Until tonight, I didn’t think either the US or China would “win” the GenAI race. I thought it would be a tie.
Didn’t occur to me the Trump administration could trip the US efforts from behind. But it just did.
For anyone wondering what this means:
- Anthropic (and potentially future OpenAI, Google, xAI) models that cost billions to develop will make 0 revenue outside the US
- a big double digit percentage of Anthropic (and potentially OpenAI, Google, xAI) workforce can no longer work there, because they are foreigners and are not allowed to use those models
So Trump just made frontier model development effectively unprofitable and tremendously slowed down Anthropic (and potentially others in the future)
He's handing China the win on a gold platter.
*potentially: if the same restrictions are imposed on other frontier labs and models