🚨‼️Phase Zero Is Here — And We’re Not Ready
ISW warns that Russia has entered “Phase Zero”, the conditioning phase for a potential confrontation with NATO.
That means espionage, sabotage, and those “unidentified” drone flights over military sites and critical infrastructure across Europe.
In plain English: the groundwork for a future attack is being laid right now, not later.
This isn’t just Ukraine. European leaders are now openly describing a targeted grey-zone campaign: airspace violations, drone incursions, cyberattacks, and sabotage probes designed to test our responses and willpower.
People often say: “Russia can’t win a conventional war against NATO.” On paper? Maybe. NATO (still) has more planes, ships, and people. But wars are decided by morale, resilience, and how quickly societies can absorb shocks and keep functioning.
That’s where I see a dangerous gap: the Baltics and the Nordics have been drilling whole-of-society defence for years; west of Poland, we’re still talking around the problem.
Time for honesty with citizens. Offer public, practical preparation now: first-aid/trauma classes, civil-defence refreshers, local alert/volunteer networks, and clear guidance for blackouts and infrastructure disruption.
In Germany, even the public booklet for the Operations Plan for Germany (OPLAN DEU) exists, so let’s actually explain it broadly and train against it.
Preparation is not panic. It’s deterrence and if deterrence fails, it’s how we cope and recover.
Source for Phase Zero: Institute for the Study of War assessments and map of Russian Phase-0 activities.
#NATO #Russia #PhaseZero #HybridWar #CivilDefense #Resilience #Germany #Baltics #Preparedness #ISW
⚠️ ISW: Russia is already preparing for war with NATO — and may strike sooner than intelligence agencies expect
The U.S.-based Institute for the Study of War reports that Moscow has entered what it calls “Phase Zero” — the stage of preparation for a potential confrontation with the Alliance. This includes espionage, sabotage, and unidentified drone flights over military bases and strategic facilities across Europe.
ISW notes that Russia is building up its reserves and developing new tactics for warfare without relying on massive armored forces.
🔻According to experts, the Kremlin is already gaining significant experience in modern warfare and could launch new aggression without waiting for its army to fully recover from the war in Ukraine.