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Very fascinating development.
China was responsible for the commodity bull market in the 2000s and now it prevented a severe global energy and economic crisis.
I can't think of anyone who saw that coming to that degree.
China was oil’s biggest bull since 2000
Now it may be becoming oil’s biggest stabilizer
If China can weather supply shocks with lower imports, geopolitical risk premiums get repriced lower.
That’s bearish for oil—& a strategic game changer for Taiwan.
bloomberg.com/opinion/articl…
#Oil #China #Energy #Geopolitics #Hormuz #Taiwan
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FatumOpes retweeted
My colleagues at Bloomberg News are reporting Qatar plans to restore ~50% of its LNG production in just four weeks after SoH re-opens, and ~80% in two months.
And that's LNG, which requires a lot of work to re-start. Imagine what everyone else is going to do with oil output.
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An unknown 40 year old goalkeeper playing in the second Portuguese league went from a few thousand to 5 million instagram followers overnight after a historic all timer performance.
This is what football is about - the beautiful game. There's nothing like it.
❤️⚽️
Vozinha was in tears after his heroic performance earned a clean sheet and Cabo Verde's first-ever World Cup point 🥺
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That explains a lot actually, if true.
The US secretly approved a financial and maritime arrangement between Qatar and Iran, under which billions of dollars were paid to Tehran in exchange for free passage for Qatari tankers and ships through the Strait of Hormuz, three diplomatic officials now confirm.
This was a deliberate and conscious course of action by the US administration, which allowed its navy to turn a blind eye to the arrangement, in complete contradiction of its declared policy. The move was intended to ease the crisis in global energy markets and curb rising oil prices.
israelhayom.com/2026/06/15/t…
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Potential $300 billion GVC fund is apparently real, wow.
I actually think this could turn out to be a very positive development - integrating Iran's with regional economies could be very positive overall.
IRGC is not Al Qaeda, if you give them economic incentives they could very well act similarly to many military dictatorships and monarchies around the world that are well integrated into the global economic system (Egypt, Saudi Arabia, Pakistan). Many of them have had/have similar issues with human rights or funding militant groups and no one cares.
Iran will continue to fund its proxies/allies, but that's a problem limited to Israel, which is always at war anyways. If not Iran or Hezbollah they'd be fighting Turkey.
And it's not like the US is spending any money here, the gulf countries are, so I think this might actually turn out to be a good outcome. I at least hope so.
Opens up some interesting investment opportunities as well.
16/Trump is now denying the US is giving Iran $300 million. But senior US officials today spoke of a $300 BILLION fund from ... somewhere. Here's what they said: "What will be discussed with them is, you'll see in the MOU, we discussed the possibility of releasing frozen funds, sanctions relief, a big $300 billion fund to rebuild their country, and all of these things are going to be tied to performance, right? The whole term we keep using is, we don't pay for play, we don't pay them to show up at a meeting or to open the strait — and by the way, not even paying, because it's just releasing their funds, or giving them access to the global economy, or corralling other countries to make investments, but that only happens if they make themselves investable."
truthsocial.com/@realDonaldT…
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In the clip JD Vance is not denying a potential $300 billion of investments by the gulf states in Iran. Wild.
I really hope this is now mostly over, at least the energy crisis.
I'm so sick of following Trump's clown show supreme every day.
And of course no more people have to die in a nonsensical war.
Also much easier to make money in a bull market.
Yesterday I warned Trump was getting fleeced by Iran with a $30B deal to temporarily open the Strait of Hormuz
Today Vance confirmed it’s actually $300 BILLION if they comply with all terms
It is far worse than we thought
Catastrophic strategic defeat
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He and the other crypto guys have been saying that for over a year now lol.
Instead of pump and dump crypto tokens people can now invest in a profitable high growth stock.
I wonder what happens to that in case of another crypto bull run $FIGR
Jun 15
Everyone has quit crypto.
At the bottom of crypto.
The best time to buy crypto.
The moment right before cryptos return.
This is by design.
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???
JMIC Advisory Note 007-26 (blockade still in effect)
Click here to view the full advisory note⤵️
ukmto.org/-/media/ukmto/prod…
#MaritimeSecurity #MarSec
ALT JMIC Advisory Note 007-26 (blockade still in effect)
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Seems like the Iranian government wants to pump their stock market pumping as well lol
بورس در یک قدمی ۵ میلیونی
شاخص کل بورس با رشد ۱۶۱ هزار واحدی در پایان معاملات امروز به ۴ میلیون و ۹۸۰ هزار واحد رسید.
