BIG: Veteran political insider in Tehran with knowledge of Iran-US negotiations alleges that a draft agreement has finally been prepared. Speaking with
@amwajmedia late on June 10, the insider said, “The text is ready. It was finalized tonight,” explicitly giving credit to Qatar, which has been separately engaging with both Iran and the US to forge a deal. “If they can get the final approval by tomorrow, it will be initiated,” he added, seemingly referring to the Supreme National Security Council (SNSC), which gathers Iran’s civilian and military leadership, and the White House.
Spike in Iran-US violence comes amid mixed signaling that suggests possible disconnect between what the respective militaries are doing, and what political leaderships are discussing.
Senior Iranian political source interpreted Trump’s decision to conduct strikes for a second night as reflecting anger with an apparent deadlock in negotiations. While describing Trump as “angry,” the senior source lamented that there appeared to be little cognizance in the White House of how real-world armed confrontations “are not a videogame.”
While the Iranian leadership has authorized retaliatory strikes on US military facilities in Bahrain, Jordan and Kuwait—casting doubt on the prospect of a nod to an imminent deal—there are indications that both sides ultimately want to avoid renewed all-out war.
Late on June 10, Trump claimed to have ordered a halt to bombings after speaking directly with Iranian officials, alleging that he was asked to cease attacks. The US military on June 10 struck a number of military sites in southern Iran as well as near the capital, Tehran. Although Iranian media have denied the claims about any direct contact, Trump notably alluded to the coming 24 hours being decisive, saying that if an agreement on the table is not signed on June 11, “We’ll bomb the shit out of them.” Separately, Vice President J D Vance said the US is engaged with both moderate and hardline voices in Iran as part of the negotiations.
Mindful of the tough rhetoric by military officials in both Tehran and Washington, it is difficult to decipher whether the exchanges of fire are about attempting to set the terms of a deal, or at this point mainly about the optics ahead of an announcement.