Journo. US foreign policy and energy reporter. I have a job & things to write so random thoughts here

Joined March 2011
1,374 Photos and videos
Israel genocide Gaza, expanding in West Bank, holds parts of Syria and Lebanon, has offensively struck other countries… yet somehow on defense. Levin in meltdown a good sign. Israel Firsters will spoil and stab Trump in back
This is now the disgraceful propaganda, which is spreading throughout the media, as intended.  Hezbollah and Iran are laughing at the idiocy of the West.  It used to be that Israel is never allowed to defeat its enemies.  Now, Israel is not free to defend its country from terrorist attacks from Iran and its proxies without permission.  This cannot stand and it will not stand. aol.com/articles/iran-peace-…
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Huge if true.
Unconfirmed reports from Iran indicate that Saeed Jalili has been removed from his position as the Supreme Leader’s representative on the Supreme National Security Council and replaced by Ali Bagheri Kani. If true, the move is likely related to Jalili’s and the Paydari Front’s opposition to the anticipated MOU with the U.S.
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Twisted logic. You could change Iran for Israel in a lot of these sentences and would be more accurate. That’s what they do, project onto others what they do.
Let me explain a little bit why Iran being the decisive factor in Lebanon is bad for Lebanon, the US and Israel: 1. It will weaken the Lebanese government further, the same Lebanese government that is currently trying to negotiate with Israel and the US on a possible peace deal. If Iran and Hezbollah can force a ceasefire in Lebanon, then why would anyone take the Lebanese government as a significant actor? 2. It will strengthen Hezbollah immensely. The terror organization will be able to continue to rearm itself uninterrupted by Israel. Hezbollah will also probably feel emboldened again to challenge Israel (they will know that Iran has their back and can stop Israel from doing anything). 3. The region will see how Iran was able to force the US to stop Israel, which means that Israel's deterrence will be weaken, and it will show that eventually Israel can be constrained, as long as you can put leverage on the US President (and Iran apparently can). 4. All these development are a net negative for the US, and you can add to that the fact that the US position in the negotiations with Iran will also be weaken, as Iran saw again how the US is willing to concede a lot in order to get to an agreement.
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Iranian Foreign Minister Abbas @Araghchi gave a lengthy interview to Iranian state television yesterday offering Tehran's framing of the prospective agreement with the United States. Much of his presentation appeared aimed at the domestic political debate surrounding the deal, where deep distrust of Washington is widespread and hardline critics are already mobilizing against any compromise. Araghchi framed the agreement as a means of consolidating what he described as Iran's battlefield success. He argued that Iran had "achieved a strategic victory" and "shattered" the notion of a "weak Iran," but said those gains now needed to be "stabilized" through a memorandum of understanding. Seeking to defend the deal against domestic criticism, Araghchi acknowledged that compromise was unavoidable, arguing that "there is no agreement where one side wins 100 and the other side zero" and that "one must consent to give and take." He also sought to discredit opponents of the agreement by arguing that its foremost enemy is Israel. According to Araghchi, the memorandum itself will be "less than 2 pages" and initially signed through a "digital" and "remote" process. Echoing previous reporting in Iranian state media, he said the nuclear issue has been deferred to a subsequent 60-day negotiating period. If a broader agreement is not reached during that window, he said the talks could be extended or ultimately fail altogether. Importantly, Araghchi repeatedly stressed that progress toward a final agreement will be contingent on the memorandum being fully implemented first. He presented this sequencing as a key safeguard against future American noncompliance. On substance, Araghchi said the memorandum includes the lifting of the U.S. naval blockade and provides not merely for a regional ceasefire, including in Lebanon, but for Israeli "withdrawal." He also stated that Iran's frozen assets blocked under U.S. sanctions would be released under the agreement. Perhaps the most notable element of the interview concerned the Strait of Hormuz. Araghchi said management of "transit in the Strait of Hormuz will not be like the past" and indicated that Iran is working with Oman on a new legal framework governing the waterway. While ruling out "tolls," he suggested that "service fees" would be collected under the new arrangement. Throughout the interview, Araghchi repeatedly emphasized that the 60-day negotiations and any broader agreement would not proceed if the memorandum is not implemented by the United States. He also repeatedly defended the negotiating process as having been approved through consensus by Iran's decision-making institutions, particularly the Supreme National Security Council, which he said has maintained oversight of every stage of the process. Summing up the government's position, Araghchi argued that "the result of the understanding will be good for the national interests of Iran and will stabilize the field achievements."
