Mikko Ohtamaa retweeted
Jun 12
The evolution of Ethereum vault standards, and the shortcomings of the original ERC-4626
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The Daily Audit: The Verification of Structural Trend Transitions 👣
Yesterday’s session remained entirely devoid of operational momentum until 13:00 EST, when sudden geopolitical headlines regarding Trump's war stance injected immediate volatility into the marketplace. Responsive bulls aggressively capitalized on this catalyst to wrestle control of the immediate order flow.
THE EXECUTION:Following an extended multi-day bearish distribution, our framework requires a strict, non-negotiable two-part sequence to confirm a full reversal: a decisive Change of Character (ChoCH), followed by a subsequent Break of Structure (BOS). Yesterday successfully executed the initial ChoCH, prompting us to officially upgrade our M15 structural bias to flat-bullish.
Notably, precisely as this is compiled (04:15 EST), the overnight session has just completed an aggressive buy-side liquidity grab directly above yesterday’s session high. We are monitoring this overnight sweep closely for a potential Short execution signature, strictly adhering to our technical checklist. We refuse to speculate on headline-driven macro duration; our task is simply to log how the algorithmic tape responds to the exhaustion of these buy orders.
THE PROTOCOL:
LP 1 (7374.75 - Overnight Low): Immediate downside target for potential localized long absorption signatures during the cash session.
LP 3 (7232.50 - Structural Low): Our absolute macro defensive floor on the M15 matrix.
LP 4 (7421.50 - PDH / Structural High): Absolute structural ceiling. The overnight session has swept this extreme; monitoring closely for cash open confirmation.
Bias: Neutral / FLAT-BULLISH, navigating an intermediate trend transition.
MINDSET:Only those operators who possess a completely rigid, repeatable system backed by a mathematically proven positive expectancy can actively participate in the game of probability. The vast majority of market participants do not possess a system; instead, they frantically grab isolated technical concepts and utilize the word "probability" as nothing more than a psychological shield for hope.
The more deeply you internalize how probability actually functions, the more clearly you will understand that what is required of you is exhaustive, meticulous preparation before you ever touch the live tape. Edge is not built through philosophy or broad ideas; it is built through absolute precision. An entry concept only gains commercial validity when you define every surrounding variable as an immutable rule: your exact exit parameters, your fixed risk-to-reward metrics, your position sizing models, and your precise conditions for passing on a trade. Stop hoping for probability to save an unverified strategy. Build a complete, rigid structure first, and let the mathematics do the work.
The full structural breakdown of yesterday's headline shift and today's open parameters are live. The SOP document is available in the welcome letter.
$ES_F #TradingProtocol #PriceAction #SOP01 #FuturesTrading
pierscalamandre.substack.com…
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Jun 7
HYPE back to #1.
Filtered for 10M plus TVL, six months minimum age, max drawdown under 5 percent. The hard filters, not the vanity ones.
~20% percent 1M annualized ( @TradingProtocol does not account for our epoch model)
@grvt_io next at 10.5. @avantprotocol and the rest of the looping crowd in the single digits.
Independent data via @tradingprotocol. Verify it yourself.
@USDT0_to deposits open, and some USDC capacity just opened up on @base.
Btw @Main_St_Finance, the math still does not math, as we covered before (link below). We are happy to buy protection on this in size. If anyone are willing to bet those returns are achievable on the strategy you disclose, DM us. Free money for you if you are right.
Fade D2 at your own risk.
Jun 7
Where does the yield come from in epoch #30 for HYPE ?
Proof of ‘@saylor puts’ below through @flowdesk_co.
As flagged in our hXXI end of epoch commentary last week, we were watching $STRC flow and positioning closely for possible stress.
We did not expect Saylor to do the second worst thing short of just saying ‘STEADY LADS’ if you are running a ponzi.
Our positioning did not mind, even if we are not on the Saylor speed dial.
These BTC puts bought on $BTC mid 70’s settled deep ITM. On a relative value framework, after delta hedging, they contributed roughly 1/3 of epoch performance.
The main driver was $HYPE gamma hedging and partially vega. HYPE works in synergy with D2HYPE, which is unwinding, but as a tactical strategy has 30 days to return funds. We keep dancing while the volatility DJ is playing.
$ETH was a negative contributor early as realized vol was abysmal before it followed BTC into the abyss.
We were laughing at the last @_choppingblock when the hosts sounded ecstatic about ETH relative performance. 🤣
There are those who host a podcast. And there are those who run money.
@USDT0_to deposits open, link below.
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Jun 6
Last epoch. 21 percent APR net on USDC. 11.3M on @arbitrum, 15M plus across the flagship book.
