Analysis: #Smartphone tracking fell short in preventing the spread of the #COVID19 #pandemic. Here are six inherent “points of failure” in #DigitalContactTracing—and possible lessons learned. In PNAS Journal Club: ow.ly/Lho650QmqPh #ContactTracing #ReproductionNumber

The intricacies of compartmental models (SIR, SEIR) and their role in understanding and predicting disease dynamics: 1/ Understanding disease dynamics is crucial for predicting outbreaks and implementing effective public health measures. Compartmental models like SIR and SEIR are fundamental tools used by epidemiologists for this purpose. Let's delve deeper into how they work. #Epidemiology 2/ The SIR model divides the population into three compartments: Susceptible (S), Infected (I), and Recovered (R). It assumes that everyone in the population belongs to one of these compartments. #SIRmodel #DiseaseDynamics 3/ The SEIR model adds another compartment, Exposed (E), to the SIR model. Individuals in the Exposed compartment have been infected but are not yet infectious. This accounts for the incubation period of the disease. #SEIRmodel #IncubationPeriod 4/ The transition of individuals between compartments is represented by parameters: beta (infection rate), gamma (recovery rate), and in the case of the SEIR model, sigma (rate of progression from exposed to infectious). #Parameters #InfectionRate #RecoveryRate 5/ These parameters are crucial because they determine the dynamics of the disease. For example, 'R0', the basic reproduction number, is calculated as beta/gamma in the SIR model. It represents the average number of people an infected person will infect. But this is a simplification, and actual calculations may vary based on the disease and model specifics. #R0 #ReproductionNumber 6/ The parameters (beta, gamma, sigma) may vary over time and between different populations. More advanced models can incorporate this variability to provide more accurate predictions. 7/ The models can be further refined by adding more compartments, such as a compartment for deceased individuals, or by dividing the population into different age groups or geographical locations. #ModelRefinement #PopulationDynamics 8/ Compartmental models are usually fitted to real-world data to estimate the parameters and make predictions. This involves using statistical methods to find the values of the parameters that best explain the observed data. #ModelFitting #Predictions 9/ It is important to note that these models make several assumptions, such as homogeneous mixing of the population and constant parameters over time. In reality, these assumptions may not hold, and more complex models may be needed. #ModelAssumptions #ComplexModels 10/ There are several R packages available for fitting and analyzing compartmental models. Some popular ones include 'EpiModel', 'epimdr ' and 'deSolve'. #Rpackages #DataAnalysis 11/ Understanding the intricacies of compartmental models is key to interpreting their results and using them to inform public health decisions. Compartmental models like SIR and SEIR can be used to estimate the impact of interventions like social distancing or vaccination. This helps policymakers make informed decisions to control the spread of the disease. #PublicHealth #ModelInterpretation 12/ While SIR and SEIR models are valuable tools for understanding and predicting disease dynamics, they are simplifications of reality. They should be used with caution and in conjunction with other forms of analysis and expert opinion. #epidemiology #publichealth #DataScience

BREAKING COVID-19 News! Study Warns About Higher Reproduction Number of EG.5.1 Compared to XBB.1.16 And Raises Alarm On Humoral Immunity Issues! thailandmedical.news/news/br… #BreakingNews #news #EG51 #SARSCoV2 #COVID19 #reproductionnumber #immunity #USA #America #France #Europe

New study estimates monkeypox incubation, generation times and R0 news-medical.net/news/202209… #Monkeypox #Infectious #Diseases #ReproductionNumber #R0 @CDCgov @EIDjournal @FBK_research

Corrected method for more accurate estimation of SARS-CoV-2 reproduction number news-medical.net/news/202111… @medrxivpreprint @imperialcollege @Cambridge_Uni #SARSCoV2 #COVID19 #coronavirus #covid #reproductionnumber

@PovedaJB @TheDevilOps @excaliburtarsae @apontones1 @murmur2230 @PovedaJB R Reino Unido a petición de Jose Poveda... ¿Porque es tan difícil encontrar datos en otros países? #rcovid #growthrate #covid #Covid19UK #reproductionnumber

New study shows how face masks reduce the effective #ReproductionNumber of #COVID19 👉 ow.ly/m1al50EUsFz @maxplanckpress @UnimedizinM @ChariteBerlin #Medicine

Face masks effectively limit #SarsCoV2 transmission 👉 ow.ly/wx9K50EUsCS @maxplanckpress @UnimedizinM @ChariteBerlin #Medicine #ReproductionNumber

Ep. 3 of Contact Tracers is available now online! channelnewsasia.com/news/vid… ✌🏼❤️ — #cna #cnainsider #singapore #Contact #Tracers #coronavirus #covid #reproductionnumber #MinistryofHealth #lockdown #circuitbreaker #foreignworkers #dorms #masks #conspiracytheories #wuhan

When we start tracing only the direct contacts of person A on the 11th day and inform/test person B but not person C, we let the #COVID19 infection chain grow exponentially, if the #ReproductionNumber is >1. That means we let more infected people roam freely than traced . 🧵4/

Researchers claim SARS-CoV-2 B.1.1.7 variant likely to become globally dominant news-medical.net/news/202101… @medrxivpreprint @UniWarszawski #Coronavirus #ReproductionNumber #Research #Respiratory #SpikeProtein #COVID #SARSCoV2 #B117

Gewoon even wat cijfers #ReproductionNumber "Het reproductiegetal dat zegt hoeveel mensen elke besmette persoon aansteekt, zit nu al weken boven de 1" #persconferentie Kijken we naar België en Zweden dan moet zo’n OMT toch ook wel eens realiseren hoe men dat daar nu zo doet.

COVID-19 - England's lockdown vs. Sweden's herd immunity news-medical.net/news/202008… @medrxivpreprint @UMMC @AHNtoday @michiganstateu #Pandemic #ReproductionNumber #Research #Virus #Coronavirus #COVID19 #England #Sweden #Lockdown

Swiss study shows how critical time is in responding to COVID-19 news-medical.net/news/202007… @unibern @medrxivpreprint #Coronavirus #ICU #Mortality #Pandemic #ReproductionNumber #Research #Respiratory #Virus #CoronavirusDisease #COVID19 #SARSCoV2 #Swiss #Switzerland

Global government COVID-19 interventions - no one-fits-all solution exists news-medical.net/news/202007… @medrxivpreprint @MedUni_Wien @VetmeduniVienna @CSHVienna @SapienzaRoma #Education #Efficacy #Healthcare #Pandemic #ReproductionNumber #R0 #Coronavirus #COVID19 #SARSCoV2

New method with acausal 7-day filter to determine the #ReproductionNumber of infectious diseases ow.ly/cB1A50AdZIg @KITKarlsruhe #ComputerScience #AppliedInformatics #Coronavirus

#Coronavirus: #ReproductionNumber estimated more precisely ow.ly/AzMO50AdZBb @KITKarlsruhe #ComputerScience #AppliedInformatics

For Germany, daily updated values for the #SARSCoV2 reproduction number can be found under the link: secir.theoretical-biology.de #COVID19deutschland #SIRmodel #ReproductionNumber

🔢 The #reproductionnumber R states the average number of people infected by an infected person in scenarios like #COVID19. R is hard to estimate, but our @KITKarlsruhe team has a new method to do so more accurately using a 7-day non-causal filter 🎯 ➡️ helmholtz.ai/themenmenue/new…

In Germany a corona crisis response that addresses the needs of Economy and Health is possible: Our study with the @ifo_Institut shows that maintaining a #ReproductionNumber of 0.75 minimises the economic burden and #CovidDeaths remain at a low level. #BIP #GDP @helmholtz_en