bob swede retweeted
.@fundstrat's Tom Lee says testing new Fed chair Kevin Warsh is one of three reasons a drawdown risk is building into the second half.
The full H2 outlook goes deeper on all three, where he and @MarkNewtonCMT see opportunity, and Fundstrat's June stock ideas: research.fundstratdirect.com…
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Ahora no debiera pasar algo muy diferente. La Fed no anticipa política monetaria, es data dependiente, y como un dato no hace tendencia, van a boludear con una narrativa de "transición" varios meses.
Warsh toma una Fed recortando, si puede no ser hawkish, tomará la moneda.
La inflación post pandemia dejó de ser "transitory" para los mercados en FOMC Diciembre 2021 (techo S&P). Es decir, recién con una inflación en 6.8% (subiendo a 7.0%) la Fed se dio cuenta que tenía un problema. Luego de eso vimos tremendo batacazo en Índices y Bonos.
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Valkyrie retweeted
Did you know:
The new Federal Reserve Chair, Kevin Warsh, appears in Epstein-related files.
His father-in-law, Ronald Lauder, president of the World Jewish Congress and heir to the Estée Lauder fortune, reportedly appears in the Epstein files over 900 times.
Kevin Warsh is also the 5th Jewish Federal Reserve Chair out of the past 8.
America or Israelica? You tell me
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Piyasalarda gözler Warsh Başkanlığındaki ilk Fed toplantısında bb.ht/N43zPT
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Space Cowboy retweeted
The new chairman of the Federal Reserve System, Kevin Warsh, is in the Epstein files.
His father-in-law Ronald Lauder, (president of the World Jewish Congress and owner of Estée Lauder), is in the Epstein files over 900 times.
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Weekblik: ’Kevin Warsh gaat niet te hard van stapel lopen bij eerste vergadering als nieuwe Fed-baas’ telegraaf.nl/financieel/week…
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bitcoin:native turun dari ~$82K di Mei ke $60K-an sekarang.
Sentimen pasar: Fear.
Minggu depan FOMC, Warsh mimpin meeting pertamanya sebagai Fed Chair.
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So far Trump has given corporations tarriff money that citizens paid for.
Gas companies money from citizens at the pump. Warsh gonna take care of the banks Billy.
And AI companies getting taxpayer for a piece of the pie. Who are we missing.
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Weekblik: ’Kevin Warsh gaat niet te hard van stapel lopen bij eerste vergadering als nieuwe Fed-baas’ telegraaf.nl/financieel/week…
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¿Qué tan hawkish podría ser Warsh?
No mucho. Y claro que los datos económicos son de giro de tendencia (growth⬆️labor⬆️inflation⬆️), pero la Fed no anticipa política monetaria, mira para el lado un buen tiempo. Año 2021, Powell repitió durante meses lo de "transitory inflation".
A 1 mes de este análisis, debo rectificar un poco.
En bolsa puede pasar que el orden de los factores si altera el producto, en este caso el timing. Ya hubo batacazo, Warsh te podría dar otro, pero tipo retest de low o incluso un higher low.
¿Qué tan hawkish puede ser Warsh?
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Would seem to be the case. Leaning towards removing the easing bias from the statement was about the only substantive thing I can remember from last FOMC, and I haven’t seen anything that would budge the positions of any of the voting members. I’m (perhaps erroneously) confident Warsh believes in the independence of the Fed.
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You know why Boston doesn’t have any R’s when they speak? They are all down in the south in our warshing machines and warsh rags
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While im in full schizo mode, Kevin Warsh is the 17th fed chair, he will usher in Bretton Woods 3.0. Pay no mind to his father in law
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「Warsh新議長がtrimmed mean PCE（現在2.3%前後）を重視するなら、標準core PCE（3.3%）よりインフレを低く見積もりやすいです。
結果、利上げニュアンスは出しても即時引き締めは避け、市場に『緩和余地あり』と映るかも。金は調整続きやすいが、意外ドブ寄りなら反発サプライズありそうです。
FOMC記者会見のトーン次第でドル円160超えか急落か、ボラ大ですね。」
Jun 12
PCE Explained Kevin Warsh’s Take 🧵
⭕️PCE = Personal Consumption Expenditures Price Index. The Fed’s preferred inflation gauge. Tracks what consumers actually pay for a broad basket of goods/services (unlike CPI). Core PCE strips out food & energy. Fed targets ~2%.
But new Fed Chair Kevin Warsh isn’t a fan of standard core PCE. He calls it only a “rough swag” too noisy from one off distortions and volatile outliers.
Warsh prefers trimmed mean PCE (Dallas Fed style): systematically removes the biggest price swings (high & low tails) each month for a cleaner signal on underlying inflation. Examples: wild drops in phone prices or spikes in freight costs get trimmed.
Why? Better isolates persistent generalized price pressures and their second order effects on the economy. Median PCE (Cleveland Fed) is another strong option he likes.
This could shift how the Fed thinks about policy.
#Fed #Inflation #PCE #KevinWarsh #Economy
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Ariztay Alarcon retweeted
10h
The crazy part nobody’s talking about…the new fed chair Kevin Warsh his family relationship with Epstein. 🤷🏼♂️🤷🏼♂️
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