-tapping on my word processor, my portfolio will have undergone immense changes or none at all. My theory at the outset is that I am indeed dreaming. The most important variable that exerts a reflexive effect upon the whole investing complex is the price of oil and other hydrocarbons. Our ability to experience the universe hinges on the efficiency with which we convert energy into biological and or artificial intelligence. Nothing violates this truth. And while the markets may, for a blip in time, appear to negate this law, shit always comes back to bite you in the proverbial ass. ... full essay on my substack
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A massive concentration of market structural friction is shifting across the crypto derivatives complex. Options dealer data confirms that institutional positioning has entered a critical short gamma squeeze window following Strategy Inc.'s ($MSTR) high-profile 1,550 BTC purchase. Looking at the intraday structural mechanics for Bitcoin ($BTC) shown in the data: The Negative Gamma Regime: Net GEX has flipped negative to -618.09M (with gross negative exposure expanding to 1.36B). Spot price at 62,549.69 is trading directly underneath the local Zero GEX flip point. In this structural regime, options market makers are forced to act as volatility accelerators, programmatically selling futures into any further spot weakness to remain delta-neutral. The Institutional Floor: Downside liquidation risk faces an absolute, massive structural firewall at the 60,000 Put Wall (Absolute GEX Max GEX carrying a monumental -611.41M concentration). Watch these liquidity boundaries and dealer positions closely; while the current short gamma profile triggers aggressive intraday counter-trend cascading flushes, the massive 60,000 strike establishes an ironclad institutional barrier. Any major macroeconomic or speculative washouts will immediately hit this multi-million dollar liquidity pool, forcing rapid institutional absorption. #CryptoOptions #BTC #Bitcoin #GEX #TradingLevels #MarketStructure #TechnicalAnalysis $BTC $MSTR
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A massive concentration of market structural friction is shifting across the crypto derivatives complex, with Bitcoin ($BTC) entering a high-stakes operational regime. Looking at the intraday structural mechanics for $BTC: The Negative Gamma Flip: Spot is currently slipping down to 62,562.46, trading precariously beneath the Zero GEX flip point at 62,657.38. By breaking below this critical threshold, market makers are forced out of their volatility-dampening buffer and directly into a short gamma regime, meaning dealers must programmatically short futures into further price weakness, accelerating intraday downward momentum. The Structural Ceiling: Any immediate upward recovery faces an explicit mechanical barrier at the 63,000 Call Wall (Absolute GEX Max GEX carrying a 129.89M concentration). Options market makers will aggressively short overhead expansion here to hedge their books, capping minor bullish breakout attempts. Watch these core boundaries closely; as long as spot trades below Zero GEX, the market remains highly sensitive to localized cascading flushes. However, a major systematic breakdown remains structurally insulated over the medium term, backed by an immutable, heavy-duty Put Wall anchored down at 60,000 (-611.41M) to serve as the ultimate macro liquidity floor. #CryptoOptions #BTC #Bitcoin #GEX #TradingLevels #MarketStructure #TechnicalAnalysis $BTC
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youtu.be/5J7omTRr1Cc?si=MZZb… Choosing the right option setup can make a huge difference in your trading results. In this video, we walk through three key decisions every trader should understand when trading Deri Perpetual Options: • When to choose a Call versus a Put • When to trade At the Money versus Out of the Money options • How traders can potentially earn funding by shorting Out of the Money options You'll also learn how strike prices, funding mechanics, and option sensitivity can impact your risk and reward profile. Unlike traditional options, Deri Perpetual Options have no expiration date. Positions can remain open as long as sufficient margin is maintained, allowing traders to express market views without constantly rolling positions. Whether you're trading directional moves, targeting specific price levels, or exploring advanced options strategies, understanding how to select the right option setup is an important first step. Explore Deri: deri.io What option strategy would you like us to explain next? Let us know in the comments. #Deri #Bitcoin #BTC #CryptoTrading #OptionsTrading #PerpetualOptions #DeFi #CryptoOptions #TradingStrategy #FundingRate
