Followers — quick update with my AI weather discussion tool below. Enjoy -
This week’s storm — yes, there’s rain… but let’s be real about it. You can already see it in the forecast image below from the Euro Ens AI, there is a window for some light precip into
#SoCal.
But again… context matters.
→ Scattered showers, nothing organized
→ No real moisture tap
→ No sustained forcing
So yeah — some areas will see light rain, maybe a quick burst here and there…but under .25" from what I am seeing south of Pt. conception. However, this is nowhere near a meaningful, season-saving event.
This is nuisance-level precip for most of Southern California.
Now let’s talk about WHY — Rossby waves & pattern interference. This is where it actually gets interesting.
This weekend’s system and every system this winter out west, has been getting completely disrupted by the larger-scale pattern, and it comes back to Rossby wave behavior. Some Omega blocks and meridional flow, as I have discussed over and over again this winter, it is the culprit. This is due to the SSW and PV, constantly stretching and reloading back east. Look at this temps and their weather currently in NY. Cold folk!
What we needed:
→ A clean, amplified Rossby wave digging into the West Coast
→ Strong downstream support
→ A consolidated trough with depth and duration
What we got instead:
→ A fragmented / flattened Rossby wave train
→ Energy getting stretched and sheared east
→ Weak undercut of the ridge instead of a full breakdown
And this ties back to the bigger season-long issue:
→ The polar vortex has been displaced and elongated eastward
→ Residual impacts from earlier stratospheric warming (SSW) disrupted the flow
→ That interference has kept the West Coast from locking into a sustained trough pattern
Translation (non-weather speak):
Every time a storm tries to organize and dig into California…
→ It loses structure
→ It loses support
→ It falls apart as it moves in
That’s exactly what’s happening this week.
Mountains — quick hit (because this matters too)
Yes — this system will bring:
→ Snow above ~9,000 ft
→ Maybe up to ~1 foot in the highest elevations
Check out
@TahoeWeather for the full report of what snow the resorts that are still opened, might get in
#california. Folks, it is bleak. Again, winter has been over for weeks, as most of the resorts west of the divide, are either closed or hanging on for dear life.
That might help preserve some upper mountain terrain briefly.
But again…
→ Lower elevations? Not much help
→ And right after? Warmth returns melt resumes
And speaking of that…
Right behind this system:
→ Heights rebound
→ Ridge builds back in
→ Temps spike again
So whatever rain/snow we get?
Short-lived.
Resorts — same story, just getting worse
And this is where reality hits.
I was supposed to be at Deer Valley Resort right now…
…but they’ve already closed.
And they won’t be the last.
→ Palisades Tahoe — lower mountain done
→ Alpine Meadows — closed
→ Mammoth Mountain — hanging on up top
→ Park City Mountain Resort — likely next
- Beaver Creek closed yesterday.
Everyone is trying to make it to Easter…
Not everyone will.
Bottom line
→ This weekend’s system = weakened by Rossby wave interference
→ Rain into
#SoCal = light, scattered, limited impact
→ Sierra snow = mostly above 9,000 ft, short-lived benefit
→ Ridge returns quickly → warming resumes
→ Pattern still favors weak troughs dominant ridging
→ Winter out west? Pretty much done outside of the highest elevations
Same message, just more confirmation.
The pattern hasn’t changed — just the timing.
So there ya go. There is my weather AI discussion. Folks, as you know I have transitioned to golf, hiking and train riding. Some places, per the models below, will be back to summer in
#california next week.
Wish I had better news......More later....
P.S. - I will have an update on the palisades mountains and pictures later this week. Amazing how the landscape has changed from the fires.
#California #SoCalWeather #WestCoastWeather #Meteorology #RossbyWaves #PolarVortex #SSW #WeatherPatterns #SierraNevada #Snowpack #SpringWeather #ClimatePatterns #ENSO #ElNino #SkiSeason #MountainLife #ForecastDiscussion #socal #cawx