The government is likely to place RLNG-fired power plants with a cumulative capacity of over 3,600 MW on preservation mode due to severe difficulties in securing RLNG at economically viable rates following Qatar's force majeure declaration. Pakistan's power sector currently requires approximately 350 MMCFD of RLNG, but only 80 MMCFD is being allocated by Sui Northern Gas Pipelines Limited, with no new cargoes expected in the near term. The three major high-efficiency RLNG-based combined-cycle power plants—Bhikki (1,180 MW), Haveli Bahadur Shah (1,230 MW), and Balloki (1,223 MW)—may face operational curtailment. Spot market RLNG prices hover around USD 25 per MMBTU, making procurement economically unfeasible given the gas sector's circular debt has already reached approximately Rs 3 trillion.The government is managing current supply by curtailing local gas fields while rationing available RLNG cargoes.
For PSX investors, potential RLNG plant preservation poses significant risks to power sector profitability and electricity supply stability. Energy-dependent industrial companies face production disruptions and potential load shedding. Power generation companies relying on RLNG-based plants will see reduced revenues and utilization rates. Rising electricity costs through the Fuel Charges Adjustment mechanism could further pressure consumer-facing companies. However, investors should monitor government decisions closely, as spot market purchases remain possible in extreme shortage scenarios, creating both financial and operational uncertainties across the broader economy.
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