By the way, this reporting would tend to support the hypothesis of @francoisdm that Iran "transferred to Isfahan up to 540 kilograms—possibly all—of its highly-enriched uranium inventory before the June strikes last year."

I said it about Netanyahu last week. It's true today as well.

The regime's trap is closing in. When Tehran slow-walked a U.S.-offered deal, many read it as strength. @MDubowitz and I called it what it is: fear of fracture and losing legitimacy with its shrinking core supporters. As we wrote in the @NYPost: "The regime spent decades telling its base the nuclear program was sacred. Now it may have to surrender it." It promised its small radicalized core the annihilation of Israel, expulsion of U.S. bases, and a world-class nuclear & missile program. Poof — all gone. That's exactly why the few remaining influential figures couldn't reach a decision in Islamabad.

Reported terms of the MOU between Iran and the U.S. In the short term Iran will get $25 billion in financial unlocks in exchange for mutual lifting of the blockades:

Vance: The HEU is buried. Me: It's not buried. Khamenei: God damn it, I'll bury it.

Amazing if four months of war comes to an end with J.D. Vance getting an email "Please DocuSign these documents: IranUSA_MOU_Final_FINAL_ActuallyFinal_V43"

RT @ed_fin: “The situation around Hormuz has shifted: recent developments indicate that Iran is losing some of its leverage, while the US i…

Everybody is talking about how the SPR draining, hitting the red line, is forcing Trump's hand to make a deal - which is true. But not enough is said about what is forcing Tehran's hand. The power of the chokepoint is strong, and it works both ways.

"Seeking to protect its economic crown jewel, these officials said, #Qatar approached Tehran at the start of the war to present a mutually beneficial arrangement: #Iran would refrain from hitting Ras Laffan, and Qatar would halt gas production unilaterally — a move that would send energy prices soaring and put economic pressure on the United States and Israel to shorten the war." washingtonpost.com/world/202…

*US ENERGY SECRETARY: FLOWS OUT OF PERSIAN GULF ABOUT 7M B/D Wow, this is WAY WAY WAY more than any pundit dared to imagine (but very much in line with my longheld thesis)

U.S. Strategic Oil Releases Buy Time - But Not Much More Since the start of the war with Iran and effective closure of the Strait of Hormuz, U.S. petroleum inventories have fallen at some of the fastest rates on record, acting a shock absorber to avert fuel shortages and limit price rises. The United States has become the supplier of last resort, accelerating exports of crude and refined products to the rest of the world, making up for some of the oil lost from the Persian Gulf. The government owned Strategic Petroleum Reserve has functioned as intended to forestall panic buying and hoarding, minimise the impact on the national economy, and allow additional time for diplomatic and military planning. But the rate of inventory depletion is unsustainable, which explains the increasing urgency to find a way to re-open the Strait through negotiations or the provision of military protection to tankers transiting the waterway ...

It doesn’t look like we have a deal.

Iraq is accelerating crude loadings at Basrah port with about 7 million barrels shipped early in June 2026, matching April-May totals combined.

2/2 I have spent much of 2026 speaking to EU officials in Europe and China, and I think Beijing seriously underestimates how worried and angry EU officials are about Chinese trade practices, but I also think Beijing recognizes how little the EU can do about it as a unified body.

Academic writing should be addressed neither to the public nor to other academics. It should be addressed to a single interlocutor with whom you have a petty rivalry and whose work you are trying to discredit

CHART OF THE DAY: Corn prices have fallen now to an 8-month low of $4.17 a bushel (it's down ~50% from its 2022 peak). Quite a contrast with the apocalyptic warnings of a food crisis, shortages and even famine made by many armchair experts (and the odd university professor).