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🇺🇸🇮🇱 The merger between the U.S. and Israel has a third piece almost nobody is talking about. While Section 224 fuses the militaries, Section 622 moves to fuse the intelligence services... Buried in a 192-page intelligence authorization bill from Sen.Tom Cotton, Section 622 would legally require the president to "expand and enhance intelligence sharing" with Israel across nearly every topic of intelligence interest in the Middle East. It would prohibit any reduction in that sharing except for a "specific and identifiable national security concern," then force a detailed report to Congress within 15 days justifying it. Read that mechanism again carefully. It strips the president of the ability to limit what America tells Israel, then makes any attempt to do so a political fight the Israel lobby can frame as being "against Israel's security." It welds the intelligence spigot open by law. Now stack the three pieces moving through Congress at once: -The Stutzman resolution phases out visible aid. -Section 224 integrates the militaries. -Section 622 mandates intelligence sharing. Each one is less publicly accountable than the last. Aid is a line item voters can see. Intelligence liaison happens in the dark, where no price tag ever appears. The strategy is to move the relationship out of public view precisely as public support collapses. And the timing is the most scandalous part. The Pentagon just rated Israel a "critical" espionage threat. Congress's response to all of it is to legally mandate that America share more secrets with the country its own spy agencies say is robbing it. Source: Responsible States Craft / Writer: Daniel
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Administration has settled on "no money will exchange hands" as way to paper over unfreezing assets and Iranian oil sales, and "at an appropriate time" as way to paper over lack of agreement to remove HEU. This deal is going to test Trump's salesmanship even with his own base.
Trump on Truth Social: Barack Hussein Obama’s Deal with Iran, the JCPOA, was an easy, beautiful, smooth road to a Nuclear Weapon, which Iran would have had six years ago, and would have used long before now. My Agreement with Iran is the exact opposite, A WALL TO NO NUCLEAR WEAPON! In fact, they no longer want a Nuclear Weapon, nor will they have one, either through purchase, development, or any other form of procurement. The Deal is scheduled to get signed tomorrow, and immediately after it is signed, the Hormuz Strait is OPEN TO ALL. Our relationship with Iran is a much different and better one than previous Administrations have had. Unlike Obama’s Hundreds of Billions of Dollars in payments to them, including 1.7 Billion Dollars in green, cold cash, no money will exchange hands. At the appropriate time, when all is calm, we will go in and get the Nuclear Dust, buried deep under the powerful sunken granite mountains, thanks to our beautiful B-2 Bombers and their brilliant pilots, and downblend and destroy it, whether in Iran, or the United States. We look forward to working with Iran, and the entire Middle East, long into the future. Hopefully, this process will all work out quickly, easily, and smoothly. If it doesn’t, we have the ultimate alternative, hopefully never to be used again! Thank you for your attention to this matter!!!
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Iran didn’t take world hostage, US & Israel did my launching a regime change war and trashing deals
For nearly a half century, through eight American Presidencies, Iran has employed the most cost-effective tactic of warfare by seizing someone or something of value and holding it hostage. And while Iran has demonstrated its ability to hold out, sometimes for years, for what it wants, the U.S., with its two- and four-year election cycles, has limited patience. Read more about Iran’s hostage tactics: newyorkermag.visitlink.me/Wu…
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This is what happens when you advocate failed policies from JCPOA exit to strikes during negotiations to attempts at regime change.
