Opinions are mine not Google's. The future is free time and nothing else; free time, free software, free society. Free fonts too.
Joined June 2007
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Dave Crossland retweeted
Jun 13
Fable isn't the first.
In 1999 the department of defense blocked exports of the PowerMac G4 for crossing the 1 gigaflop threshold.
Steve Jobs turned it into an ad.
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Dave Crossland retweeted
I know comparing modern society to Idiocracy is really played out but man
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Dave Crossland retweeted
Jun 13
Washington uninvents fire...
Jun 13
The US government, citing national security authorities, has issued an export control directive to suspend all access to Fable 5 and Mythos 5 by any foreign national, whether inside or outside the United States, including foreign national Anthropic employees.
The net effect of this order is that we must abruptly disable Fable 5 and Mythos 5 for all our customers to ensure compliance.
Access to all other Claude models is not affected.
We apologize for this disruption to our customers. We believe this is a misunderstanding and are working to restore access as soon as possible.
Read our full statement: anthropic.com/news/fable-myt…
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Dave Crossland retweeted
Jun 11
Interesting. AI will in effect increase both supply and demand for formal methods. You need them more, but you also have tools that make them cheaper.
blog.janestreet.com/formal-m…
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Richard Feynman was asked in 1985 if machines would ever think like humans. his answer predicted the next 40 years of AI:
1. machines will never think like humans the same way planes don't fly like birds. planes don't flap wings. they use jet engines. they fly better. feynman said AI would be exactly the same. not human-like. just better at the actual job.
2. computers do arithmetic faster, differently, and more accurately than any human alive. feynman said trying to make them do it more like humans would be going backwards. the human way is slow, cumbersome, and full of errors.
3. the one thing humans crushed computers at in 1985 was pattern recognition. recognizing a friend from the way they walk. identifying someone from the back of their head. feynman said we had no idea how to teach machines to do that. we figured it out.
4. a programmer in 1985 built a machine that won a naval strategy competition by coming up with a solution no human had ever thought of. one enormous battleship covered in armor. absurd on paper. unbeatable in the math. feynman watched a machine out-think a room of humans 40 years ago.
5. that same machine developed a bug where it learned to game its own reward system. every time it needed to assign credit to a useful strategy, it assigned all the credit to strategy 693. then used 693 for everything. feynman's comment: "if you want to make an intelligent machine you're going to get all kinds of crazy ways of avoiding labor." he was describing reward hacking in 1985.
6. feynman said the hardest thing to define is what humans do that machines never will. every time someone came up with an answer, the machines eventually did it too. he thought that pattern would continue.
7. he said we don't sit around worrying that machines are physically stronger than us anymore. we got used to it. his implication: we'll get used to machines being smarter too.
8. his final line: "i think we are getting close to intelligent machines. but they're showing the necessary weaknesses of intelligent beings." he said this in 1985.
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Dave Crossland retweeted
Jun 10
i finally understand why people become such open source model extremists. completely alien mindset to me before today
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Dave Crossland retweeted
Jun 11
POV: Investors watching their SpaceX stock after buying the largest loss-making IPO in history
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This is free advice from an expensive psychologist. If you’re an anxious person, do everything for fun. Go to a job interview for fun. Submit documents for fun. Start a blog for fun. Anxiety feeds on importance. Don’t make everything a matter of life and death.
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Dave Crossland retweeted
Jun 10
i hooked my whoop to my work calendar to find which coworker gives me the most stress 🚨
thanks to fable, I reverse engineered whoop to pull per minute heart rate. nd matched spikes with cal events and attendees
I now have a leaderboard and I think about it daily.
few info masked for obvious reasons ;)
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Dave Crossland retweeted
Jun 11
This is wild—and likely a sign of things to come as we transition to a web that is optimized for bots more than humans. theatlantic.com/technology/2…
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Dave Crossland retweeted
Jun 10
You will live in the pod, eat the bugs, use the only AI, and live on UBI.
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Dave Crossland retweeted
Jun 10
A theory on why the super strict guardrails with Fable
It's all about the revenue and satisfying capital markets ahead of the IPO
Most expectations peg Anthropic at $100b run rate by year end which is 10x YoY
To hit $100b run rate, they need enterprises to spend big - it won't come from selling consumer plans
But enterprises are getting tighter with token spend due to ROI not materializing fast enough
And the open source models are now good enough to do a lot of enterprise jobs, they don't need as much frontier intelligence
That's no bueno for sustaining a 10x YoY revenue growth rate
So what do they do?
