A canonical El Niño appears increasingly plausible on the horizon. However, I agree that many models may be overstating the pace of recovery from La Niña conditions. The emergence of localized subsurface and surface heat anomalies “heat blobs” in key regions is understandably steering model consensus toward a rapid and steady transition into a positive ENSO phase and maybe worse scenario of super Nino .
That said, these models often rely on assumptions that background variability and noise remain relatively stable and well-constrained, which can lead to smoother and more confident projections than reality may support. Also, those models assume steady and consistent atmospheric coupling may last for ever without surprises or interruptions , but the real physical universe is not a straightforward road . It is more awkward and intertwined than we can simplify in linegraphs indeed.
Given the extended La Niña to neutral period between 2020 and 2025, the system’s internal dynamics may not behave as cleanly as modeled.
Importantly, our practical experience with indices such as RONI remains limited. This phase should be approached as a learning opportunity, refining interpretation, validating assumptions, and improving methodological robustness, rather than engaging in unproductive criticism.