Senior Israeli officials quoted in a Channel 12 report say that the emerging US-Iran deal indicates that Washington has agreed to Tehran’s “main conditions,” adding that “the Iranians are not agreeing to this for nothing.” The report says Israeli officials and experts who have worked for decades on the Iran file consider that the terms of the MOU apparently set to be signed tomorrow “endanger Israel’s security interests.” What will happen immediately “is the opening of the Strait of Hormuz, the resuscitation of the regime, and a slap in the face for the Iranian public,” the officials say. Iran is “paying on credit” with this framework, the officials say, with Tehran only agreeing to discuss its nuclear program once the war formally ends and a number of other conditions are met, including the release of frozen Iranian funds. “This is the same framework as the agreement to end the war in Gaza,” an official tells the TV station. “Ask yourself what has happened since then with the commitment to disarm Hamas? What will be the Americans’ essential leverage if, after 60 days of a ceasefire, the Iranians do not begin the steps required of them? The credible military threat has been all but eroded.” timesofisrael.com/liveblog_e…
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Spoilers out
“We will consider any agreement regarding your nuclear-weapons program that is not approved by the Congress as nothing more than an executive agreement between President Obama and Ayatollah Khamenei.  The next president could revoke such an executive agreement with the stroke of a pen.” Obama’s nuclear deal bypassed Congress, making it easy to reverse by a future President. It was. The same is true of this deal (or not even, just an MOU). Unless it’s ratified by Congress. In 2015, 47 Republican Senators reminded the regime about this pesky feature of our democracy.
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I have fought the neocons and warmongers in Washington for more than 25 years. Throughout, they have tried to silence, discredit, slander, and cancel me. Only recently, however, have they tried to deport me. At least, that appears to have been the aim of a hit piece in Bari Weiss’s The Free Press, which claimed that Marco Rubio’s State Department was “investigating” me for allegedly seeking to “undermine the U.S.”—presumably because of my opposition to war with Iran. Yet just hours later, the State Department issued a statement to reporters clarifying that “the State Department has no plans to revoke the green card of Mr. Parsi at this time.” Nor did it provide any confirmation for the central premise of the Free Press story—that an investigation of me existed in the first place. So here’s what I think happened. Read the full piece on my Substack: tritaparsi.substack.com/p/so…
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The Laura Loomer regime fears someone who can speak to the Left and the Right at the same time.
I have fought the neocons and warmongers in Washington for more than 25 years. Throughout, they have tried to silence, discredit, slander, and cancel me. Only recently, however, have they tried to deport me. At least, that appears to have been the aim of a hit piece in Bari Weiss’s The Free Press, which claimed that Marco Rubio’s State Department was “investigating” me for allegedly seeking to “undermine the U.S.”—presumably because of my opposition to war with Iran. Yet just hours later, the State Department issued a statement to reporters clarifying that “the State Department has no plans to revoke the green card of Mr. Parsi at this time.” Nor did it provide any confirmation for the central premise of the Free Press story—that an investigation of me existed in the first place. So here’s what I think happened. Read the full piece on my Substack: tritaparsi.substack.com/p/so…
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It is true that Iran used its power over the strait to assume leverage over the US and eventually compel a favorable settlement. But this obscures what may be the more significant achievement: that after 40 days of bombing, Iran never lost the ability to both keep the strait closed and threaten regional infrastructure. Its missile cities still stand, its launchers survived, its drone/missile arsenal were depleted but, thanks to careful management, remain potent. In the end, Iranian missiles and drones proved more effective at accomplishing their mission than US TLAMs, F-35s, and strategic bombers.