Don’t take our word for it. Independent data from @TradingProtocol, one vault.
This is the Arbitrum vault. Deposit on Arbitrum, @base or @HyperliquidX, same strategy, same forward returns.
Curve above the T-bill the whole way. The T-bill outperformed most of DeFi this cycle, at a fraction of the risk. We sit well above it. Max drawdown -0.4 percent over 1.5 years. 21 percent APR net last epoch.
This epoch we raised the @USDT0_to sleeve. Now a portfolio margin asset on Hyperliquid. As @paoloardoino would teach us, a larger sleeve lets us actively manage issuer risk. (We made money on the USDC depeg early on) It is in the track record.
Fade D2 at your own risk.
Jun 6
Alpha Strategies (HYPE ) Epoch conclusion new epoch ✅
📊 Earning 21% APR net on USDC — in a time when DeFi's latest ponzi imploded around us.
Strong performance coming from BTC puts HYPE gamma hedging. And here's the part that matters: that came on only ~20% deployed capital.
The rest of DeFi is simply uninvestable right now. Imagine what this looks like at full size once our TradFi rails are fully onboarded (working on it 🫡 ).
For context: a double-digit USDC yield, generated on a fifth of the book, through a stretch that took down other "yield" products. That's the strategy working.
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📅 New Alpha Strategies (HYPE ) Epoch
• Deposits: Open now
• Trading starts: June 08
• Epoch ends: July 03
This epoch:
• Raising the @USDT0_to cap on @HyperliquidX — USDT0 is now first-class collateral on HL portfolio margin, so a larger sleeve lets us diversify stablecoin issuer risk properly. If you're interested in deploying $USDT reach out to the team
• Texas lending going live
• New counterparties onboarding: FalconX, Anchorage, Wintermute
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TLDR; Last epoch returned 21% APR net on USDC, with 1/5 of the book.
This is what institutional-grade yield looks like on-chain.
☀️ D2 Summer.
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Jun 3
Most yield protocols start with APY targets.
We start with what we refuse to underwrite. The 12% and the 20.5 Sharpe are what's left.
Thanks for the coverage @TradingProtocol
ForgeYields USDC is currently earning 12% annualised.
@ForgeYields allocates to looping / leveraged lending.
Pendle, Curve, Balancer, concentrated liquidity, and direct lending opportunities based on their Hallmark risk engine.
tradingstrategy.ai/trading-v…
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Jun 2
gm. it's not much but tried @tryquantio for the first time and locked in a tidy $58 swing. feels like breakfast money but proof of concept. exploring their onchain signals more today #crypto #tradingprotocol liquidity pool stakers
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The Daily Audit: Engineering Counterparties 👣
Yesterday, the bears attempted a major structural breakdown. Instead, it became a textbook manifestation of our core setup. The "Big Boys" drove the tape beneath the structural low to sweep the Sell-Side Liquidity (SSL), found their counterparties, and launched a clean 60 point reversal.
THE EXECUTION:Standardized, mechanical, and entirely stress-free. Eliminate unnecessary complexity. Your only task is to wait patiently for these liquidity traps to form without trying to invent moves in the middle of the range. If there is no reaction at our anchors, we do nothing. Simple.
THE PROTOCOL:
LP 1 (7353.75 - PDL) & LP 2 (7337): Key downside targets to monitor for institutional absorption.
LP 3 (7415.25 - PSH) & LP 4 (7433.25 - PDH): Immediate upside targets for potential counter-trend shorts.
Bias: Strictly Bullish. The structural floor held firmly on a closing basis.
MINDSET:I do not know my current losing streak, nor do I care about the monetary outcome of my recent trades. Individual results are completely irrelevant data. Detachment is not a feat of willpower; it is the logical result of doing the necessary historical testing before risking live capital.
The complete breakdown of yesterday's institutional trap and the mid-week map are live. The SOP document is available in the welcome letter.
$ES_F #TradingProtocol #PriceAction #SOP01 #FuturesTrading
pierscalamandre.substack.com…
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May 14
IDENTIFY: H1 Trend Direction.WAIT: M15 Price reaching Key Levels.CONFIRM: Valid 20-pip Wick Formation.ACTION: Trade the Rejection Only.RULE: No Wick, No Trade.Simple. Effective.#SWC #TradingProtocol
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May 5
A note on DeFi.
DeFi will be FIXED INCOME. Below are views purely on the state of fixed income in DeFi. No payments/stables etc.
The below are all best in class early stage fixed income plays that give exposure to a variety of market dynamics.
