Blind monkey looking for a buck. Back-testing confirms I’m half right half of the time.
Joined April 2022
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Jefferies desk comments $INTC article:
"Stock up 11% overnight helped by another ve headline, with The Info reporting that $GOOGL and NVDA are considering $INTC as a backup chip manufacturer – hearing frustration by some investors as this in fact not news at all – and the headline itself is a bit misleading, as the actual article is referring to GOOGL placing an order for 3mn TPU’s for INTC’s EMIB-T advanced packaging only (not foundry), while NVDA (and also Hynix) are only still evaluating INTC for advanced packaging and 18A.
The Information seems to be getting things quite wrong re $INTC. JPM comment below sums it up. Here's Citi desk comment too
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UBS has a long report out: "Token Costs – What Customers are Saying"
Companies are definitely feeling the higher bills, but the takeaway is that nobody’s actually slowing down AI use. They’re mostly just putting some guardrails in place and trimming spend in other areas while they keep rolling it out.
In conclusion, UBS saying Google Cloud and AWS could end up with a cost edge here because of their own chips and models. That might help them take some share from Microsoft and the others over time.
$GOOGL $AMZN $MSFT $ORCL
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Wolfe raising ests for $GOOGL and $AMZN, well above street
$GOOGL $AMZN Deep Dive: Future of Hyperscalers - Raising Rev, CapEx, & EPS Ests. All Eyes On '28
We're raising ’26/'27 GCP Rev. growth to 81%/48% (11%/8% above Street) & '27 $GOOGL CapEx to $300B (26% above Street), & add 15GW in '28.
We're raising our ’26/'27 AWS Rev. growth to 37%/44% (6%/19% above Street) & '27 $AMZN CapEx to $280B (27% above Street), & add 6GW in ’28.
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The Information seems to be getting things quite wrong re $INTC. JPM comment below sums it up. Here's Citi desk comment too
Jun 9
JPM pours cold water on the "Intel deal":
On this The Information article “TSMC’s capacity struggles are turning into a boon for Intel,” seems like a storm in a teacup/nothing clearly new… The reporter argues that “Several major AI chip design companies” including GOOGL & NVDA are looking to INTC as a “backup manufacturer” for “their most advanced processors.” That may be true, but they don’t actually seem to provide anything concrete other than multi-project wafer runs which I think were widely assumed to be ongoing. The article discusses a GOOGL order for 3m TPUs in 2028. Actually these chips are still being fabbed at TSMC (N2 for compute, N3 for io die), and the INTC piece is only EMIB-T advanced packaging; this is already in our models... The article also suggests the NVDA is testing INTC capabilities for Feynman (but again this sounds like interconnect, not wafer fab… though they specifically also talk about NVDA “running early trials” 18A wafer fab). There’s also discussion of SK Hynix sampling INTC packaging. All packaging
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$GLW moving on this
aboutamazon.com/news/company…
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Jun 8
Bluefin has a rather interesting nugget on $SMCI today hidden on the second page.
Looks like Elon is so rack-hungry he doesn't mind some hairdryers consuming power too that in addition to 80 racks they awarded to SMCI, they've added 1500.
Incremental $5.2B positive.
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Both MSCO and JPM raising $ASML EUV ests today, '28 EUV units now at 104 and 105, respectively. Super bullish notes, upping ests and PTs, too. MSCO PT to €1,660 and JPM to €1,900 ($2,200)
JPM: "The Street is Behind the Curve: ‘27/’28 Numbers Need a Rewrite"
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Sign of times $IBM
Jun 1
IBM shares jump as much as 15% in premarket trading after a video of President Donald Trump praising the company’s CEO and discussing the stock at a December event recirculated on social media over the weekend: BBG
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Seaport analyst also not impressed with $NVDA keynote
"Nothing to write home about"
Summary: Nvidia had little new to offer at its Computex keynote. The headline event was the launch of their PC CPU line, but more noteworthy was their effort that future AI data centers would cost $80 billion per GW to build. As much as the company is executing at a solid pace, we see little to change their current trajectory.
Jun 1
F TIER KEYNOTEMAX: Jensen ComputeX presentation was one of the worst keynotes he has done. He announced nothing new on the AI datacenter side, and he only announced Windows on NVIDIA ARM CPU which the transition will not go work unlike Apple transition from x86 to M1 ARM.
The NVIDIA laptop chip is already delayed by 6 to 8 months from its original expected launch window. During development, the high-speed connection between the Nvidia and MediaTek parts caused so much interference that the video output was completely broken,
Laptop makers are reportedly being told definitely not let anyone turn them on or run benchmarks. That screams "immature hardware."
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Hard to believe but some analysts are even raising a few concerns re $MU, while overall positive of course on the general developments in the sector. Raising $MU pt to $1100.
From Raymond James:
"We reiterate our Outperform rating on Micron and raise our price target to $1100 ahead of earnings later this month. Not surprisingly, in our recent travels, $MU has been among the most popular topics. While the share price and multiple continue to reach new highs, we note limited pushback among the investor base; there’s a general understanding that it really is “different this time.” Not only have all suppliers been more rational in capacity additions, the industry also has never seen a similar demand environment, with a significant (understatement of the year) investment being made by multiple customers at the same time."
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