President Trump has called off the attack in the Iran War, scheduled for Tuesday. Despite the warnings from war game planners and military strategists like the head of the Joint Chiefs of Staff General Dan Caine, President Trump had ignored their advice, when he started the Iran War. President Trump was certain that from the falling of the bombs, the Iranian government would be overthrown (no historical precedent for that), and that the death of the Ayatollah Khamenei alone would cause the Iranian government to collapse, and that his son won't replace him. President Trump was convinced that the Iranian government won't be bombing US military bases in the Persian Gulf (even though it did that in 2025), and that it won't control the Strait of Hormuz (even though it did that right before the start of the Iran War). President Trump was certain that the US government won't run out of ammunition, after being warned by General Caine. When it did, President Trump decided to have a ceasefire. It appears now, that President Trump may be listening to advice from General Caine, as President Trump has postponed an attack on Iran, that was scheduled for Tuesday, President Trump could be finally seeing what previous Presidents have been warned about by military experts: the Iranian government has escalation dominance. Pretending that it does not, means making the Red Sea vulnerable to closure and raising gas prices even further, targeting President Trump's business interests, UAE data centers, and strikes against oil refineries in the Persian Gulf, which would cause greater economic pain for the American people. President Trump can choose to walk away. This would prevent greater damage to the world and US economy (which would come from maintaining the status quo or using the military option). When playing in a casino, one is gambling with one's own money. It is different when one is gambling with the US economy, for the predictable disaster will impact millions of people. Ending the embargo and having talks, where peace is the goal (and not the overthrow of the Iranian government, that has had escalation dominance for decades) is a sensible exit strategy. Insisting on the Iranian government not developing the nuclear weapons it is not developing (according to the US intelligence, including the DNI) is a dead end. When the Trump Administration stops the insistence on the ban of enrichment of uranium for peaceful purposes, that would be one sign that it finally wants peace. #exitstrategy #IranWar #escalationdominance #escalationcontrol #missileshortage #UraniumEnrichment #StraitofHormuz #blockade #redsea #peace #MilitaryOption #walkingaway #walkaway #gasprices #UAE #UAEdatacenters #oilrefineries Trump says an attack on Iran planned for Tuesday is called off nbcnews.com/world/iran/trump… via @nbcnews

5/ The next crisis in South Asia will move faster than diplomacy. That is why credible deterrence, escalation control, and strategic maturity matter far beyond the Subcontinent. #NuclearRisk #EscalationControl #SecurityStudies #IndiaPakistan

With the ceasefire set to expire on Wednesday, the US government is expected to attempt to achieve militarily, what it did not achieve diplomatically - the surrender of the Iranian government. The US government claims that the Iranian government has lost the war, pointing to the damage that the small Iranian Navy has sustained, and pointing to the missiles that have been used up by the Iranian government. However, it is also the case that the underground missiles that the Iranian government has been making for years, continue to be produced. What the past asymmetric wars show, that just because one side has more planes, ships, etc., does not mean that it would necessarily win wars, as the examples of Afghanistan and Iraq demonstrate. If the Iranian government will keep its promises as it did before the war, and on top of restricting the Strait of Hormuz and attacking US military bases, will strike at oil refineries, this will further damage the world and US economy, and could lead to a world depression. Restricting the Red Sea access by the Yemen government would cause further damage. On top of rising gas prices, food prices will increase, due not just to higher gas prices, but due to the lack of fertilizers. This would further the economic damage, which would result from the lack of sulfur, helium, and products that include other elements. Undoubtedly, the Trump Administration is aware of the risk. However, it hoped to achieve a quick directional change of government at the beginning of the war (which was based on the belief in a successful internal revolt, that was previously put down), so it assumed that the Iranian government wouldn't restrict the Strait of Hormuz and it wouldn't bomb the US military bases in the Persian Gulf. Does it now think that a quick surrender by the Iranian government would be achieved, so none of the other threats would materialize? The Iran-Iraq War was fought for 8 years, and over 400,000 lives were lost on the Iranian side. It is understandable that President Trump would like to present to his base what it can call a "victory", and not what President Trump has called a "victory". Currently, Mark Levin and other Trump supporters made it clear that they don't think that President Trump has won the war. However, what happens when the Iranian government does not surrender, as it made clear that it won't, and proceeds with its plans, that could ruin the world and US economy? Is the Trump Administration willing to take that risk or is it willing to negotiate in good faith to reach a deal (which includes allowing peaceful use of nuclear energy, instead of insisting on zero percent enrichment) and avoid a potential catastrophe? There is a reason why previous Presidents didn't start the Iran War in the first place. The Pentagon didn't want to be sucked into a war, where it did not see it being able to have escalation control. It is time to make the ceasefire permanent. #iranwar #10PointPlan #peaceplan #irangovernment #iraniangovernment #IslamabadTalks #PresidentTrump #assymetricwarfare #escalationcontrol #failureoftalks #StraitOfHormuz #usgovernment #peacetalks #redsea #YemenGovernment #Houthis #nuclearenrichment #uraniumenrichment #ceasefire 'Resumption of hostilities': Seized ship, vessel attacks push U.S.-Iran ceasefire toward brink cnb.cx/4cwb02j

