When the MAGAs finally figure out what it was they really voted for:

Bluesky is a good alternative app

Equatorial Pacific SST anomalies, both monthly and weekly, more closely resemble a La Nina Modoki than a canonical La Nina.

March 2024 was the moistest March on record for the planet 📈 A warmer world is a moister world: this is evidenced by a weather variable called "total column water" or "precipitable water", the total moisture amount in a column of air, from the ground all the way up to the top of the atmosphere. We track global monthly temperature rankings in near real-time, so why not atmospheric moisture too? To help bridge this gap, I make available a global moisture anomaly map and ranking chart, updated once a month around the 7th on this page: bennollweather.com/weather-g… You are welcome to download the high resolution imagery and/or embed the graphics on a webpage.

Consolidated SST forecasts favoring a return of #LaNina late in 2024. SPO & SPMM in the process of flipping to negative & the current strong IOD would support a La Nina return. Also watch the subtropical IOD as some modeling suggests a -SIOD developing during austral summer.

Yes, but, as with any index, the Dipole Mode Index (DMI) doesn't capture the whole picture. Compare the SST patterns, ocean temps around Aust. are much warmer than 2019. I wouldn't necessarily expect the same rainfall impacts.

No real signs of the negative PDO dissipating as El Niño strengthens. In 1972 - the only reasonable analog to date - the negative PDO quickly shifted to neutral in July/August as the N Pacific circulation responded to El Niño. But the models claim this won't happen in 2023.

SSTs across the equatorial #Pacific continue to trend toward #ElNino. The latest ACCESS-S2 outlooks from the Australia BOM appear overdone on intensity, but El Nino & a IOD likely develops during boreal summer/austral winter.

Conflicting signals between the MJO in phases 4/5 & AAO turning positive for rainfall in E #Australia during early May. MJO could lead to more favorable conditions for low development in the S IO or Bay of Bengal heading into the second week of May.

Absolutely great group to work with, please share around: Research Fellow in Climate Variability jobs.unimelb.edu.au/en/job/9…

Australia BOM has declared that we are back in #LaNina by their criteria of -0.8C versus NOAA's -0.5C criteria. Thus by NOAA & the #Australia BOM we are in only the third triple La Nina since records began in 1950. I warned of this possibility back in early April.

New paper by cotton industry climate analyst @jonwelsh3 and @AndreaTaschetto looking at climate variability and yield related inputs - relevant info for cotton industry adaptation 😃🌡️💧doi.org/10.1016/j.eja.2022.1… #ClimateExtremes #Science #Cotton

Looking at the relationship between climate drivers and cotton yield in Australia, in collaboration with @jonwelsh3 @ccrc_unsw @ClimateExtremes @nespclimate authors.elsevier.com/c/1fbCZ…

In addition to a -IOD this boreal autumn, the forecast demise of the current - South #Pacific Oscillation (SPO) & - South Pacific Meridional Mode (SPMM) in 2023 all favor the return of #ElNino late in 2023.

Latest APEC multi-model ensemble showing moderate to strong -IOD. Weak #LaNina likely carries to end of year healthy trades in C & W equatorial #Pacific later in 2022; these trades fade in boreal winter of 2022/23. Teleconnections pointing toward possible #ElNino 2023/24 winter.

it's one week until our live webinar for the agricultural industry with @jasonpeterevans, Dr Yawen Shao, cotton industry expert @jonwelsh3 and host @Constababble Thurs 10am on our facebook and youtube 💧☀️🌾🐄 @ClimateKelpie @CottonInfoAust @farmingforever #ClimateExtremes

Latest weekly Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD) index value is -0.69°C which is below the -IOD threshold of -0.4°C & lower than previous weeks, indicative of an emerging -IOD. West anomalies in equatorial IO should result in a moderate to strong -IOD from late boreal summer into autumn.

The West #Pacific basin will likely remain free of tropical development through the end of June. Back to 1970, only the 1998 & 2010 seasons had no development during June. Both years featured #LaNina conditions & development of a -IOD.

Persisting -SPO & -SPMM can result in a rare triple #LaNina into 2023. Since 1950, the only other two triple La Ninas were from 1973-1976 and 1998-2001. Moderate to strong -IOD late in 2022 could mean a reverse to #ElNino for boreal winter of 2023/2024.

CottonInfo Moisture Manager - wet phase of the Indian Ocean builds for 2022 winter crop. Plus, seasonal model summary and tune into the latest on ACCESS-S model changeover courtesy @ClimateKelpie #agchatoz - mailchi.mp/crdc/cottoninfo-m…