#ボ露介 ザマァw –73,2 % ：ノヴォロシースク港からのロシアの石油輸出が、ウクライナの標的攻撃後、1週間で急落。 同国は2023年以来、これほど低い輸出量を記録していない –16,1 % ：ロシアの海上石油輸出全体が1週間（2026年4月）で減少（understandingwarのCentre for Price Indicesによる）。 - 66,7 % ：プーチンの支持率が急落中 （1ヶ月で–6ポイント）、ロシア国営世論調査による。プロパガンダでさえ、不満を隠せなくなっている。

Ukrainian strikes are forcing Moscow to back down: Russia is mobilising in secret and sacrificing its economy! Russia, which believed itself safe in its hinterland, must now acknowledge the devastating impact of Ukrainian strikes on its territory. As a result, Moscow is launching a covert mobilisation and redeploying its reserves to the rear, to the detriment of the front line. A clear admission of failure. –73.2%: drop in Russian oil exports from the port of Novorossiysk in one week, following targeted Ukrainian strikes. The country has not exported so little since 2023 –16.1%: overall drop in Russian maritime oil exports in one week (April 2026), according to the Centre for Price Indices understandingwar. - 66.7%: Putin’s approval rating in freefall (–6 points in one month), according to Russian state polls. Even the propaganda can no longer hide the discontent. 👉 Leningrad, a “border” region: the local governor has officially acknowledged that his region has become a war zone, following strikes on ports and oil infrastructure. Solution? Forced conscription of reservists (3-year contracts) and the creation of mobile anti-drone units. 👉 Censorship and internet blackouts: to limit Ukrainian satellite-guided strikes, Moscow is deliberately sabotaging connections. The result: thousands of Russians cut off from the internet, with the authorities’ only response being: “And what are you doing to win the war?” 👉 The Russian army running on empty: reserves normally destined for the front line are now tied up at the rear to protect oil pipelines and radar systems. Ukraine is winning without fighting. Ukraine strikes hard and far: - 2,000 km: a record distance for a Ukrainian Sting drone, piloted from abroad to intercept Russian targets. A world first that demonstrates Kyiv’s technological lead. - 16 Russian air defence systems destroyed in 16 days (April 2026), including a Pantsir-S1 in Mariupol. Ukrainian strikes are now targeting radars and ammunition depots, crippling enemy logistics. The trap is closing in; Moscow is cornered! - Either it mobilises openly (risk: popular uprising). - Or it lets its economy and army bleed dry (risk: collapse in the medium term). In either case, Ukraine has already won a strategic battle: forcing Russia to choose between the front and the home front. Pro-Kremlin bloggers, usually so bellicose, are sounding the alarm: “A mobilisation will not save the front.” Proof that even the most loyal are beginning to doubt. Propaganda is on its last legs. Now, Russia is preparing massive strikes (400 drones 20 missiles, 7 times a month) to crush Ukraine under the rubble🤬 But at this rate, it is burying its own people.💥