Today's read. spindelta.ghost.io/fragile-c… #SpinDelta #Geopolitics #MiddleEast #Ceasefire #IsraelLebanon #USForeignPolicy #EscalationControl #Hormuz #OilMarkets #GlobalRisk

The failure of talks in Islamabad after 21 hours has come from the difference between the Iranian and US governments on which side was coming to the talks from the position of strength. Even though, the Iranian government has control over the Strait of the Hormuz, the US government's position is that it has won the war. Therefore, the US government's stance was that it could make its own demands over the Strait of Hormuz, over which the US government has no control. The reason why previous Presidents did not start a war against Iran, was because of the lack of the US government's advantage in escalation control. Simply put, it was understood by Pentagon officials that the Iranian government had always more cards to play in the Strait of Hormuz. The government of Iran was seen as capable of attacks on US military bases and oil refineries, etc... The Strait of Hormuz restrictions and attacks on oil refineries would have likely collapsed the world and US economy... War games had been conducted that showed significant American casualties. Numerous articles from military strategists have been written about this topic over the last two decades. However, even though President Trump has been publicly looking for an off-ramp and has made the Iranian government's 10 Point Plan a subject of negotiations, this was countered by the insistence that the US government has won the war and that it would make its own demands, including zero enrichment of uranium. As a result, the talks have collapsed. Previous talks have collapsed after the Iranian government didn't agree to demands of the US government that included a call for the Iranian Navy to be destroyed. #iranwar #escalationcontrol #10PointPlan #peaceplan #wargames #iraniangovernment #IslamabadTalks #PresidentTrump #failureoftalks #usgovernment #peacetalks #straitofhormuz #nuclearenrichment #uraniumenrichment No agreement between U.S. and Iran after 21 hours of talks, Vance says nbcnews.com/world/iran/live-… via @nbcnews

Drone incursions and A2/AD pressures are straining Black Sea stability, but the Montreux-based order enforced by Türkiye remains the main brake on escalation. #EscalationControl #Montreux

The ability to understand thresholds is the new form of strategic literacy. The future of deterrence will hinge on whether adversaries can still recognize each other’s limits. Read 𝘌𝘹𝘢𝘮𝘪𝘯𝘪𝘯𝘨 𝘛𝘩𝘳𝘦𝘴𝘩𝘰𝘭𝘥𝘴 𝘪𝘯 𝘢𝘯 𝘌𝘢𝘴𝘵-𝘞𝘦𝘴𝘵 𝘞𝘢𝘳 By Col. (Ret.) Shawn P. Creamer smallwarsjournal.com/2025/10… #Deterrence #Strategy #EscalationControl #SmallWarsJournal #SWJEssay