For nearly a half century, through eight American Presidencies, Iran has employed the most cost-effective tactic of warfare by seizing someone or something of value and holding it hostage. And while Iran has demonstrated its ability to hold out, sometimes for years, for what it wants, the U.S., with its two- and four-year election cycles, has limited patience. Read more about Iran’s hostage tactics: newyorkermag.visitlink.me/Wu…
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Netanyahu has decided to accept the Iranian deal. Security officials are despondent and see it as a disaster. Ynet brings some high level quotes from them: 1) A senior Israeli official said "Nobody is happy with this. We understand it is not good for us, and that it harms Israeli interests. What is troubling is that Israel cannot influence it. Its voice is not being heard." 2) The anger at Trump is palpable.: "Trump screwed us, we took the hit. We're no longer in the loop and can't really influence anything." 3) Israelis fear Iran will be economically revived: "They've blown money on the Iranians, who are getting everything they want. They'll build a missile corps, and we'll have to pour money into interceptors." Israel sees oil revenue flowing back into the exact capabilities the war was meant to degrade. 4) They don't believe a deal will adequately deal with the nuclear issue: "The real test of the deal is removing the uranium and destroying it. If that doesn't happen, the sense of a bad deal will turn into something more concrete." 5) They fear this will embolden Iran: "Iran has smelled that it can achieve things by force, and it will use that against its neighbors and against us." 6) The deepest worry is not military. It is perception. After months of direct fire, Iran is seen across the region as the side that took the pressure and did not fold: "the regional working assumption will be that it was signed under Iranian pressure and American capitulation, rather than the reverse." Israel is concerned that Iran will be stronger, the US will be weaker and that the future for it will be bleak in the region. This war has been a disaster for Israel.
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⭕️ NEW: Hours after U.S. Central Command claimed it had intercepted multiple Iranian one-way attack drones allegedly launched toward commercial shipping in the Strait of Hormuz, the UK Maritime Trade Operations (UKMTO) says a tanker was struck by an “unknown projectile” about 6 nautical miles east of Oman near the Strait of Hormuz. According to the advisory, the vessel was hit in the port bow, but the crew is safe, no environmental damage has been reported, and the tanker is continuing to its next port of call. Authorities are investigating the incident
UKMTO WARNING 068-26 Click here to view the full warning.⤵️ ukmto.org/-/media/ukmto/prod… #MaritimeSecurity #MarSec
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RT @ed_fin: “The situation around Hormuz has shifted: recent developments indicate that Iran is losing some of its leverage, while the US i…
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🎥 University of Tehran professor Hassan Ahmadian predicts another round of war between Iran and its allies and Israel is likely. And rather than allowing Israel to separate Iran’s support for Lebanon, Tehran’s strategy will be to “decouple” Israel from the United States by focusing future confrontation on Israel. “What can it alone, with solely its own power, achieve by attacking Iran and its allies? I think that would be another losing bet for the Israelis,” Ahmadian said. @hasanahmadian | @jeremyscahill
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🎥 Top Iranian analyst @hasanahmadian spoke with Drop Site’s @jeremyscahill to break down how US President Trump, after failing militarily, grew desperate for a diplomatic exit — and ended up capitulating to the very framework Iran had been pushing all along. Ahmadian says a deal covering two core Iranian demands was within reach. It included an end to the war, including Israeli withdrawal from Lebanon, and the unfreezing of Iranian assets and lifting of the oil embargo. In return, the U.S. was promised freedom of navigation in the Strait of Hormuz. But Trump tried to revise the agreed framework after it had already been finalized with mediators, pushing Iran to walk away from direct talks entirely. When the U.S. escalated militarily, Iran struck back harder. “The Iranians not only didn’t respond to President Trump — they actually showed that they are willing to engage in another war if need be and not succumb to what he was demanding.” That’s when Trump realized he couldn’t turn a military failure into a diplomatic win, and ultimately capitulated, Ahmadian told Drop Site. 🔗 Watch the full interview on Drop Sites’ YouTube channel
⚡️New from @DropSiteNews: The Art of Capitulation: Trump Desperate for Iran Offramp Top Iran analyst Dr. @HasanAhmadian tells @JeremyScahill that Donald Trump was forced to seek a deal on Iran’s terms after meeting the “hard rock” of Iranian resistance. youtu.be/dbgoJTR1GX8?is=xaUi…
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