Hey Phil, Judd, Declan, and Thor — huge fan of Purple Daily. As someone who’s worked in analytics in pro sports, I wanted to propose a new angle for discussion. First, I want to preface my research by saying that I bought a JJ McCarthy jersey after the draft. I really wanted him to be the guy. I am also a big fan of Thor's draft evaluations. So please don't take this as hate. Just wanted to add some data and talking points to your recent discussions on the matter. I built a table of every QB5 since 1980, and if you define a franchise QB as 3 Pro Bowls, the data is pretty clear. Teams are 183% more likely to hit on a franchise QB with QB1 compared to QB2. Teams are 240% more likely to hit on a franchise QB with QB1 compared to QB3. Teams are 467% more likely to hit on a franchise QB with QB1 compared to QB4. The drop-off is incredibly steep. QB5's almost never pan out, and JJ McCarthy was drafted higher than any QB5 in history. Combining those odds with the expectations of a top 10 overall pick is a massive organizational failure by the Vikings front office. I don't want to say the kid never had a chance, but the historical odds of his draft position show that he only had an 8% chance of becoming a franchise QB, a 4% chance of becoming a star QB, and a 2% chance of winning a Super Bowl as a starting QB. I've heard so much about patience, sample size, development, and age when it comes to this McCarthy conundrum. Not nearly enough is being said about his draft position. Even if Kevin O'Connell was a miracle worker and the greatest QB developer of all-time, the odds of him developing a star QB from the QB5 slot is less than 5%. Only 2 QB's drafted 5th at their position in the last 45 years turned out to be stars (Lamar Jackson and Jalen Hurts). Only one (Hurts) won a Super Bowl as a starting QB. Beyond those two outliers, the best QB5 outcomes like Marc Bulger, Andy Dalton, and Matt Schaub were borderline franchise QB's at best. The Vikings made the exact same mistake with Christian Ponder (QB4 at #12). If you're not in position to take QB1, the worst thing you can do is get desperate and talk yourself into QB4 or QB5. History says that has an astronomically low probability of turning into a franchise quarterback. If the Vikings want to find their franchise QB in the draft, they need to make sure he’s the consensus QB1. Trade up or don’t draft one at all. Funny side note: Kevin O'Connell was also the 5th QB taken in his draft, and he didn't pan out either. * Also for those asking, why 3 Pro Bowls for franchise designation? With the recent trend of star QB's opting out of the Pro Bowl and borderline / mid QB's replacing them, you can't just go by 1 or 2 Pro Bowls. That would include players like Jacoby Brissett, Mac Jones, Geno Smith, and Tua Tagovailoa. I don't think anybody would classify those guys as true franchise QB's. @PhilMackey @jzulgad @DexsTweets @thorku @SKORNorth