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A massive concentration of market structural defense is locking into the crypto ecosystem following Strategy Inc.’s ($MSTR) high-profile 1,550 BTC purchase, with major institutional venues revealing strong positive dealer buffering across the big three assets. Bitcoin ($BTC): Stands firmly supported in a clean positive structural regime with Net GEX heavily positive at 871.13M. Spot at 63,750.62 has pushed safely north of local inflection cliffs, anchored by a towering positive gamma wall at the 64,000 strike. Dealers here are acting as natural volatility dampeners, programmatically buying pullbacks. Ethereum ($ETH): Mirrors this stabilizing structural setup, carrying a positive Net GEX of 138.29M. Spot at 1,684.63 is well-insulated by a dense cluster of positive gamma strikes overhead at 1,700, minimizing erratic downside tail risk as long as spot hovers within this zone. Solana ($SOL): Exhibits a highly concentrated, positive dealer hedging profile with Net GEX at 590.43K. Spot at 66.72 is pinned right below a massive structural wall at the 68 strike, meaning any minor push past this local cliff will force dealers into an aggressive buying loop to cover their short calls. #CryptoOptions #BTC #ETH #SOL #GEX #TradingLevels #MicroStrategy $BTC $ETH $SOL
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A massive concentration of positive Gamma is built around the 64,000 strike, providing a solid upside anchor just above the spot price (dashed line at 63,171.96). Net GEX sits positive at 478.47M (with Net Delta at 2.09B). Watch this 63,171.96 level closely ahead of the open; the market structure is well-supported by positive clusters, meaning dealers will act as natural shock-absorbers on minor pullbacks, keeping spot price action relatively insulated unless a broader liquidation slips past the 60,000 floor. #CryptoOptions #BTC #Bitcoin #GEX #TradingLevels bitcoin:native dashboardoptions.com
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A massive concentration of positive Gamma is built around the 64,000 strike, providing a solid upside anchor just above the spot price (dashed line at 63,171.96). Net GEX sits positive at 478.47M (with Net Delta at 2.09B). Watch this 63,171.96 level closely ahead of the open; the market structure is well-supported by positive clusters, meaning dealers will act as natural shock-absorbers on minor pullbacks, keeping spot price action relatively insulated unless a broader liquidation slips past the 60,000 floor. #CryptoOptions #BTC #Bitcoin #GEX #TradingLevels bitcoin:native dashboardoptions.com
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A massive concentration of negative Gamma is built at the 60,000 strike (solid green line), confirming the ultimate Put Wall strength. Net GEX is tightly balanced but leaning defensive as the price hovers just below the inflection line. Watch the 63,302.95 Zero Gamma level closely ahead of the open; staying pinned below this flip point keeps bitcoin:native in a short gamma regime where dealers must sell into weakness, widening intraday volatility unless a clean break back above it brings back a stabilizing long gamma environment. #CryptoOptions #BTC #Bitcoin #GEX #TradingLevels bitcoin:native dashboardoptions.com