👊Les frappes ukrainiennes font plier Moscou : la Russie mobilise en catimini et sacrifie son économie ! La Russie, qui se croyait à l’abri dans ses régions profondes, doit désormais admettre l’impact dévastateur des frappes ukrainiennes sur son territoire. Résultat, Moscou lance une mobilisation cachée et redéploie ses réserves vers l’arrière, au détriment du front. Un aveu d’échec en règle. –73,2 % : chute des exportations pétrolières russes depuis le port de Novorossiysk en une semaine, après des frappes ukrainiennes ciblées. Le pays n’a plus exporté aussi peu depuis 2023 –16,1 % : baisse globale des exportations maritimes de pétrole russe en une semaine (avril 2026), selon le Centre for Price Indices understandingwar. - 66,7 % : Taux de popularité de Poutine en chute libre (–6 points en un mois), selon les sondages d’État russes. Même la propagande ne cache plus le mécontentement. 👉 Leningrad, région "frontalière" : le gouverneur local a officiellement reconnu que sa région est devenue une zone de guerre, après des frappes sur les ports et les infrastructures pétrolières. Solution ? Recrutement forcé de réservistes (contrats de 3 ans) et création de groupes mobiles anti-drones . 👉 Censure et internet coupé : pour limiter les frappes ukrainiennes guidées par satellite, Moscou sabote délibérément les connexions. Résultat : des milliers de Russes privés de réseau, avec pour seule réponse des autorités : "Et vous, que faites-vous pour gagner la guerre ?" 👉 L’armée russe à sec : les réserves normalement destinées au front sont désormais clouées à l’arrière pour protéger les oléoducs et les radars. L’Ukraine gagne sans combattre . L’Ukraine frappe fort, et loin : - 2 000 km : distance record pour un drone ukrainien Sting, piloté depuis l’étranger pour intercepter des cibles russes. Une première mondiale qui montre l’avance technologique de Kyiv . - 16 systèmes de défense aérienne russes détruits en 16 jours (avril 2026), dont un Pantsir-S1 à Marioupol. Les frappes ukrainiennes visent désormais les radars et les dépôts de munitions, asphyxiant la logistique ennemie . Le piège se referme, Moscou est coincé ! - Soit elle mobilise ouvertement (risque : révolte populaire). - Soit elle laisse son économie et son armée saigner (risque : effondrement à moyen terme). Dans les deux cas, l’Ukraine a déjà gagné une bataille stratégique : forcer la Russie à choisir entre le front et l’arrière. Les blogueurs pro-Kremlin, d’habitude si va-t-en-guerre, tirent la sonnette d’alarme : "Une mobilisation ne sauvera pas le front." Preuve que même les plus fidèles commencent à douter. La propagande a du plomb dans l’aile . Maintenant, la Russie prépare des frappes massives (400 drones 20 missiles, 7 fois par mois) pour écraser l’Ukraine sous les décombres🤬 Mais à ce rythme, c’est son propre peuple qu’elle enterre.💥 understandingwar.org/researc… dialog.ua/russia/ukrainskie-…

🚨 Reports of ‘many eliminations’ in Zanjan,western Iran Israel & US strike senior commanders,hit key targets According to battlefield reports and open‑source intelligence summaries, Israeli and U.S. forces have conducted extensive strikes inside Iran,targeting senior commanders and leadership across the country including in Zanjan province (sometimes referred to as Zangan in older sources) as part of ongoing operations against Iran’s military and security infrastructure.The operations have reportedly degraded parts of Iran’s internal security apparatus and eliminated a number of high‑value targets in western regions. Source: Critical Threats/UnderstandingWar analyses #IranConflict #Zanjan #OperationUpdates #MiddleEastNews #IranStrike

I've been a fan for a long time. Timely, professional, factual OSINT was what I needed. I have to say friend, you've been going left field a bit over the past year and now I'm at the point where I can no longer see around it. It seems like it may be some kind of political anger. I can't do "America is treacherous" and "our military leadership are psychopaths". I'm also sure you know better than to call construction equipment an invalid target when you have no context. There are many reasons any target type could become not only valid but critical, as you know. I'll always appreciate analyst comments, as long they don't include wild conjecture that fall way outside of reasonable fact. Like "America murdered a *religious leader* and his wife and children." That's a really unfair characterization that I think you wouldn't have made even a few months ago. Whatever is going on with you, I hope it works out. I'm going to understandingwar. org for a few months then I'll check back and see if you're ok. God bless you and yours.

🚨🇮🇷🇮🇱 Day 14. About the same duration as last year's war. With very different numbers. Missiles fired at Israel: 550 then. 260 now. Drones: 1,050 then. 550 now. Americans killed: 32 then. 12 now. Israelis displaced: 15,000 then. 3,400 now. Iran is objectively weaker. The strikes are working. But air raid sirens: 20,000 then. 50,000 now. Iran ran out of military targets to hit. So they started aiming at cities. Fewer weapons. More civilians. The strategy didn't change... the target list did. understandingwar, FDD, @Eyalo365

ANALYSIS Why do nations go to war? Writer: Acharya Prashant Click- dailypioneer.com/news/why-do… #WarAndEgo #Geopolitics #USIranConflict #MiddleEastTensions #HumanNature #EgoAndViolence #ReligiousIdentity #ConflictAnalysis #PsychologyOfWar #InternationalRelations #PowerAndDominance #InnerPeace #SelfReflection #IdentityAndConflict #GlobalPolitics #MissileStrikes #IranIsraelUS #EgoDrivenConflict #PeaceFromWithin #UnderstandingWar #TheatreOfConflict #HistoricalGrievances #EgoAndStatecraft #ConflictPsychology #WarAndHumanity #DiplomacyLimits #InnerDisarmament #EgoVsCompassion #RealPeace #WarAndIdentity

