Profits High Employment High Buybacks High Deferrals High Debt Service Low Spreads Low Taxes Low Valuations High HH Stock Allocation High(est) US Stock Weight High(est) 2025 seems like its going to be a fun year, but sometime this Presidential term it will all roll over

rolling my calls down

MAX TINA

nah, the problem is stocks are so overowned

Bernanke's theories must go!

no brainer 100x at a minimum

$SPCX should hostile $GOOG all stock, of course sue to make Larry and Sergey do the right thing for the proles and sell out to him

on to the next crisis that puts Trump in the center of attention

fun fact... the $QQQ has a realized volatility of 39% over the last 10 days and the index is nearly flat, 0.2%. Since 2015, there are only 4 other times when realized vol is between 35 and 45 and the index return is within /-0.2%. "violently unchanged" as they say...

lolwhat?

the only thing I can come up with is social media dooming

He gets it

how is consumer sentiment lower than GFC? this makes no sense

so much winning

🧵 charts: CAPE and traditional P/E measures Using a method that accounts for differences in dividend payout ratios, I have the current S&P 500 CAPE (end of May 2026) at 42.3 versus a March 2000 value of 45.6. Many will immediately dismiss this result as invalid because CAPE is a distorted measure. Yes it is, like all valuation measures, a point that was particularly relevant roughly 10-15 years ago. But the problems with CAPE back then were mostly tied to the fact that there were two huge writedown-heavy recessions in the trailing 10-yr EPS window that were depressing denominator of the measure. Also, there had been a lot of recent earnings growth, which pushes up on the CAPE mathematically (assuming ttm P/E is held constant). But if you're making a comparison between today and March 2000, you don't have to worry about those distortions. They don't apply. Yes, there's recently been a lot of earnings growth, but that was equally the case back then, so any related distortions drop out. And if you look back 10 years from March 2000, there was only a small, brief recession in the trailing window, with minimal distortive impact--much like today. The truth is, if you want to claim that this market is approaching or exceeding Tech Bubble excesses, CAPE is one of the WORST measures you could be citing. Simple ttm measures of P/E are all showing the current S&P 500 value closer to the March 2000 value than CAPE! (See the chart below, where a value of 1.00 equals the March 2000 value for each measure. The red line, CAPE, is currently the lowest of them all, showing the biggest discount relative to the 2000 valuation peak, albeit only a small one.) Additional measures in subsequent tweets.

You have to love this… $SPCX The “facts on $SPAX” The 2x daily ETF is coming tomorrow. Thank goodness, how would we have managed risk or generated return safely without it? Below, the table from the prospectus that you always want to look at in one of these products. It maps returns in the underlying versus modeled returns in the lev product based on a vol assumption. Geometric returns and “vol drag” mean that higher volatility in the underlying will cause the leveraged product to do worse than 2x the return of the underlying. It’s a consequence of the trading strategy getting long the underlying when it rises to an extent that no one conceivably would. The problem is that no one reads this table or really understands it. The table includes a 10% vol assumption in the table for your convenience. Wow. There aren’t many 10 vol assets in the world. The SPX is more like a 15 vol. But SPCX might be one? It would mean it was moving around 60bps a day. 25 vol? Still not even close. 50 vol? That’s 3% daily move. Closer, perhaps, over the course of a year, but I still buy that. 50 vol is where an honest table would start. And a 150 vol should be added as well. The results at 150 are shockingly bad. See the second pic below. Lastly, how does the third table look? Eliminates the ridiculous 10 and 25 vol assumptions. Please know what you are buying.

What am I going to do w now with all my free time, not monitoring the situation? 🌊🛢️

man you guys suffer from recency bias

Who was the worst?

Happy Birthday, Mr. President

still too high