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A massive concentration of negative Gamma is built at the 60,000 strike (solid green line), confirming the ultimate Put Wall strength. Net GEX is tightly balanced but leaning defensive as the price hovers just below the inflection line. Watch the 63,302.95 Zero Gamma level closely ahead of the open; staying pinned below this flip point keeps bitcoin:native in a short gamma regime where dealers must sell into weakness, widening intraday volatility unless a clean break back above it brings back a stabilizing long gamma environment. #CryptoOptions #BTC #Bitcoin #GEX #TradingLevels bitcoin:native dashboardoptions.com
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Jun 7
In October 1997, two men won the Nobel Prize in Economics. Their formula, they said, could price any option in the world with perfect mathematical precision. The committee called it one of the greatest discoveries in modern finance. Twelve months later, the Federal Reserve had to call an emergency meeting to prevent their hedge fund from collapsing the global financial system. This is the story of Implied Volatility , and the most expensive lesson in the history of options trading. Their names were Myron Scholes and Robert Merton. Together with John Meriwether, they ran Long-Term Capital Management " LTCM " out of Greenwich, Connecticut. The strategy was elegant. Their models showed that volatility in financial markets always reverts to normal. When fear spikes, it eventually calms. So they did something simple: they sold that fear. Every time the market priced options expensively , because traders were scared , LTCM sold those options. They collected the premium. Then waited for calm to return. For four years, they were right. 1994: 21%. 1995: 43%. 1996: 41%. At their peak, they controlled $126 billion in positions with just $7.5 billion in equity. A leverage ratio of 25 to 1. The best minds on Wall Street sent them money. The models were perfect. Then in August 1998, Russia defaulted on its debt. The market didn't calm down. Volatility didn't revert. Fear didn't fade. It exploded , and kept exploding. Their models had never seen anything like it. Because their models assumed the world was normal. The world was not normal. LTCM lost $4.6 billion in five weeks. 90% of their equity — gone. The Federal Reserve called the 14 largest banks on Wall Street into a room and told them to write a $3.6 billion check. Not a request. A warning. Because if LTCM unwound their positions , markets worldwide would collapse. So what is Implied Volatility? IV is not the price of an option. IV is the fear the market has baked into that price. → When IV is low — options are cheap. The market is calm. Sellers collect premium. → When IV spikes options become expensive. The market is panicking. Sellers face ruin. → LTCM's fatal mistake: they assumed IV always comes back down. Russia proved it doesn't have to. In $BTC options, IV explodes before every major move. When you see it spike , the market is pricing a storm. You can buy that storm. You can sell into it. But you cannot ignore it and call yourself a trader. LTCM had two Nobel Prize winners and 125 PhD's. They forgot one thing: the market does not care about your model. Markets can stay irrational longer than you can stay solvent. #Bitcoin #BTC #CryptoOptions #ImpliedVolatility #OptionsTrading #LTCM #CryptoEducation #Web3 #Crypto
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Is Bitcoin’s bull market broken? Andreja Cobeljic, Head of Derivatives at AMINA Bank, was on @DeribitExchange’s Crypto Options Unplugged this week. Here’s what stood out 🧵 #Bitcoin #CryptoOptions #DigitalAssets #InstitutionalFinance #AMINA
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📊 数据面|链上与期权全面偏空 ETF资金BTC现货ETF 5/28净流出 -$2.233亿,ETH现货ETF -$1.213亿。Coinbase持续深度负溢价,美国机构出货无任何反转迹象。 期权异动ETH $1,800/$1,900看跌期权买盘约为正常水平的5倍,市场在主动押注进一步下行。 ⏰ 今日月度期权到期——$75亿名义价值清算窗口 BTC: 名义$62.1亿,P/C比0.88,最大痛点$75,000,现价偏离 -2.2% ETH:名义$12.9亿,P/C比0.81,最大痛点$2,200,现价偏离 -10% ETH: 偏离10%,做市商理论上有对冲需求向上修复;但$1,800/$1,900看跌5倍异常买盘同时形成压制。到期后gamma清空,市场进入6月新结构——这是今日最重要的机械性变量。 📉 链上结构STH成本基础$78,000,True Market Mean $78,300,现价$73,380在两者下方逾$4,600,短期持有者全面深度浮亏。需重新站稳$78K才能确认结构性反转,当前反弹仍属出清间隙的技术性修复。 #BTC #ETH #加密货币 #链上数据 #期权到期 #ETF #CryptoOptions #OnChain #CryptoMarket #比特币 #以太坊