Aż trudno uwierzyć, jak jedna decyzja technologiczna może zmienić bieg historii na naszych oczach… 🤯 🛰️ OFFLINE: Jak wyłączenie Starlinka zmieniło mapę frontu To brzmi jak scenariusz filmu science-fiction, ale wydarzyło się naprawdę! W ciągu zaledwie pięciu dni (11–15 lutego) Ukraina odzyskała aż 201 km² terytorium. To największy taki sukces Kijowa od 2,5 roku! Dynamika wydarzeń jest wręcz niesamowita. Wszystko zaczęło się od… wyciągnięcia wtyczki. 🔌 Ministerstwo Obrony Ukrainy we współpracy ze SpaceX wprowadziło system „białej listy”, definitywnie odcinając rosyjskie wojska od nielegalnie używanych terminali Starlink. Efekt? Totalny paraliż komunikacyjny. 📉 Doradcy wojskowi mówią wprost o „katastrofie” i rozpadzie systemu dowodzenia po drugiej stronie. Nawet rosyjscy blogerzy wojskowi przyznają z rezygnacją: „Stało się to, czego się obawialiśmy. Elon Musk nacisnął przełącznik”. Wykorzystując ten chaos i „oślepienie” przeciwnika, ukraińska armia ruszyła z błyskawiczną kontrą w kierunku Zaporoża. W niektórych miejscach udało się odepchnąć linię frontu o prawie 10 kilometrów, wyzwalając kolejne miejscowości! 🚀 Druga strona próbuje teraz wszystkiego – od powrotu do starego radia po… rozwijanie kabli światłowodowych w polu. Ale eksperci są zgodni: tysięcy satelitów nie da się zastąpić z dnia na dzień. A wszystko to dzieje się tuż przed kluczowymi negocjacjami w Genewie… @sikorskiradek @elonmusk @ZelenskyyUa #Ukraina #Starlink #Technologia #Geopolityka #news @DefenceU Hard to believe how a single tech decision can shift the course of history right before our eyes… 🤯 🛰️ OFFLINE: How Cutting Starlink Redrew the Frontline Map It sounds like a sci-fi script, but it’s real! In just five days (Feb 11–15), Ukraine reclaimed a massive 201 km² of territory. That’s Kyiv’s biggest gain in 2.5 years! The momentum is absolutely incredible. It all started with… pulling the plug. 🔌 Ukraine’s Ministry of Defense, in coordination with SpaceX, implemented a "whitelist" system, definitively cutting Russian troops off from their illicitly used Starlink terminals. The result? Total comms paralysis. 📉 Military advisors are calling it a "catastrophe" with a complete command breakdown on the other side. Even Russian milbloggers are admitting defeat: "What we feared has happened. Elon Musk flipped the switch." Seizing on this chaos and the enemy's sudden "blindness," the Ukrainian army launched a lightning counterattack toward Zaporizhzhia. In some sectors, they’ve pushed the front line back nearly 10 km, liberating multiple settlements! 🚀 The other side is scrambling—trying everything from reverting to old radios to... actually laying fiber optic cables across battlefields. But experts agree: you can’t replace thousands of satellites overnight. All this, right before the critical negotiations in Geneva… #Ukraine #Starlink #Tech #Geopolitics #BreakingNews understandingwar org

