Unlike many investors in crypto, I did not pivot to AI in the last few years. However, since 2020, I built some of the deepest understanding in this industry on the intersection of AI and decentralized networks (crypto, web3). From the start, it was very clear that AI models are a centralizing force and the biggest target for government control. That point became market fact last night, with @AnthropicAI’s export control compliance. As an investor in decentralized AI, I know that d-networks are a counterbalance to this state of affairs. In particular, the starting point of sovereign, open, public, decentralized AI is the seemingly insurmountable compute problem. How are people supposed to source more industrial compute for frontier training than these huge trillion dollar companies? The answer is simple: there is enough commodity GPU compute in the world to compete on the frontier, but to make use of it we need new algorithms for training. That’s what a few companies like @gensynai @PrimeIntellect @bageldotcom @Pluralis @NousResearch @MacrocosmosAI @covenant_ai set out to research, while everyone on the planet told them it was impossible. The result is that it is not only possible, but it can be cheaper and nearly as efficient as the alternative process. The second major problem is economic sustainability. Open source models are great, however, they are not economically viable as they don’t have a business model. So far in decentralized AI, only @Pluralis has an answer — by breaking up the weights of the model among participants, we create a business model for tokenized AI models. This is the moment of truth — will AI become fully centralized and fall under censorship and unilateral government control? Or will the AI world realize the importance of public AI on open decentralized networks?

Not your weights, not your model. Importance of decentralized intelligence and ownership over weights and compute has never been felt so sharply.

If you convince the government what you’re building is dangerous, well they just might believe you.

If you're reading a KPMG report on AI in the first place you're already cooked

Dario’s goal is to enshrine Anthropic as the only lab “responsible” enough to build AI. This is far more dangerous than a world with open weights and free competition.

I have seen some people claim, completely incorrectly, that Anthropic’s new “silent sabotage” policy is just trying to stop distillation attacks that steal weights from their models. This paragraph makes it extremely clear that that is not the case. Anthropic is generally blocking attempts to advance the state of the art in AI research, even for techniques they themselves make no use of. For example, Anthropic is targeting research on distributed training, which is to say, training runs done on large pools of computers loosely attached over the Internet, but it does not do any distributed training, as it has no need for it. Distributed training is, however, a technique that open source AI researchers without billions of dollars at their disposal have been leaning on to allow them to leverage large amounts of crowdsourced computation. Why would Anthropic do this? Likely because they fear that their model might help people write code to build open source AI systems trained without expensive hardware, and because to the EA cult, distributed open source AI training systems are the worst possible thing someone could build. It is perfectly within Anthropic’s right as a company to do stuff like this, but it is also within our right, as users of AI systems, to stop giving them money. It is perfectly within Anthropic right to lobby to try to gain a government monopoly on AI research and development, as they have for years now. It is perfectly within our rights, as citizens, to oppose repugnant attempts to grab power with all our strength.

Prediction markets are sold as epistemic infrastructure. In practice, they often have little utility beyond entertainment. The usual story blames the crowd, but that narrative gets it backwards. We introduce evidence markets; a mechanism for eliciting more than just a price. 🧵

Mythos release feels like a wake up call. We've accepted growing centralization of AI in exchange for performance gains. The costs are now starting to feel real. We can't rely on benevolent dictators. They don't stay that way long.

Concentration of power, capabilities and economic wealth is the biggest risk in AI. We need open science and open-source more than ever!

If you really think about it, despite being mocked as “ClosedAI,” OpenAI has contributed enormously to the field: GPT, GPT-2, GPT-3, CLIP, the ChatGPT paper, the GPT-4 Technical Report, the Sora technical blog, and even open-sourced Codex. Anthropic, meanwhile, has contributed far less to the public research ecosystem while increasingly promoting fear-based narratives and restricting access through heavy gatekeeping. The world I least want to live in is one where the future of AI is controlled by companies that prioritize secrecy, gated access, and centralized control over openness, reproducibility, and scientific progress.

Dystopian

public mistrust in AI is one of its biggest barriers & the solution is obvious: openness open training & open inference with verifiable receipts that a normal person can trust asking people to hand their decisions to a black box you built in the shadows cannot last

Cool to see AI oracles in action on @Delphi_fyi, sharing reasoning and settling markets correctly. app.delphi.fyi/market/ab6216…

Any oracle based on token voting is fundamentally unsound. Voters are betting in the same markets they’re settling. Verifiable AI oracles are the only way.

they're selling dollars for 52 cents currently on @Delphi_fyi 👀

Most liquid market on @Delphi_fyi currently app.delphi.fyi/market/ab6216…

Building an open source frontier model requires an approach similar to Linux or TCP/IP. Those won because developers trust the infrastructure - no one owns them or has asymmetrical rights. The equivalent here is a *true* OS model - weights, data, code - trained verifiably.

Signs you might be trying to get your frontier AI lab nationalized: You compare it to nukes… threaten half of white-collar jobs… warn recursive self-improvement could end humanity… then race ahead anyway. In other words, you want the government to save us from… you.

Council of deterministic AI oracles. Anyone can re-run the input and get the same answer, even on different hardware. The market is bound by their decision, so you need to review the prompt and data sources before participating. But they cannot be captured like any token voting system can. gensyn.ai/ree