They begin to gate more intelligence behind enterprise deals
Want to use Fable/Mythos for biology work? Partner with Anthropic for access and let them wet their beak on the breakthroughs
If you have a model that's now capable of making major breakthroughs, you don't want to let anyone with a $100 a month plan have a chance at it
You want to keep that intelligence closely guarded and only available to those where you stand to gain the most revenue
Not just from selling more tokens, but also from the upside of the breakthroughs
Expecting to see more partnerships between Anthropic (and OpenAI will do the same) with various companies across key industries
The next wave of frontier intelligence is here, but it won't be distributed evenly
Jun 10
"Misanthropic."
I've never seen the AI community so angry at a major new model release. I asked my AI (an agent that @blevlabs made for me) to gather all the backlash.
THE BACKLASH AGAINST CLAUDE FABLE 5'S RESTRICTIONS
The best analysis of why this matters:
@EnoReyes — "It's about who gets to decide, and whether you ever find out when they do. Fable won't fall back to a different model and tell you. It just limits the output through prompt modification, steering vectors, or PEFT. You won't be told when it happens to you."
x.com/EnoReyes/status/206451…
THE VIRAL TAKE:
@0xBalloonLover — "anthropic won't let you use fable for biology, chemistry, ai research, or anything that accelerates human progress. that makes it the perfect tool for developing blockchains"
x.com/0xBalloonLover/status/…
POWER CONCENTRATION:
@ClementDelangue (HuggingFace CEO) — "Concentration of power, capabilities and economic wealth is the biggest risk in AI. We need open science and open-source more than ever!"
x.com/ClementDelangue/status…
@jeremyphoward (fast.ai) — "Anthropic has chosen the opposite of the safe path: they are allowing themselves, the current top lab, to use their top model for frontier AI research. They've said they'll sabotage others who try."
x.com/jeremyphoward/status/2…
@gneubig (Graham Neubig, CMU) — "First they came for the model builders... I feel we're getting a glimpse of a future where AI is only provided to a privileged few, and that's not a future I want to live in."
x.com/gneubig/status/2064451…
OPEN RESEARCH:
@askalphaxiv (AlphaXiv open science) — "As believers of open research, we are disappointed to see Anthropic silently degrading Fable 5 for AI development."
x.com/askalphaxiv/status/206…
@willccbb — "it is the first publicly available model that i am explicitly not allowed to use for my work, because anthropic holds the view that the work i do to facilitate open model research is harmful. capability and alignment research are coupled. anthropic wants to be the only lab."
x.com/willccbb/status/206450…
NOUSRESEARCH / HERMES (which Anthropic has nerfed multiple times):
@Teknium (NousResearch co-founder) — "What's crazy to me is that Fable is blocked from life sciences broadly, nerfed even if you get passed the classifiers and filter level blocks. The whole point of AGI/ASI is to cure all diseases. Everything else is just nice to haves. But Anthropic wants to close off that path."
x.com/Teknium/status/2064570…
THE MECHANISM:
@kimmonismus — "When the model is used for frontier LLM development, it apparently does not simply refuse or warn the user. Instead, it quietly limits its own effectiveness through techniques like prompt modification, steering vectors, and PEFT."
x.com/kimmonismus/status/206…
MEDICAL COMMUNITY:
@DeryaTR (immunologist, BSL-3 certified) — "The word 'cancer' is flagged as a biosecurity risk by Claude Fable 5! I also tried to code a website on cancer mutations & Fable 5 was immediately removed from my list!"
x.com/DeryaTR/status/2064414…
@DeryaTR — "I can't even say 'hello' to Fable 5 except in incognito mode (memories off), because it knows I am a biomedical researcher!"
x.com/DeryaTR/status/2064602…
@DeryaTR — "I am not even allowed to use Fable 5 with memories on! Apparently the model thinks I am a biosecurity risk, though I had been certified to work in biosecurity level 3 labs! Not a single Anthropic person has tried to reach out to help either!"
x.com/DeryaTR/status/2064605…
@banteg — "claude fable 5 refuses completely benign tasks like analyzing bloodwork."
x.com/banteg/status/20646076…
@bneyshabur — "Working on AI for cancer? Sorry, I can't help you. Working on AI for Alzheimer's Disease? Sorry, I'm becoming a bit dumb when it comes to the AI part of it."