Not accurate and implies that that British people are protesting against genuine vulnerable people. They are not - they are protesting against the systems costs and vulnerabilities to abuse by gangs and potential state level threat actors bypassing border controls. (Realised) The worrying rise of culture clashes that occur when people are thrust upon a community. (Realised) Bear in mind that news articles published during the 2010’s clearly and explicitly said said groups like ISIS would flood the shores of Europe with combatants. (Lived experience) The asylum system isn’t just leveraged upon by gangs and criminal networks it is mixed in with an externally influenced climate agenda where psychological methods are used to accelerate change by bringing focus on issues “closer to home” a collaborative publication involving the Migration Policy Group (MPI) , Robert Bosch Stiftung, and the Behavioural insights Team titled; “APPLYING BEHAVIOURAL INSIGHTS TO SUPPORT IMMIGRANT INTEGRATION AND SOCIAL COHESION” The Behavioural Insights Team (BIT) - “The Nudge Team” In relation to the Climate Change agenda. The IPCC -AR6 report that also influences decision makers to consider utilising in policy psychological “behavioural Intervention” I suggest you also look into the USSR programme called “Intensification 90” the use of mass data and economic sciences to tell the public what they need as they don’t know what they want. However in light of the government operating in secrecy and its poor performance on effectively keying in to public issues. (YouPoll - Low approval rating, YouPoll people feel less heard) UNCTAD - Trade Report 2025 global policy uncertainty record highs. You should strive to educate yourself on issues and do not intimidate or use violence. These issues could be hijacked as part of an asymmetric economic attack in tandem with attacks on supply chains and energy. Supply chain stress index (World Bank Data) as high as when the world was shut down. Global Institute of Peace annual reports 2024 and 2025 - 40% deterioration in international domestic peace indicators. Houthi - Proxy attacks on global shipping and thus - energy supply chains. Wider Economic issues indicate these asymmetric attacks were retaliation to aggressive responses to: Nord Stream pipeline - is still a relevant global pressure point now assets are held by Harbour Energy. The ongoing tensions in the Donbas are trivialised but key drivers glossed over were energy transport fees, pipeline control, coal/coke export/resources. Resources: (Links separated so don’t get a spam marker on this post) 1. ISW (US maps) – “understandingwar .org” 2. DeepState (Ukrainian live map) – deepstatemap .live 3. Meduza (Russian opposition) – meduza .io/en Institute for the study of war (Understanding War), Ukraine Coal, Ports, Pipelines - Serhiy Kudelia (2023, Current History) Questions on Propaganda to justify conflict - Lev Gudkov (Levada Center, 2022–24 panel studies) “Zelenskyy’s ‘Crimea Platform’ 12,000 troops on the line of contact Javelin deliveries = Moscow had 48 hours to pre-empt.” Samuel Charap & Timothy Colton (RAND, 2024) So YES humanitarian support for genuine refugees and asylum seekers should be free from resistance. NO - it should not be free from public scrutiny as a reactionary response to a perceived threat by a way a layperson whom usually lives to - provide and protect their ‘interests’ in their locality by virtue of paying taxes and incurring charges. Reactionary responses to immediate threats in some areas in tandem with a realised clear rise in criminal precedents - not relative to the local customs expected learned through their “lived experience” making those locals relative “experts” on their community and finally; it is inflammatory to disregard concerns from locals when we are in a “Proxy-War” time environment and gaps exist in our understanding on contemporary wars/conflict.

🇱🇧 HEZBOLLAH DISARMAMENT: A HIGH-STAKES GAMBIT FOR MIDDLE EAST STABILITY The Hezbollah disarmament proposal, brokered by U.S. Special Envoy Thomas Barrack, represents a historic attempt to realign regional power dynamics. This proposal urges something that has never be done: for Hezbollah to voluntarily relinquish their arms to the Lebanese Armed Forces (LAF) by year's end, which echoes the UN Resolution 1701, which is the 2006 Security Council measure that ended the Israel-Hezbollah war by calling for militia dissolution south of the Litani River and full LAF deployment. This would pave the way for true sovereignty for Lebanon and enables reciprocal Israeli troop withdrawals from southern Lebanon, all which will unlock Gulf funding for infrastructure reconstruction since this precious country has gone through economic collapse. However, Hezbollah’s deputy chief Naim Qassem warned of civil war, potentially reigniting conflicts in the fragile post-Nasrallah ceasefire era. And U.S. and French mediation, while crucial, may actually be perceived as external imposition and stoke domestic divisions in this fragile state. To mitigate, Lebanon will require robust international guarantees: enhanced peacekeeping mandates for monitoring, LAF modernization through Western training and aid, and diplomatic buffers via Arab allies to counter Iran. Success is going to depend on phased talks that address sectarian grievances, transforming disarmament from a flashpoint into a foundation for enduring regional peace and Lebanese prosperity. The fragility of the moment cannot be overstated enough, but the hope of Lebanon’s tomorrow shines a bit brighter because of a collective hope. Source: ArabicCenterDC, Al Jazeera, UnderstandingWar. org, Reuters, Arab News

🔥 Ukraine Resists: Strong Support from the West! Ukraine, with Western support, has halted Russia’s advance. 🔖 #Ukraine #Russia #Defense #GeoDefenceTR 📣 @understandingwar @NATO

🔥 Ukrayna Direniyor: Batı’dan Güçlü Destek! Ukrayna, Batı’nın desteğiyle Rusya’nın ilerleyişini durdurdu. 🔖 #Ukrayna #Rusya #Savunma #GeoDefenceTR 📣 @understandingwar @NATO

Turkey’s restraint was driven by these strategic realities, not a single negotiation request. This has been covered by both Al Jazeera and understandingwar. Stop listening to propaganda on twitter 😭

Appreciate your thoughts here. Your intuition is likely reasonable. My two favorite foreign affairs sources are understandingwar and warontherocks .... worth checking out if you are into this stuff.