If you are interested in understanding Pakistan's Army Rocket Force and Logic of Deterrence, read the following article by Dr. Zahir Haider Kazmi, Arms Control Advisor Strategic Plans Division (SPD). In his insightful analysis, he highlights; 1. 🛑Pakistan's new Army Rocket Force (ARFC) as a doctrinal evolution, not a revolution. 2. 🛑ARFC reinforces deterrence by providing precise conventional strike options, denying an adversary space for limited war below the nuclear threshold. 3. 🛑It enhances strategic stability by clearly separating conventional and nuclear command structures, ensuring calibrated responses, and preserving escalation control. 🔍 ⏩Read here⏩: strategicforecast.cissajk.or… #CISSAJK #StrategicForecast #ArmsControl #Deterrence #StrategicStability #RocketForce #ConventionalDeterrence #EscalationControl #PakistanSecurity #DefenseStrategy @RadioactiveFrnd @DerekJGrossman @clary_co @PravinSawhney @ethrelkeld #Pakistan #India @zafarwafa1977 @bttn_quetta @CISSS_Karachi @CISS_Islamabad @isc_issi @ISSIslamabad @zahirhkazmi

12/ Ceasefire Dynamics On 10 May, a ceasefire was agreed. Lt Gen Singh revealed Pakistan backed down fearing a larger Indian strike. 📎 OneIndia #EscalationControl oneindia.com/india/operation…

In response to @walterladwig’s piece on Operation Sindoor in @RUSI_org, I offer a companion analysis: “Seeing the Whole Board” — on Pakistan’s calibrated deterrence, QPQ , and why escalation dominance was denied, not achieved. 🔗 thesvi.org/seeing-the-whole-… #EscalationControl

In response to @walterladwig’s piece on Operation Sindoor in @RUSI_org, I offer a companion analysis: “Seeing the Whole Board” — on Pakistan’s calibrated deterrence, QPQ , and why escalation dominance was denied, not achieved. 🔗 thesvi.org/seeing-the-whole-… #EscalationControl

Pakistan’s edge in the 2025 crisis didn’t come from volume of fire it came from how fire was directed. Secure data links, real-time targeting, and electronic warfare shaped outcomes long before the dust settled.Great analysis @PravinSawhney #EscalationControl #DigitalBattlespace

Reflections on the #PakistanIndiaCeasefire2025 By the Grace of the Almighty Allah (SWT) the seemingly weaker David has once again unsettled the #overconfident #Goliath. Scorecard India (🇮🇳): #PahalgamFalseFlag → Misinformation Media Orchestration → Bollywood Fury → Botched Air Warfare → Loss of Aircraft, Credibility, and Regional Standing → Strategic Autonomy Eclipsed by Dependence on External Guarantees → From “New Normal” to #NewAbnormal → Once more, economic heft and numerical superiority neutralised by political miscalculation → #Modi now faces a strategic and political reckoning ahead of #Bihar and #indiannationalelections. Pakistan (🇵🇰): #PakistaniStrategicPrudence: Caught off-guard yet responded with clarity → Offered Joint Inquiry, Held Moral Ground → Executed a Brilliant #InformationCampaign → #Won #LargestAirBattle in Contemporary South Asian History → Dispelled the Myth of #DroneWarfare and #EscalationControl → Demonstrated #PrecisionStandoffCapability Across the Spectrum → Upheld #DeterrenceDiscipline — Managing the #Conventional-Nuclear Firebreak Flawlessly → #FullSpectrumDeterrence: Revalidated & Respected.

