Another stealth USA crude oil production cut by way of merger:
In 3Q25 $VTLE was producing 60.2Kb/d of crude & $CRGY 103Kb/d (~163Kb/d combined). 1Q26 (first full combined Q) they produced 140Kb/d. Oops!
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This kind of pressure on allies could accelerate a broader rearmament cycle in Europe, lifting not just primes like $LMT and $RTX but also smaller, niche defense and component plays like $KTOS (drones/unmanned systems) and $AVAV, while sustained Hormuz tension keeps the bid under crude—adding torque to small-cap E&Ps like $REI and $VTLE that are highly sensitive to elevated oil prices.
It’s a good short candidate for a market neutral book in this environment given the inherited $VTLE hedge book limiting upside
I bet those hedge $ losses at current prices are in the hundreds of $mm
$CIVI
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Civitas Resources printed a bearish engulfing candle yesterday right at descending resistance, reinforcing the idea that price is still consolidating within a broader descending triangle.
From a candlestick and psychology standpoint, that engulfing candle shows sellers defending the downtrend line and pushing back against any upside attempts.
We closed right at the 50 EMA, which is a key short-term battleground here, and bulls want to see price hold that level and avoid downside follow-through today, as a break lower would confirm a bearish pivot reversal at resistance.
Until proven otherwise, this remains a market defined by lower highs pressing into flat support, a classic compression setup with poor risk-reward for new positions.
A clean break and close above descending resistance is needed to shift momentum back to the bulls; until then, consolidation and patience remain the play.
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$EOG$DVN$APA$FANG$MRO$HES$OXY$PDCE$NOG$CHRD$PR$VTLE
Not a geologist, but had my rocks for jocks course. Yeah, they're down, there, Woodford, some others.
Hamm has tested, SM has tested, VTLE (now CRGY) has.
haha I forgot to include $ACDC. i'm intentionally spreading around the exposure as I prefer to be broadly diversified in the space. gun to head: the $CRGY chart looks promising and big acquisition of $VTLE