Cheap liquid tokens - markets:
@eulerfinance - super cheap beta
@aave - kelp / dao dislocation
@GearboxProtocol - exceptional tech
Cheap equity - markets:
@infiniFi - defi banking book
@Zharta - best bond market (non fungible tokens)
Cheap equity - strategy vaults (QIS):
@ipor_io - best strategy vault infra (also leaders in swap space)
@TradingProtocol - best quant /backtest infra
@symbioticfi - best vaults for usd efficiency (reuse each $)
Cheap equity - infrastructure:
@KeyringNetwork - leader in full stack vault and vault infrastructure for fixed income
Cheap equity - issuance:
@AssetoFinance - largest in Asia
@paretocredit - largest levered RWA TVL on morpho
Cheap token - issuance:
@plumenetwork - underpriced beta
Cheap token - distribution:
@turtledotxyz - category owners
A note on agents: I haven’t put agents on here because it is my feel that Agentic AI for Fixed Income in DeFi will be cannibalised by OpenAI / Anthropic. I feel Agents in FI DeFi will largely be a UX and data analysis play that will be levered by quants and PMs for portfolio analysis and research tasks. It is my view that Agents will not do convex portfolio optimisation / allocation across an efficient frontier as they are not designed for this task. I am not sure whether quants / PMs will indeed pay for this from a startup. My own circle of quants and PMs in HFs would suggest they will (are) building in house.
Attached article below about why we are where we are in DeFi and why DeFi is fixed income right now.
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May 4
Not really. It's because to makers, Rysk charges 12.5% fees on premiums vs 0.01% on Derive.
So generally that makes their premiums worse to users.
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We didn’t expect this many people to show up for our brunch.
Great conversations around vaults and DeFi infra.
Huge thanks to our partners for making this happen:
@ipor_io @TradingProtocol @1deltaDAO
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It’s been a month since Cannes! 🇫🇷
We hosted a full day with 200 founders, LPs, VCs, curators, and operators joining throughout the day across 3 curated sessions.
Despite some last-minute venue changes, the feedback has been overwhelmingly positive.
This is what we’re building with DFC:
a high-signal community of DeFi builders.
Grateful to everyone who showed up and made it happen.
Shoutout to our partners and sponsors:
@1deltaDAO @nordstern_fi @baltexio @TradingProtocol @Hash_Directors @Lemma_Solutions @bondoncredit @ipor_io
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Apr 29
I think deleting this auto reply might be a good idea too :
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Apr 29
💣 4 contract exploits in 48 hours! AI hackers have entered the “countdown-by-the-second” era. Can your contracts still hold up❓
Over the past 48 hours, 4 smart contract attacks have occurred one after another on the #ETH mainnet, with total losses exceeding $1.5M!
1️⃣ Onchain aggregator contract exploited, nearly $1M lost
Loss: $983K (384 yvWETH → 429 ETH)
Root cause: Missing access control in the execute function unlimited yvWETH approval from the victim
Tx: etherscan.io/tx/0xebaaab69ba…
2️⃣ Unauthorized third-party vault contract related to TradingProtocol exploited, nearly $400K lost
Loss: $398K
Root cause: Missing permission checks
Tx: etherscan.io/tx/0x6b04344d56…
3️⃣ BCB contract exploited due to a reentrancy vulnerability
Loss: $39.8K
Root cause: The all-too-familiar reentrancy vulnerability
Tx: etherscan.io/tx/0x879b365b16…
4️⃣ Arbitrary call vulnerability led to QNT asset losses
Loss: $124.9K
Root cause: EIP-7702 mechanism abuse missing permission checks in BatchCall → arbitrary call vulnerability
Tx: etherscan.io/tx/0x4f31f68df9…
With #AI entering the battlefield, hackers’ attacks are becoming more precise and faster than ever, compressing vulnerability discovery from “days” to “seconds.”
In the face of rapidly evolving smart contract security offense and defense, perhaps the most effective security measure is:
Fight magic with magic — AI vs AI ❗️
That is exactly why GoPlus Security launched #DeepScan, a next-generation AI-driven smart contract vulnerability discovery engine.
Built for project teams, developers, and security teams, DeepScan provides AI-based continuous and normalized auditing, protecting contract security across the full lifecycle with higher efficiency and lower cost.
📢 Project teams, developers, and security teams — in this countdown-by-the-second security battle, have you started using #DeepScan yet? 👇 deepscan.gopluslabs.io
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Apr 28
I'd say you were hacked if you sent your user funds there..
Tb clear. I don't know what happened beyond these tweets
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Apr 28
Just wanted to clarify that the exploited vault was permissionlessly listed in @TradingProtocol, not part of the protocol itself: tradingstrategy.ai/trading-v…
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