Pakistan’s Likely Response to Indian Airstrikes in Kashmir: A Strategic Assessment India’s recent precision airstrike across the Line of Control (LoC) fits within a doctrinal framework of proactive, limited-force projection—designed to impose costs on state-sponsored militancy while avoiding full-scale escalation. Historically, Pakistan’s counter-responses to such strikes have been constrained, symbolic, and heavily mediated by both internal vulnerabilities and external diplomatic pressure. Historical Precedent: Following the 2016 surgical strikes and 2019 Balakot operation, Pakistan adopted a two-pronged approach: immediate retaliatory demonstrations (e.g., attempted airstrikes), paired with denial or downplaying in domestic media. In both instances, Indian dominance in ISR (Intelligence, Surveillance, Reconnaissance), standoff munitions, and aerial superiority rendered Pakistani efforts tactically ineffective and strategically hollow. Operational Constraints: •Air Defense Limitations: Despite activating full air defense posture, Pakistan’s radar coverage and response times lag behind India’s integrated air command systems. The IAF’s edge in platforms like Rafale, Su-30MKI, and advanced AEW&C aircraft negates Pakistan’s limited F-16 fleet and legacy Chinese platforms. •Nuclear Posturing Is a Bluff: Pakistan’s reliance on “Full Spectrum Deterrence” serves more as psychological theater than usable battlefield leverage. Any nuclear signaling is constrained by global strategic isolation and fear of existential retaliation. •Economic and Political Fragility: With ongoing IMF supervision, soaring inflation, and deep civil-military fissures, Pakistan is in no position to sustain high-tempo warfare or escalate beyond controlled skirmishes. Projection: Expect limited, face-saving actions: token artillery exchanges, symbolic air sorties, or cyber propaganda. But strategic escalation is unlikely. Pakistan understands well that any serious conflict risks national disintegration—not Indian defeat. Conclusion: India holds escalation dominance. Pakistan will posture, but not provoke. The rules of engagement remain tilted in New Delhi’s favor. #IndiaStrikesBack #KashmirStrike #PakistanLimits #StrategicSuperiority #AirDominance #MilitaryAnalysis #LoCIntel #EscalationControl #NoWarJustWhimpers #MAGA

-SVI Analysis- "Given the unfavorable military environment, the lofty claim of seizing #GB or #AJK isn’t more than hollow chest-thumping. The false bravado is likely an appeal to the Hindu nationalist support base of the ruling Bharatiya Janata Party (#BJP) to stir jingoism at a time when national elections in #India are just months ahead." "If the #Pulwama crisis provides some clues, #Pakistan displayed the political will and the military capability to respond to limited Indian attacks. In fact, via #OperationSwiftRetort, @DGPR_PAF established aerial supremacy over its Indian counterpart, which should be enough to scuttle the #Indianmilitary leadership’s misplaced belief about attaining #escalationcontrol against Pakistan," writes @HamdanKhan08 🔗Read More: thesvi.org/hollow-chest-thum…

Ich kann gar nicht sagen, wie sehr ich hoffe, dass wir eines Tages weißhaarig im Schaukelstuhl auf diese Zeit zurückblicken und sagen können, ja, das war schlimm, aber zum Glück konnte eine Eskalation vermieden werden. #ukraine #escalationcontrol

„Die Zeit der Zögerlichkeit ist vorbei.“ Ja toll. Mit Volldampf in den 3. Weltkrieg. #ukrainewar #nuclear #retaliation #escalationcontrol Sarcasm off

#ukrainewar #nuclear #retaliation #escalationcontrol This is a great idea in the current tension! Very responsible. Sarcasm off. Absolutely unnecessary signal and a commissioning of machinery in which technical or human errors (usually not a problem) can become a disaster.

Ich werde langsam unruhig. #ukrainewar #nuclear #retaliation #escalationcontrol

China military states it has completed '#joint' military exercises near Taiwan (i.e. the sure-fire expensive & logistically challenging kind). But, PLA will still conduct "regular combat readiness patrols" -- presumably relatively cheaper & flexible. #EscalationControl /1