The North Atlantic cold blob is expanding while El Niño is simultaneously getting deeper, hotter, and bigger.
Latest evidence confirms a huge expansion of the cold blob , exactly the signal of accelerating AMOC weakening.
This is the “embolism” I’ve been talking about: the warm current that keeps the northern hemisphere mild is being blocked by a growing cold blob. Gulf heat is being forced to divert elsewhere.
Rahmstorf’s brand-new 2026 paper just confirmed it with observations: the cold blob’s multidecadal cooling is driven by reduced ocean heat transport (AMOC slowdown), not surface fluxes. Full-depth heat content is declining.
But even this strong paper — and the broader science , is still too conservative.
Why do I say that ? Models average freshwater melt evenly instead of the real high-velocity point-source plumes from Greenland’s fjords. They miss ice-sheet basal thresholds that can suddenly accelerate discharge. They don’t capture the full industrial-biology loop: open-loop scrubbers deoxygenation phytoplankton shifts → then clearer water then deeper solar heat penetration then faster melt then more freshwater then further AMOC slowdown (plus lost DMS for clouds and potential N₂O hotspots).
The system is nonlinear and coupled. The tipping point risk is a lot closer than everyone thinks , possibly right now.
I’ve been yelling that our prediction science and risk standards are wrong for a threshold-driven system.
Models are maps, not the territory. The territory already has sharper edges and the territory , the actual climate that is unfolding right now looks significantly different to the current science models
The problem we have is the science models through conditioned model orthodoxy doesn’t measure the actual risk . The IPCC models dumb the coupled tipping data down
Full essay with every mechanism explained (point-source hosing, ice thresholds, phytoplankton/scrubber loops, aerosols, albedo, polar motion, better evidence standard):
x.com/ctindale/status/205260…
The embolism is growing in front of our eyes. Thoughts?