Yesterday afternoon the yield on the UK's 30-year gilt closed at 5.8%. Higher than it reached during the Truss minibudget panic of September 2022, when the same number on the same instrument forced a sitting Prime Minister out of office in 49 days.
The number was treated then, by most of the people now in Cabinet, as proof that the Tories had elevated fools to the heights of the cabinet. Which, as it happened, they had. The same number now, under their own watch, is being treated as a passing weather event.
Perhaps this is an artifact of the fact that the Metropolitan press has typically given Labour a much easier time of things that it rightfully gave the Tories hell for. Perhaps it's a factor of the feeling that things are so much worse in every sphere of our public life that 2022's stand-out moment of crisis simply feels like a twig tapping on a window in the storm in 2026. Perhaps it's something else entirely.
Either way, Liz Truss at least had the courtesy to be honest about the new tax cuts and the new borrowing she was proposing to fund them with.
The Starmcabinet has done it in slow stages and while saying nothing about what they're doing.
The Sentencing Act, the welfare expansion, the National Insurance raid, the Procurement Reset that has handed billions to the same consultancies the Conservatives were paying to be fucking useless, all wrapped in language so emollient it would render languid a fox in a hen-house.
But the market will not be fooled, and it has, as the time has gone by, found the slow version more alarming. Two and a half years after Truss was hanged from a public scaffold over an unfunded promise to grow the economy, the same Treasury, run by the same permanent and unanswerable governing class, is delivering a yield curve worse than hers and being given the courtesy of a Today programme slot to explain why the fundamentals are sound.
What that costs the rest of us, away from the Treasury's PowerPoint, is direct. The 30-year gilt is the benchmark for the £1.6 trillion of outstanding UK residential mortgage debt, for the cost of every business loan and car loan denominated in sterling, for the present value of every defined-benefit pension that has not yet bought out its liabilities, and for the price at which any government, of any party, can fund anything it announces between now and 2055.
The bond market has, in effect, just taxed the next 30 years of British public life to pay for the failures of the people running the Treasury this quarter.
The downstream maths is the part nobody in the Cabinet would be willing to put up on one of their little slides in their little slideshows.
UK national debt is £2.7 trillion. Annual debt interest already runs above £100 billion, comfortably more than the defence budget. Five years of a 5% yield on that stock is approximately £270 billion of additional interest payments.
That is, by way of comparison, the entire annual cost of the NHS. We are about to spend one NHS, in interest payments alone, on the privilege of having arguably the worst Prime Minister of the post-war era and a Chancellor to match.
Reeves will, in due course, be moved to a non-economic brief and shortly afterwards write a book. Miliband will be Treasury swapped and be given an even greater remit to continue his vital work in impoverishing the British taxpayer than he already had in his present portfolio. The Perm Sec class will, as ever, remain right where they are.
And the interest charges will sit on Britain's books for as long as my generation has working memory. Nobody, in any of the offices currently making the decisions, will have signed their name against any of it.
That's what Starmer meant when he said "the fundamentals are sound" yesterday.
But for all of the associated pain, the country owes the bond market a small debt of thanks.
In the absence of any other working accountability mechanism in British public life, the price of UK sovereign debt has become the only thing left capable of telling Sir Keir Starmer the truth about himself.
He'll, of course, ignore it. The divs who're busying themselves sucking up to his ostensible successors will say unforgivably stupid shite like "the market will have to fall in line" with the next Labour PM.
And the whole sorry show will go on until we finally hit the dawn.