As it relates to
$IREN, your facts and conclusions are off, Daniel.
$IREN did in fact start developing "AI data centers" as early as 2021, when breaking ground in Prince George & Mackenzie (Canada).
Technically, you could even go as far back as 2019, when you take into account the company's first site 'Canal Flats', partially developed by PodTech, a data center company
$IREN merged with in early 2020.
You are conflating a few things...
Yes,
$IREN's first batch of H100 GPUs, did not get installed until February 2024, but the underlying data center infrastructure already existed many years prior.
While that infrastructure was initially purposed to mine
$BTC, it was always over-specced for that singular purpose (much more expensive & durable than traditional mining data centers).
Since day 1, management positioned itself as a disruptive data center company.
Mining
$BTC was merely the easiest path forward to monetize its powered-land portfolio quickly & scale its data center footprint at rapid speeds. As such, the facilities were always designed to be modular and multi-purpose.
That design philosophy allowed
$IREN to "re-purpose" its 50 MW Prince George data centers for its AI cloud operations by simply taking out
$BTC mining ASICs and replacing them with GPU racks.
Sure, to run cloud operations
$IREN had to add back-up generators and other redundancy-purposed infrastructure at its sites, but that's merely a question of costs, not "development expertise".
The core data center footprint has been developed in-house many years ago, not in "mid 2024" as you claim.
It's also misleading to measure
$IREN's build speed by anchoring to the start of its cloud operations and extrapolating from there.
These are 2 completely different KPIs...
Once Childress was fully ramped,
$IREN proofed it could build 50 MW (gross) of air-cooled data center infrastructure in a timeframe of just 1 month. Then, if you account for the extra time needed to install back-up generators (for cloud) installing the GPU racks, you land at roughly 2-3 months.
That lands you at a build speed of ~17 MW / months.
Admittedly, that's the speed for air-cooled deployments, not liquid cooled, which would take significantly longer to develop. But that's beside the point.
You used an inherently flawed method to calculate "build speed" and paint a negative picture of
$IREN relative to
$NBIS.
I don't think you did that on purpose, but you still got to be careful making these kinds of blunt statements. It's an easy way to loose credibility fast.
What you calculated is still a valid KPI, but its not the same as "build speed".
You effectively calculated how quickly
$IREN scaled its existing cloud operations over the past years, relative to
$NBIS. And yes,
$IREN comes up short in that comparison.
But why is that? As I demonstrated,
$IREN is clearly not lacking in development speed, so why did they scale rather slowly?
If you had been following the company for a whale, you'd know by now that
$IREN is incredibly meticulous about timing hardware cycles.
Management is executing the exact same playbook during its
$BTC mining times...
While most competitors over-commit to hardware that will soon be overshadowed by newer tech,
$IREN scales slowly until it has the capacity to go 'all-in' at the start of a new hardware cycle.
This strategy allowed
$IREN to quickly emerge from merely a 'top 10' miner (by monthly
$BTC output), to the number 1 operator in the space within a timeframe of just ~1 year.
$IREN is following that exact same playbook today, but with AI hardware instead of mining ASICs.
Instead of over-committing on H100/H200s, years after that GPU generation came out,
$IREN took it slow, and focused instead on building out 100s of MW of data center infrastructure (both liquid & air-cooled) at its Childress (TX) campus.
Today, the company is in a position in which it can casually purchase 50k units of new Blackwells (as it did last month), and become one of the fastest growing clouds in the sector.
Likewise, we can observe the same pattern at
$IREN's next flagship site: Sweetwater 1 (1.4 GW).
Many investor seem to grow inpatient that management still hasn't signed large-scale deals for that new site yet, but
$IREN is obviously just following the exact same strategy...
This time with the Rubin GPU generation, which won't be produced at scale until H1 2027.
There are several other reasons, that I haven't covered here, that make up
$IREN's cycling strategy (such as financing, negotiating leverage, etc.), but the point remains.
You can't make an apples to oranges comparison and label is as "facts".
It's clear to me that your post is surface-level analayis at best... good for engagement, but not the type of content that will age very well.
That said, based on your commentary, it seems like you have genuine interest in getting deeper into the
$IREN rabbit hole.
I hope my feedback is of some help in that regard. 🤝