Woke up and thought let's do some quick maths & guesstimating for fun. Using rough approximations, it appears AMZN and MSFT are credibly bringing on 2 GWs/yr each over the next 1-2 years while META and GOOGL in the 1-2 GW/yr range. ORCL ambitions seem to be ~2 GWs/yr as well.
DatacenterHawk vs. DCByte (diff sources = diff methodologies) - Current Capacity:
-AMZN ~8 GW self-build vs. ~4.7 GW live
-MSFT ~4.4 GW self-build vs. ~3.3 GW live
-GOOGL~4.7 GW self-build vs. ~3.5 GW live
-META ~2.9 GW self-build vs. ~3.8 GW live
-If you include leased for DCH = AMZN-10.6 GW, MSFT-8.6 GW, GOOGL-6.1 GW, META-5.0 GW
-ORCL leases all their capacity today at ~2.5 GW
Under Construction (same two sources):
-AMZN ~3.4 GW vs. ~1.61 GW
-MSFT ~1.8 GW vs. ~1.72 GW
-GOOGL~1.4 GW vs. ~1.53 GW
-META - ~1.6 GW vs. ~2.17 GW
We know AMZN and MSFT are the largest and seem to also be the fastest. ORCL is attempting a rapid scale-up so will probably move aggressively.
-AMZN 3Q25: 3.8 GW added in the last 12 months. ≥1 GW more to be energized in Q4 CY25. Now double the power capacity they had in 2022 and on track to double again by 2027.
-MSFT 2Q 3Q25: 2 GW of new capacity over the past 12 months and will increase total AI capacity by over 80% this year and roughly double our total data-center footprint over the next two years.
-GOOGL: Joint release with Anthropic states Google Cloud will provide the AI start-up “well over a gigawatt of capacity coming online in 2026"
-META: bring online almost 1 GW of capacity this year (CY-2025) and is building a 2 GW (and potentially larger) AI data center.
>ORCL 3Q25: management said contracted power capacity will “double this calendar year and triple by the end of next fiscal year" 4.5 GW deal with OpenAI
>So if we assume AMZN has 5-11GW and plan to double next years implies ~2.5-5.5 GW/yr.
>MSFT at ~3-9GW and plan to double next two years implies 1.5-4.5 GW/yr.
>Checks out as faster to GOOGL and Meta which appear to be in the 1-2 GW/yr range based on the above data points?
>ORCL maybe bringing online ~5 GW to go from 2.5 to 7.5 GW from 2025-YE26. That is consistent with the 4.5 GW partnership with OAI but expected to be over several years. If you count that as 1yr, seems insanely fast. I'm thinking it's more likely in the ~2.5 GW/yr conversation too which is in-line with the other fastest in market scalers.
Sense check: Bain has 16 GW hyperscale self-build 13GW hyperscale co-lo as of 2024. This moves to 38 GW and 23 GW, respectively in 2027. So 22 GW self-build for hyperscalers, call it 11 GW/yr. For sake of convo let's say AMZN - 4-5 GW, MSFT - 2-3 GW, ORCL - 2 GW, GOOGL - 1-2 GW, META 1-2 GW = ~10-14 GW per year. Generally in-line.
Build-outs of who owns the GW.