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Jun 14
P.S. China won't be able rescue the market in its usual way>>>
Aluminum Bull Case Gains Traction as Output Shrinks
The bull case for aluminum is strengthening as falling production in China and the Middle East collides with rising demand from electrification and the buildout of data centers.
LME cash aluminum’s 20% rally this year, set for the biggest year-to-date gain since 2021, has been helped by a significant drawdown in visible inventories. The futures curve shows front-dated contracts trading at a premium to three-month, an unusual state due to carry costs that signals immediate supply tightness.
Aluminum stockpiles were already tight before the Middle East conflict turned it into a supply-shock trade. Low inventories, a capacity cap in China, and power constraints on Western smelting had already changed the balance. (Bloomberg)
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If you look at forward pe it doesn't look expensive, but people seem to forget that companies are valued on actual Cashflow
Jun 14
There is no stock market bubble.
Large Cap Fwd P/E's (2027/28) & Analysis:
$NVDA: 22.9x -> 16.1x
$GOOGL: 24.8x -> 20.6x
$MSFT: 20.2x -> 16.8x
$AMZN: 24.2x -> 17.9x
$META: 15.7x -> 13.8x
$AVGO: 19.7x -> 16.2x
Analysis:
$NVDA: 16.1x (2028) on >40% growth is the market pricing a sharp deceleration. But Vera Rubin in full priduction ramping in H2. Feel like the market is pricing in ASIC share erosion heading into 2028, but then you've got CPO coming soon.
$GOOGL: The most priced to perfection on this list on cloud backlog Search re-acceleration. But you've got things like TPUs, OCS Jupiter fabric as a structural cost edge. Gemini too.
$MSFT: Stupid cheap. Maia live in DCs for Copilot/foundry inference. Targeting ~50% of AI compute on own silicon by 2028. Rights to OAI's chip designs.
$AMZN: Tough company to model margin trajectory on tbh. AWS acceleration retail/advertising operating leverage make the earnings base the most optionality-driven & hardest to pin. And Trainium shipping, anchored by Anthropic. Plus at what point do robotics/automation start to ramp?
$META: Very cheap due to a "trust discount" on their AI capex, not an earnings problem. If the capex visibly converts to revenue/margin, you get both EPS upside multiple re-rating.
$AVGO: Steep de-rating after their earnings report last week mainly because of ASIC ramp. On CPO, there's arguments to be made that Broadcom wins over Nvidia longer-term.
Personally, I'll be buying Nvidia, Microsoft, Meta and Broadcom a little more heavily through Q3-Q4.
I highly doubt we'll see such compressed valuations in quality tech names for a very long time.
Caveat: 2028 PE's are via my own EPS modelling.
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Timeline keeps getting pushed back, mainly thanks to China
Jun 13
Chevron CEO Mike Wirth says the global energy market now may be able to absorb the Strait of Hormuz disruption until early September.
He is waiting on incorporating the Iran agreement into his view until it is signed and actions are taken according to it
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Huh?
That's completely different to what other Iranian sources are saying.
Committing to get a nuke is a joke, Iran has always had that position.
I guess we'll have to wait for the actual MuO to know its content.
Jun 14
According to the official, under the draft memorandum, Iran would commit not to produce or acquire nuclear weapons, while Washington would waive oil sanctions for a set period and agree to release $25 billion in frozen Iranian assets, including through cash transfers, regional cooperation and financial credit lines.
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What I'm hearing of the MoU sounds like a very good deal for the US, possibly better than JCPOA and very poor deal for Iran.
Iran has apparently given in to my surprise 🤔.
Since Iran has given in on everything else fees are probably also not happening or maybe in a very limited form.
But: another obstacle is still there, that's Israel's attacks on Hezbollah.
Even though Iran seems to be much softer than I expected it can hardly sign a deal when Israel is bombing Beirut.
Jun 14
The Israeli military notified CENTCOM shortly before the strike in Beirut took place, Israeli and U.S. officials say
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FatumOpes retweeted
Jun 12
Norsk Hydro declares new force majeure on Qatar aluminium reuters.com/business/energy/…
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Wtf are the "journalists" that are reporting this conflict doing?
Propaganda is normal, but what is this?
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That sounds like Iran is giving in, or at least the FM wants to give in
Iran’s FM: Negotiations did not lead to war, resisting at the negotiating table led to war.
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Very interesting. If that's confirmed I'll be convinced that at least de-escalation and partly re-opening of the strait is possible.
"UAE to unlock up to $20 billion for Iran"
It's true that Iran has not attacked the UAE recently, but only Jordan, Bahrain and Kuwait.
reuters.com/world/middle-eas…
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