7/2/25
TradFi
Markets finished the day 0.47% today. Private payrolls came in much weaker than expected, and saw risk sell off pre-market. But stocks steadily climbed during the day, perhaps supported by the idea that a weaker labor market would bolster the case for more interest rate cuts.
We've now gotten conflicting data this week regarding the job market with JOLTS coming in stronger than expected yesterday and ADP coming in weaker than expected. Nonfarm payrolls tomorrow should be interesting, and the most telling of the jobs data this week. We also have ISM/PMI services data, and durable goods orders tomorrow.
Trump also announced that a trade deal with Vietnam had been finalized, with a 20% export tariff and 40% tariff on goods shipped through Vietnam from other countries. I suppose this is close to the low end expectation of 10%, but man is it still quite high. You also had Trump yapping yesterday about 30-35% tariff rates on Japan, which at least, seemed to spook the crypto markets.
Again, it's probably good that rates are coming in closer to 10% than some of the Liberation day numbers but I still think that in the medium to longer term these rates are way too high and will stifle growth. I also feel like trade talks are a much bigger risk after the past couple of days than I felt earlier in the week.
Rate cuts for the year sitting at -2.56, up slightly from yesterdays low of -2.73. Yields are up 5-7bps from Monday and 2-4bps from yesterday.
Oh one thing to note about the
$RTACU trade I flagged the other day. So I've learned that there is a call from the issuer at $18/share on these warrants. That is to say that the issuer is able to force conversion at $11.50/share if the stock is trading at $18 for 20 days (in the past 30 days). This wrinkle definitely explains the implied volatility discount, so it caps upside somewhat for
$RTACW.
In essence, the warrants will retain value but the time value of the option basically collapses from 5-years to much much less than that if the stock starts trading above $18. There's also a bit of gymnastics with respect to potentially having to fund the $11.50 that we'll need to work around but the warrant should trade pretty close to fair value (since we are still getting the upside from $11.50) and one should be able to trade out of it without issue (and not have to fund).
Crypto
Majors continue to look great here, after looking a bit shaky yesterday.
$BTC seems to have broken out from the diagonal resistance line that had been capping price since the ATH break. Hopefully a break of the highs comes in short order.
I have also broken my promise to myself and purchased
$IBIT calls again. This time more long dated (March 2026 expiry) with a $65 strike. I'm betting we break out here and that we'll see a sustained uptrend within the next 6-9 months. In hindsight, playing <60 day calls was sort of insane on my part. Even if I thought an event would happen in 60 days, I should always give myself some wiggle room to not be trapped by the collapsing theta.
The
$SOL staking ETF (
$SSK) also went live today. Around ~$34mm of volume traded, so not nothing. Not exactly sure what the market was expecting but these aren't blow the roof off the house type of numbers. Still the
$SOL chart is looking very healthy at the moment.
[My Bags] continue to look very solid. Pasternak saying some cryptic shit about Stripe for coins. I don't know what it means, but it's proactive. I'm on my knees begging for a flywheel announcement for
#launchcoin.
A bit of drama on
$PROMPT yesterday. I've been bagholding this since launch and we'd gotten some good momentum on the back of Chang going Chang mode on the coin. But the team's socials were hacked and we lost our KOL. Still think the concept is intriguing but the whole episode sucks the wind out of the room a bit.
To be honest, most of these ICM coins are perking up as
#Launchcoin finds its legs. I think I'm basically riding everything I've owned since the start of the meta --
$KLED,
$KNET,
$HYLX,
$PROMPT,
$PIPEIQ,
#GIGGLES,
$YAPPER,
$RIPVC,
$GOONC,
#Unicorn,
#Fitcoin, and
$AURA. Honestly have high hopes for all of them, except maybe
$AURA. At the very least I'm hoping for re-rating on the back of
#Launchcoin strength but definitely need to asses if the upside is as good as just owning
#launchcoin itself.
Added a couple new line items to the book the past couple days.
#Bluechip is basically my cope play on the
Bonk.fun ecosystem. I basically sold most of my bags at the lows and have been badly sidelined this whole way up. I'm basically betting on the cabal and cope fueling this one higher. Pretty small sizing (<1% of book) to match my conviction with an entry around $2.5mm.
#Labubu is the other coin I added. I swapped out of a few laggards in the book and entered ~$31mm for ~2% of book. I mostly entered based on the chart, which was printing a beautiful bull flag. We're coming up against resistance at the moment, but if we punch through ~41mm we could really start seeing this move. Aside from the chart, I just felt like this was a nice candidate to move up given the long period of distribution, and high mindshare in the real world. I know trading attention feels like a tired meta but this feels like a coin that does well if we "return to tradition."
Oh, I actually bought I microcap that I think has some upside. I'm not going to say the ticker because it might actually change the PA but basically the trade is premised on the upcoming holiday weekend and people hammering Netflix content and finding this show. Again, if you find it, it's like super speculative and I own a decent chunk and plan on selling if it goes up this weekend. I don't plan on owning it very long.
Emotions et al.
Still a bit under the weather but feeling relatively neutral to expanded. I definitely felt euphoric during the day. Usually a sign to sell but surely this can't always be a sell signal?
I may post again tomorrow, but there's a chance I'm just scrambling to get out the door for the holiday weekend. Really excited to hang out with friends for what is becoming an annual tradition. Should be a good time. Looking forward to coming back refreshed and ready to lock in.
Wishing everyone a great holiday weekend for those that celebrate!