These are great lists. With AI now, it's very easy to analyze past predictions like this. I had my open claw analyze all the startups on the 2024 list by
@thogge and 43% had a negative event categorized as a down round, layoffs, shutdowns, or seem stagnant. (No jab here, just was interested in how these actually turn out)
Down Rounds: Canva ($65B → $42B), OpenStore ($970M → $50M), Stability AI ($1B → $158M), Blackbuck (−35% ahead of IPO), Bittensor, Solugen
Shutdowns / Near-Shutdowns: Seis (shut down Jan 2026), Quince (looming bankruptcy threat reported Feb 2026)
Layoffs: Alma (9%), Astranis, Drata (16%), EvenUp, Medely (multiple rounds), Pivot Bio, Redpanda (13%), Rippling, Rula, Silo (30%), True Anomaly (25%), Unit (15%), Viz ai (13%)
Stagnant / No New Funding: Material Security, Medely, Modern Treasury, Pivot Bio, Silo, SiteRX, Virta Health, Viz ai
Someone should create easy to comprehend index of startup predictions vs how they played out and why. Happy to share raw data.
for the past 2 years I have published the top startups on the Exceptional Startups list.
it's about time to do 2026.
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ExceptionalStartups.com