🌩️ Severe Weather Outlook for Today 🌪️
There are two primary areas to watch for severe weather today across the Midwest and southern Plains.
1️⃣ Primary Area: Southern Illinois • SE Missouri • SW Indiana • NW Kentucky (near the warm front)
This area has the best combination of ingredients for organized severe storms. Strong 925–700 mb winds, increasing 0–3 km CAPE, and enhanced low-level helicity along the warm front will support rotating storms. With dewpoints near 60°F and southeast surface winds feeding moisture into the boundary, the environment will be favorable for multicells and supercells capable of all hazards.
⚠️ Main threats:
🌪️ Tornadoes
🧊 Large hail
💨 Damaging winds
Storms that interact directly with the warm front could become particularly intense, as low-level shear and storm-relative helicity will be maximized there.
2️⃣ Secondary Area: NW Arkansas • ESE Oklahoma
This region will also need monitoring. Strong daytime heating and good instability (CAPE) are expected, along with ample moisture. However, the strongest wind shear may remain slightly north of the area or tied closer to the warm front, and 925–700 mb winds appear weaker compared to the Midwest target.
Another uncertainty is how far south the front pushes, which will determine how favorable the shear profile becomes. If storms can form in the right environment, supercells capable of all hazards are still possible, but confidence is a bit lower than the northern target.
📡 Bottom line: Two potential severe weather zones today with supercells possible in both regions. The warm front across southern IL/SE MO appears to be the higher-end setup, especially for tornado potential.
🎥 Stay tuned for updates — I’ll be out chasing and streaming live today!
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