宏观日报 🌐 2026.05.28 🔴 加密|结构性背离是当前最大风险 BTC $73,380 / ETH $2,000,昨日击穿关键支撑后今日技术性反弹,但机构端持续派发压力未减。24小时全市场爆仓超15万人,较前夜继续扩大。 真正需要警惕的不是跌幅本身:美股连续6日创收盘新高、日经涨近2%、韩国KOSPI涨超2.7%、油价地缘溢价大幅消化——全球风险偏好全面修复,加密却未能跟随。这种结构性背离历史上从不会长期维持,在机构派发压力未明显减轻前,反弹更宜视作短线窗口而非趋势逆转。 🛢️ 美伊|谈判"罗生门",地缘溢价暂被消化 美媒报道美伊已就60天谅解备忘录达成一致,核心条款:霍尔木兹无限制通行 伊朗30天内清雷 承诺不发展核武。伊朗谈判代表随即公开否认,称"尚未同意任何备忘录"。 冲突仍在持续:霍尔木兹鸣枪示警、弹道导弹被拦截、5架自杀无人机被击落。布油单日振幅近6%,最终收回至WTI $88.53 / 布油 $92.23,地缘溢价暂被协议预期消化但并未消失。美财长贝森特划定红线:交出高浓缩铀 霍尔木兹必须开放,否则不接受任何协议。 高盛警示:全球原油可视库存5月底将降至73天需求量,结构性供给偏紧为油价提供中期支撑,通胀尾部风险未根本消除。 📉 宏观|GDP下修强化鸽派,但加密不能只靠这个 美国Q1 GDP二次修正下调至1.6%(初值2%),主因投资与消费支出数据下修。CME FedWatch显示6月维持利率不变概率达99.4%。核心PCE未出现失控,美联储紧缩压力实质性下降。 对美股,"坏数据=降息预期=好消息"的逻辑继续成立。对加密,鸽派宏观是必要条件而非充分条件——没有资金面配合,方向性行情难以形成。 📈 美股与亚太|风险偏好全面修复 标普 0.58%,纳指 0.91%,连续6日收盘新高。微软 3%、ARM 10%、超威 4%、Snowflake 36%。戴尔盘后飙涨39%。三星电子 6%,首批12层HBM4E样品已向全球客户交付,AI存储产业链景气持续走强。 💡 Monera Research 今日观点 全球资产已在定价"软着陆 降息预期 地缘缓和"的组合,加密的背离说明市场对这一资产类别的信心修复尚未到位。短期内关注链上资金流向与机构持仓变化,价格本身给不了答案。 #BTC #ETH #crypto #宏观 #PCE #美联储 #中东局势 #原油 #WTI #半导体 #加密市场 #宏观日报
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May 26
We asked @ShiliangTang, Founder and Managing Partner at @monarq_mgmt why crypto options haven’t seen the explosive, exponential growth of perpetuals yet. His answer? Options are fundamentally an institutional product. The next wave of options growth will be fueled by institutions bringing TradFi-style strategies into the space. Launched in October 8th, 2025, Bullish has become a leading globally regulated options venue, built for institutions: 📈 $6B BTC options open interest reached, #2 globally (The Block, April 24, 2026) 🗓️ Daily, weekly, monthly & quarterly expiries 🎯 Fixed strikes ranging from 5 to 95 delta 💰Lower margin through portfolio netting across spot, perpetuals, futures, and options on the same underlying. Watch Shiliang break down the future of the crypto options market. 👇 #Bullish #CryptoOptions #InstitutionalCrypto #MarketStructure (Views expressed are those of the speakers and do not represent the views of their organizations. Options trading involves significant risk and is not suitable for all investors. Please review Bullish's risk disclosures prior to trading. This is not investment advice.)
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🚨 BREAKING: 比特币期权即将登陆纳斯达克 Nasdaq 旗下 PHLX 已获 SEC 有条件批准,将上线现金结算的比特币指数期权,代码 QBTC,追踪 CME CF 比特币实时指数(BRTT),仅待 CFTC 最终批准。 关键亮点: ✅ 每份合约对应 1 BTC(CME 标准为 5 BTC),合约规模更小,散户和中小机构都能参与 ✅ 通过现有券商账户直接交易,无需单独开设期货/衍生品账户 ✅ 欧式期权、现金结算,到期自动按价差结算美元 相比 CME 比特币期权(需衍生品账户、5 BTC/手),Nasdaq QBTC 大幅降低了参与门槛。这标志着比特币衍生品进入主流交易所的又一里程碑。 华尔街的大门正加速向加密敞开。 #Bitcoin #BTC #Nasdaq #CryptoOptions #加密货币
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Tomorrow: How to actually buy a Put on BTC — strike price, expiry, and how much to pay. Follow 🔔 7/7 #Bitcoin #BTC #CryptoOptions #PutOption #GeorgeSoros #BlackWednesday #CryptoEducation #OptionsTrading #Crypto #Web3
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Tomorrow: How to think about strike prices on BTC options — with real examples from the last cycle. Follow 🔔 so you don't miss it. #Bitcoin #BTC #CryptoOptions #OptionsTrading #CryptoEducation #MichaelBurry #TheBigShort #Web3 #Crypto #BTC
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Holding BTC spot but worried about downside risk? In this video, we break down how traders can use Deri perpetual options to hedge BTC holdings through a covered call strategy while continuously earning funding fees. Unlike traditional options, Deri perpetual options have no expiration date. As long as your margin is sufficient, positions can stay open indefinitely without constantly rolling over contracts. In this example: • Hold BTC spot at 70,000 • Open a short BTC 70,000 call on Deri • Hedge downside risk while collecting funding fees if BTC weakens We also compare this strategy with: • Long put options • Futures hedging • Traditional expiring options You'll learn why perpetual options can provide: • More flexible risk management • Better capital efficiency • Higher funding opportunities • Cleaner directional exposure Perfect for: • BTC spot holders • Options traders • Advanced DeFi users • Traders looking for alternatives to futures youtube.com/watch?v=dKYwspbF… #BTC #OptionsTrading #CryptoTrading #Deri #Bitcoin #PerpetualOptions #CoveredCall #DeFi #TradingStrategy #CryptoOptions
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