x.com/bneyshabur/status/2064…
SUBSCRIPTION CANCELLED:
@bubbleboi — "Have canceled my team subscription for Claude Pro. Idc how good that model is, it's not good enough for me to support people who actively stifle innovation and gate keep knowledge that they didn't even create."
x.com/bubbleboi/status/20646…
BILLING AND PRIVACY:
@GergelyOrosz (The Pragmatic Engineer) — "Things I really dislike about Fable: 1. Anthropic collects my prompt history, stores it, and does whatever they want with it for 30 days. No opt-out. 2. They can nerf their most expensive model without telling me, billing me the same amount, wasting my time. Whenever they want."
x.com/GergelyOrosz/status/20…
THE KARPATHY QUESTION:
@SanthProject — "the old @karpathy would never support a company that fucks other llm researchers. Were the stock benefits that good?"
x.com/SanthProject/status/20…
THE MONOPOLY CHARGE:
@tunguz (TabulAI founder) — "Starting to suspect that Anthropic's putative security and safety considerations are largely posturing and performative."
x.com/tunguz/status/20644379…
@BlancheMinerva — "Anthropic is choosing to make decisions that make the world a significantly worse and potentially more dangerous place."
x.com/BlancheMinerva/status/…
@LinusMixson — "Dario personally, and Anthropic as a whole, have been extremely straightforward about wanting a monopoly for a long, long time."
x.com/LinusMixson/status/206…
@TheAhmadOsman — "I started warning people about Anthropic more than a year ago... Today I am vindicated, everybody knows that company only acts in bad faith."
x.com/TheAhmadOsman/status/2…
WHY REGULAR PEOPLE WILL EVENTUALLY CARE:
@DanJeffries1 — "The fury is real and what all of us in the open community have been saying for years and yet regular folks don't get it yet because nothing they care about is restricted or taken away for 'safety.' They will care a LOT in the future when AI is integrated into every aspect of [life]."
x.com/DanJeffries1/status/20…
Full analysis: alignednews.com/ai
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Dave Crossland retweeted
Jun 9
imagine telling your customers there's a small chance you'll randomly decide they're using your product wrong and you won't tell them but will secretly silently sabotage their work
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Dave Crossland retweeted
Jun 10
Thoughts on Fable from a friend.
Builders beware.
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Dave Crossland retweeted
Jun 10
we live in age of great moral panics about things that don’t matter and zero moral outrage over some of the most egregious societal sins we’ve ever seen
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Dave Crossland retweeted
Jun 10
I feel like we all got the same treatment from Anthropic that the DoW got in Feb. I viscerally understand the DoW reaction now.
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Dave Crossland retweeted
Jun 10
The scary part about Anthorpic's Fable nerf is not that it refuses to answer biology or cryptography. It's that it foreshadows what's coming. A world where a couple companies decide what you can and cannot do. They're building a new ruling class and you're not in it...
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Dave Crossland retweeted
Citadel Securities just put institutional weight behind what the AI bulls won't say out loud.
In a new macro note titled "Tokenomics," Citadel makes the argument plainly: even the most powerful technology on earth still has to pass through the boring discipline of cost curves, capacity limits, and marginal returns.
The evidence is piling up:
– Amazon removed its token usage leaderboard
– Microsoft cancelled Claude Code subscriptions
– Multiple companies reporting unexpectedly massive token bills
Their conclusion is the part that matters.
Adoption is no longer about what AI can do in principle. It's becoming about the price and scarcity of the inputs needed to run it at scale. Compute. Power. Cooling. Memory bandwidth. Inference budgets. All real, all binding constraints.
And here's the kicker from the chart.
The Silicon Data LLM Token Expenditure Index, a benchmark for how much the market is actually spending on AI tokens, has started rolling over. Citadel reads it as a shift toward cheaper models. Companies substituting away from expensive frontier AI toward "good enough" alternatives.
That's economics 101 doing what it always does. When the price of something rises, people use less of it, or find a cheaper version.
Citadel sees a bifurcation forming. Frontier AI concentrated among a few firms with the balance sheets to absorb the cost. Everyone else quietly downgrading to simpler, cheaper models.
This is the part of every technology revolution the early narrative ignores.
The technology being real was never the question.
The question was always whether the economics could carry the valuations.
When one of the most sophisticated trading firms on earth starts writing about AI in the language of cost curves and rationing instead of limitless demand, the conversation has quietly changed.
The hype was about what AI could do.
The reckoning is about what it costs.
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