BTC Daily Intelligence Bulletin (DIB) Block: 855,897 DTG/ICOD: 1200Z 08Aug24 Precedence: Routine (RR) Controls: Public Release QQQQ __________________________ BLUF: Ukraine Forces Advance Into Russian Territory / IDF Abuse at Detention Camp Draws Ire / Iran Issues NOTAMs / Debby Hits Landfall Again / Judge Rules in SEC-Ripple XRP Case / New Org, USABTC Promotes Gov. Centralization of Bitcoin / mBridge CBDC Starts MVPs / El Salvador Negotiates With IMF / CISA, FBI Warn of Election DDoS Attacks Market Data: Price: 1 BTC= $57,302, 23.73 oz Gold, .13 Median US House 24hr Hi: $57,652 / Lo: $54,620 Vol: $39B (Down 13%) Mkt Cap: $1.13T (Up 1%) HashRate: 613 EH/s Avg Fee Rate: 5 sats/vBtye (Even) Nodes: 19,732 ---Reports--- -International Events- 1. Ukrainian forces have made confirmed advances up to 10 kilometers into Russia's Kursk Oblast amid continued mechanized offensive operations on Russian territory on August 7: The Kremlin's response has so far been contradictory, as Russian officials are attempting to balance presenting the effort as a notable Ukrainian escalation with avoiding overstating its potential implications and risking domestic discontent. Ukrainian forces reportedly used a first-person view (FPV) drone to down a Russian Mi-28 helicopter over Kursk Oblast, indicating that Ukrainian forces continue to successfully adapt their drone capabilities. (UnderstandingWar) (AC-The push by Ukraine is large and apparently unexpected. Since Kursk Oblast is technically Russian territory, the incursion marks a significant turn of events in the war.) 2. State Dept calls for Israel to investigate allegations of ‘horrific’ sexual abuse of Palestinian detainees: The statement comes after Israeli media obtained leaked surveillance video that allegedly showed Israeli soldiers sexually assaulting a Palestinian detainee at Sde Teiman base in Israel’s Negev desert. (CNN) 3. Iran warns airlines to avoid its airspace for 3 hours on Thursday over military drills, Egypt says: The warning comes amid soaring tensions in the region following last week’s assassination of Hamas’ leader in Tehran. The Egyptian ministry said the warning came in a notice sent by Iran to all commercial airlines. The ministry said the ban from Iranian airspace was to last for three hours, 4:30 a.m. to 7:30 a.m. on Thursday. (AP) -US Events- 1. Tropical Storm Debby makes second landfall in South Carolina, heavy rain expected up the East Coast: The National Hurricane Center says Debby came ashore early Thursday near Bulls Bay, South Carolina. The storm is expected to keep moving inland, spreading heavy rain and possible flooding all the way up through the mid-Atlantic and the Northeast by the weekend. (AP) #bitcoin #Kurska #iran #news #Debby

It's not clear to me whether the takes at understandingwar are intended to be dispassionate analysis or to contribute to "information warfare", and I sense it is an uncomfortable mix of both.

Non dimentichiamo però che oltre a #israele c'è anche l'#Ucraina dove la #guerra, con sviluppi territoriali minimi continua e continuerà per i prossimi anni. Mappa della situazione al 15 ottobre #understandingwar #UkraineWar #geopolitica #UkraineRussiaWar

The test reportedly prevented Russians from accessing common Western services including Google and Wikipedia while retaining access to Russian sites. 2/2 (understandingwar)

Если бы на линии канал была подписана репрезентативная выборка вы были бы правы. Но вот у меня такого канала нет ни одного, я читаю understandingwar

Which bank of a river is the "right bank"? Which is "left bank"? Usual convention (used by @UnderstandingWar) is to face downstream as reference. For Dnipro R., "left" from downriver is southeast bank, "right" is northwest bank. See also Paris, "Rive Gauche".