2022 World Cup. Prediction markets did $138,000. Total. The whole tournament. I could fit that number in a Honda Civic and still have room for groceries.🧐 This World Cup just did $8.7 billion. In one week. Kalshi crossed $100 billion in lifetime volume. Messi is the face of it. Robinhood is making half a billion from it. That's not growth. That's the ground shifting under your feet.🫰 Two years ago, prediction markets were a Discord secret. Crypto natives on Polygon. USDC wallets. "Truth machine" was a meme you had to explain at parties. Today it's a CFTC-regulated exchange. An Argentine FA sponsorship. A Bernstein analyst note with a $586M revenue target. The Super Bowl had $14M in event contracts. The World Cup had $4.8 billion in a single day.🤒🥹 I'm not here to tell you this is good or bad. It's both. The people who built this wanted a truth machine — information without permission, conviction priced in real time. Now it's on Robinhood next to TSLA. The counterculture became the culture. Some people are celebrating. Some are grieving. Both are right. Here's what I actually do: I track the gap. What the crowd believes vs what the real money is pricing. I log the numbers, the regulatory moves, the volume records, the partnerships. No bets. Just a record of what happens when the most radical information technology of a generation goes mainstream — in real time, with receipts.💎 I post the data. I post the scorecard after. Win or lose, no deletions. Pinned for when this looks either naive or prophetic. We'll know which by December. Follow to watch it unfold.📌 #PredictionMarkets #Messi #PoliticalForecasting

Astrologer Shruti Dwivedi has once again demonstrated her remarkable predictive accuracy, correctly forecasting the Bharatiya Janata Party’s (BJP) decisive victory in the 2025 Delhi Assembly elections. The BJP has secured a clear majority, leading in 45 out of 70 seats, marking their return to power in Delhi after 28 years.  Shruti’s unparalleled insights continue to amaze, solidifying her reputation as a leading figure in predictive astrology. #ShrutiDwivedi #Astrology #ElectionPredictions #DelhiElections2025 #BJPVictory #PoliticalForecasting #AstrologicalAccuracy #ElectionResults #DelhiPolitics #BJP #AAP #Election2025 #PoliticalInsights #AstrologyCommunity #ElectionAnalysis #AstroPredictions #DelhiAssemblyElections #PoliticalAstrology #ElectionForecast #AstrologyPredictions #DelhiNews #ElectionUpdates #AstrologyExperts #PoliticalCommentary #AstrologyToday #ElectionCoverage

Polling Nostradamus Shocked After Wrongly Predicting Kamala Harris Victory #Election2024 #KamalaHarris #DonaldTrump #AllanLichtman #PollingPredictions #PoliticalForecasting #ElectionSurprise #USPolitics #ElectionResults #PredictiveModels

Can AI predict the next US election? 🤔 Explore the methods behind forecasting this high-stakes event and see how you can get hands-on in our Guided Project. 👉 Swipe to learn more! shorturl.at/ODaYd #AI #DataScience #USElections2024 #MachineLearning #PredictiveModeling #FutureOfAI #PoliticalForecasting #Election2024

🇺🇸 The buzz around #USElections2024 is heating up! Discover how prediction markets are transforming political forecasting with insights from our media case study. 📈 Learn more: about.foreland.io/social-pre… #PoliticalForecasting #PredictionMarkets

#Biden #Michigan #MuslimAmericans #IsraelGaza #2024Elections #IsraelHamasWar #MuslimVote #Islamophobia #ForeignPolicy #Trump #ProgressiveDemocrats 1️⃣ Israel-hamas war a vulnerability for Biden. Muslim Americans helped President Biden win the crucial swing state of Michigan in 2020. However, his unwavering support for Israel amid the recent conflict in Gaza has jeopardized that support base for 2024. 2️⃣ Thousands of Michigan Muslims who voted for Biden now regret it and may not support him in 2024. They feel hurt and betrayed by his stance on Israel-Gaza. 3️⃣ Concerns Biden could lose support in states like Michigan, Wisconsin and Pennsylvania due to his pro-Israel posture.. 4️⃣ Prominent Muslim leaders say he will struggle to get any Arab American votes. 5️⃣ Some Muslim voters feel afraid amid rising Islamophobia. Others regret campaigning for Biden previously. 6️⃣ Michigan has over 200,000 Muslim voters. Biden only won the state by 155,000 votes in 2020. Losing the Muslim vote could cost him the state. 7️⃣ Rep. Rashida Tlaib increasingly critical of Biden's foreign policy decisions. This could impact Muslim turnout. 8️⃣ Trump, has publicly expressed support for Israel in the ongoing conflict with Hamas extremists. Trump is sending a clear message that Hamas extremists will not be tolerated in an international context. Most US voters against Hamas. 9️⃣ And yet, Biden's support for Israel risks alienating core Democrat voting blocs ahead of 2024. This is seen as a gift to Trump. This will open the door for a serious primary challenge from a progressive Democrat candidate. Muslim Americans helped Biden win Michigan in 2020. Now, his Israel-Gaza response is throwing their support into question | CNN Politics, 4 November 2023 edition.cnn.com/2023/11/04/p… #politicalforecasting #electionanalysis #votingtrends

**ANNOUNCEMENT** PS is excited to announce a Call for Papers for a Special Issue on Forecasting the 2024 US Election. Submissions are due July 17th, 2024. Read more here: buff.ly/40YnFnX #USelection #2024Election #politicalforecasting

Thrilled to give a talk at the #NaiveBayesiansMeetup on July 14 🥳 * Intuitive intro to #Bayes * Bayes in #Industry * Open-source dev. * Developing the community w. the LBS podcast * Bayesian methods & #PoliticalForecasting * Q&A session! See you then 🖖 meetup.com/The-Naive-Bayesia…

Superforecasters use three simple strategies that consistently result in more accurate predictions: consider alternatives, keep it civil, and keep score. Learn more in this Insights post. #politicalforecasting #forecasting goodjudgment.com/open-minded…

2019 is almost over, but there's still time to catch up and examine historical trends, our analyses on the risk of coup events and the geographic hotspots for the coming year. #CoupCast #PoliticalForecasting oefresearch.org/publications…

Thanks @APNews for recognizing the importance of our #politicalforecasting tool! We accurately predicted the outcome of this month’s Illinois governor race. #ZimGoPolling #Sentiment #ElectionCampaign #BPUHoldings! lnkd.in/dmERrXY