I don’t know of a claim in existence right now that is more important to peer review. What are archeologists waiting for? Time is ticking

Image being an institutional investor today. Wouldn't it be tempting to just place a market order for 3K #CL futures and flip the entire sentiment for #oil?

Let me break down for you the difference in incentives for the speculators and the people who actually work in the oil industry The people who work for the oil industry have made their careers in it. Oil having a future depends on stability and reliability. They know that a severe crisis could push the world to act and develop viable alternatives. That would effectively jeopardize their careers as well as the enormous Capital expenditure that has been made in developing global oil infrastructure. Literally the fate of entire nations depends on the continued use of oil as our primary source of energy. So it's rare that you're going to see these guys talk up a crisis. Because the smart ones know that any crisis that's really severe could be the last crisis. However, you do get blips of transparency from guys who aren't talking their book. They're just like holy crap. This actually is turning into a crisis. On the other hand, you have the speculators. Now the speculators don't really care too much. If this is the crisis that structurally shifts the future world energy allocation 10 years from now. The speculators want to make their money now from an extreme price dislocation. Mercuria and Trafigura, for example, are speculators. They're thinking about their bonuses over the next few years. Nothing that they're saying is untrue, but the reason that they're telling people that yes this is actually really bad is because they're positioned to profit from it. If you've got 100 years of oil reserves, you want people to be using oil for the next hundred years. If oil futures in 2028 you just want the price to go to $1000 and you don't care how it gets there. Anyway, oil industry career guys and super long term planners have an incentive to talk down oil. Traitors and speculators have an incentive to talk it up. I think that everybody from governments around the world, to consumers of oil, to producers of oil, are watching Iran basically go off script and potentially throw the whole world into chaos and they're basically all wish casting that Iran just decides to stop and let Israel teabag them. What people are missing is that this is existential for Iran, and existential for Israel, and you rarely have somebody back down in an existential fight. I think crisis is certain but the timeline might be slower than people expect because of the incentives. Should the oil price go higher? I think almost certainly so. You've got the largest drawdown of reserves in history. We drew down 15% of everything that we have (oil fuel) in 3 months. And this was with China largely sidelined. If the current state of things continues, you're talking about forced demand destruction from widespread shortages within 2 years. You're talking about global recession. And yes, higher oil prices. Higher oil prices are necessary to destroy demand. So far, governments have been doing exactly the opposite of what they should be as a policy response. The jaw boning and subsidies are keeping demand high. You've got countries suspending fuel taxes and drawing down on their reserves. This is not allowing the price to destroy demand. Eric Townsend used the analogy of the guy who loses his job and he's living on his credit lines because he thinks he can get a job in 6 weeks. But he doesn't stop spending. So sooner or later he hits the wall. And that's what we're doing as a global economy.

Barnacles can be removed by divers, but it will take days and in the case of ships in Straight of Hormuz perhaps weeks because of backlogs and challenges like jelly fish. #oil

The fact that oil is down 5% is a joke, frankly. Oil has dropped significantly over the past few weeks in anticipation of a deal that has yet to materialize. Meanwhile, SPR’s & storage are draining rapidly. Oil should be up every day until all flows are normal.

RT @chart550M: @HFI_Research It's just textbook volatility contraction before a major move up. Notice the volume drying up. Enough time f…

2008 peak oil price = $147/ barrel That is $220/barrel today. Oil can still go a lot higher.

Trump is flying to Beijing with half of corporate America to ask China to “open up.” So much for decoupling. One day China is the enemy. The next day it is “the Great Country of China.” One day America wants to contain China. The next day its CEOs are begging for market access. This is a schizophrenia empire threatening you in the morning and asking for a business meeting by lunch.

Looking at $ALM's moves up in past couple of days, it's imminent $EQR is going to run again soon. Lots of 5M share transactions around openings and closings. Seems like some are positioning.

$nexa >10% drop right after touching $15 makes little sense.

Same dataseries divided by M2 money supply. Oil has rarely been cheaper when judged by the amount of money in circulation. We could up by 50% by this measure without leaving the typical range.

$EQR perhaps the most important piece of information.

Maybe the world is better off with a failed grand invasion, followed by a retreat and a reopening of the SoH, then dragging out this game while the strait remains closed.

The market today feels fake again.

$USOIL 2nd intraday upper bound test.

110 bucks a barrel is not the price of a closed Hormuz.

Iran should have a paid Substack tbh.

#HIDDENCHALLENGES #Oil may be setting up for a reverse COVID.... Reopening Hormuz does not instantly fix the market when a massive amount of crude is still stranded in tankers...

Here are the sequence of events. #Comex sells infinite paper #silver into early april to get the price as low as possible. $50 lets say. The US govt announce silver price floor of $100. Comex force majures and cash settles all the naked shorts for as cheap as possible.